1-2dollár ide vagy oda. :))) Úgy tűnik,minden keresztnél kitartanak a végsőkig. Aztán akinél szakad a cérna az fordít. Azért egy longot megér. ;-)
1-2dollár ide vagy oda. :))) Úgy tűnik,minden keresztnél kitartanak a végsőkig. Aztán akinél szakad a cérna az fordít. Azért egy longot megér. ;-)
oke, csak a multkorinal 82 es szintrol hadovaltak, es mar 83nal belenyultak, most meg 82 alatt vagyunk, es 7vgen G7, en beallok limit orderrel mai minimum ala is meg napi max fole is
Ennél a keresztnél az rsi ritkán megy 20 alá. De akkor is csak kevéssel. Viszont mostanában nagy a volatilitás a devizáknál. Lehet számítani még egy nagyobb slukkra.Én kb.80,5-re számítok.
De a japóknál megint szakadhat a cérna,így bármikor kilőhet. A csatorna alatt már csak a 79,75 lehet támaszték.
http://kepfeltoltes.hu/101008/usdjpy_www.kepfeltoltes.hu_.gif
usjen-t jol levertek
japokat gondolom leverte a viz, es mar keresik a kassza kulcsot
vagy nem:) megy az irány keresés csak találják meg végre...
eurjenre érdemes figyelni mert a konszolidáló csatornából kitört
ez aztán a nem várt rossz adat szvsz, de így legalább folytatódhatnak a trendek:)
Így valószínű, hogy nincs meg a a többség Berninek a következó FOMC találkozón.
BULLARD SAYS ECONOMY HASN'T SLOWED ENOUGH TO MAKE QE OBVIOUS
Morning Adviser Europe 10/8/2010 5:59:00 AM
Dollar Waits For Payrolls
By Gareth Berry
After briefly regaining its composure the dollar weakened again during the Asia session on the news that Moody's has placed China on review for a possible sovereign credit upgrade within 3 months. EURUSD traded 1.3873-1.3962, USDJPY 82.15-82.51. The dollar had better luck against gold, managing to hold onto most of yesterday's gains. Bullion is trading at $1134.90/oz at the time of writing, well back from yesterday's all-time high of around $1365/oz. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, the lone FOMC dissenter in 2010, reiterated his opposition to further easing measures as he is concerned about the long-term implications of current policy. Dallas Fed President Fisher said investors should not assume the Fed is on the path for further easing and he is doubtful of the effectiveness of additional asset purchases. Fisher will be an FOMC voter in 2011. Comments aside, the upcoming payrolls print will be significant for the Fed outlook. Our US economists expect +100k on private payrolls and -20k on headline with no change in the unemployment rate. If the payroll report is broadly in line with consensus, investors' pricing of further Fed easing is unlikely to change dramatically and the dollar will remain under pressure. But a strong positive surprise could boost Treasury yields and benefit the dollar and dollar-bloc currencies, given their correlation with US equities. A negative surprise will likely further weaken the dollar versus the yen and the Swiss franc via lower Treasury yields.
Research Spotlight "Flexible BoJ Fearsome" UBS G10 FX Strategy By increasing operational flexibility with its latest policy decision, the Bank of Japan has created greater potential for inducing yen weakness. That this hasn't yet been realized is in part due to offsetting developments in the US, but the BoJ itself hasn't yet used all the potential of Tuesday's statement. It may be keeping the new flexibility in its policy stance in reserve to cope with the aftermath of the Nov. 3 FOMC; this could yet open the way to a more aggressive brand of easing. Please see the "Flexible BoJ Fearsome" comment on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.35, 3m 1.25 ECB President Trichet did not offer any new insights in the press conference following the unchanged policy rate decision. His comments largely echoed his September remarks and he continued to sound cautious as uncertainty persists. Trichet said improvement in liquidity conditions and Euribor rates was a sign of normalization, rather than any policy signal, which our economists had anticipated he would say. The only comment Trichet offered on FX was that he opposed excess volatility and disorderly moves. His lack of opinion on current euro levels gave an implicit signal that the ECB is not at the point yet where currency levels are of concern. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn said that a sluggish European recovery is a concern and their base case does not call for a double-dip in the US.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 85 There was further interventionist rhetoric from Japan overnight. Prime Minister Kan said "we cannot overlook excessive currency moves", and pledged again to take decisive steps on FX as needed. Finance Minister Noda conceded that competitive currency devaluations are bad for the global economy, but he insisted that Japan's Sept 15 intervention was not intended to be a large-scale operation to target a specific level, but only intended to stop excessive moves. He said there has been no change in Japan's position to take firm measures against currency strength when needed, regardless of the fact that the G7 is due to convene today. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said a sharp yen rise will affect Japan's economy through business sentiment and corporate profits, but he would not comment on whether current yen moves are sharp. He added that "the current yen rises reflect heightening uncertainty over the global economy, particularly the U.S. economy". The BoJ minutes from the August 30 and September 6-7 policy meetings showed all the signs of a policy board preparing to ease, as they did on August 30, and subsequently again earlier this week. Some board members noted that there was still room for interest rates to come down. Another said that the reason for the yen's rise is because the market thinks there is a gap between the easing stances of the Fed and the BoJ. Some even said that the BoJ needs to act pre-emptively to limit the impact on Japan of an economic downturn in US and Europe.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.96, 3m 0.93 RBA Deputy Governor Battellino said it would be a mistake for Australia to try to manage the AUD, effectively ruling out the possibility of FX intervention. He pointed to the important role a strong currency plays in helping the economy
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.59, 3m 1.47 The BoE decision was a non-event as expected and investor focus now shifts to the release of the MPC minutes on October 20 to see how the votes panned out. That same day the Chancellor of the Exchequer will provide details of the government spending plans. We remain cautious on sterling ahead of then. At 0.3% m/m and 6.0% y/y, manufacturing output was better than expected and industrial production was in line with consensus at 0.3% m/m and 4.2% y/y. Our economists note PMI and CBI point to continued growth in manufacturing. Halifax house prices declined more than expected on a monthly basis in September at -3.6%.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.06 Labour data is due in Canada. The net change in employment is expected to dip to 10.0k from 35.8k and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 8.1%. Even though nonfarm payrolls in the US will dictate USDCAD movements, the Canadian data will influence relative value via the non-USD crosses as the disappointing building permits did at -9.2% m/m versus consensus -2.0% m/m.
SEK Targets: EURSEK 1m 9.35, 3m 9.30 The Riksbank's First Deputy Governor Oeberg said Sweden's output gap will close by 2013 and the Riksbank should increase the repo rate in the months ahead, which helped push EURSEK lower. Oeberg's comments increased the attractiveness of SEK given the Riksbank's tightening bias versus broader easing elsewhere.
FX Technicals
EURCHF 1.3697 resistance EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.3896 favours the extension of bull trend towards 1.4194. Near-term support holds at 1.3799 ahead of 1.3637 USDJPY BEARISH Bearish trend remains intact; break of 82.88 exposes 79.75. Resistance remains at 83.99 ahead of 85.40. GBPUSD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.6069 would expose 1.6276. Support at 1.5670 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Next support below 0.9500 lies at 0.9078. Resistance at 0.9739 ahead of 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Sharp rise through 0.9850 and 0.9905 exposes 1.000 psychological resistance. Support comes in at 0.9773. USDCAD BEARISH Recovery has resistance at 1.0380. Violation of 1.0108 shifts focus to 0.9931 with scope for 0.9820 next. EURCHF BULLISH Clearance of 1.3482 puts odds in favor of bullish trend; expect gains to target 1.3697 measured objective. Support at 1.3265. EURGBP BULLISH Pressure on 0.8808 with next resistance at 0.8894. Support holds at 0.8689 ahead of 0.8563 EURJPY BULLISH Upside potential capped at 116.68 ahead of 119.33. Near-term support comes in at 113.89 ahead of 111.47 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
The dollar started the session significantly weaker before investors pared positions ahead of Friday's payrolls report. The ECB and BoE decisions provided no surprises and Fed easing expectations remained a weight on the dollar as EURUSD breached 1.40. But then it sharply dropped back and the dollar made up a lot of lost ground and then some versus most of the G10. Gold set an all-time high around $1365 before settling back to $1334.75 at the time of writing and equities finished flat. EURUSD traded 1.3857-1.4027, USDJPY 82.12-83.03. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, the lone FOMC dissenter in 2010, reiterated his opposition to further easing measures as he is concerned on long-term implications of current policy. Dallas Fed President Fisher said investors should not assume the Fed is on the path for further easing and he is doubtful on the effectiveness of additional asset purchases. Fisher will be a FOMC voter in 2011. Comments aside, the upcoming payrolls print will be significant for the Fed outlook. Our US economists expect +100k on private payrolls and -20 on headline with no change in the unemployment rate. If the payroll report comes in broadly in line with consensus, then investors's pricing in of further Fed easing is unlikely to change dramatically and the dollar will remain under pressure. But a strong positive surprise could boost Treasury yields and benefit the dollar and dollar-bloc currencies, given their correlation with US equities. A negative surprise will further weaken the dollar versus the yen and the Swiss franc via lower Treasury yields.
Arany várható volt. Ennél feljebb már nem sokáig lehetett volna húzni.Rsi 90fölött volt naposon 1360-nál bepróbáltam egy shortot. :))) Az olajat nem tudom,de nézted a gázt?
RSI 80 Stoc 90 szerinted hova meny még az égbe. Majd korekcio után .
Na jól van sziasztok...
A fizetős blogon folytatom, ott megtaláltok.
:DDDD
Mert jelezte az ot-to indikátor, kár hogy nem használod:))
és ta alapján miért fordult a levegőben? (olaj, ezüst, arany, stb)
