Lassan lehet, hogy ezeket is irni kellene a célárak topikba....
még emlékszem a gbpusd-re ahol szintén elég lenti értékek voltak...
Lassan lehet, hogy ezeket is irni kellene a célárak topikba....
még emlékszem a gbpusd-re ahol szintén elég lenti értékek voltak...
De, ha jól rémlik, akkor 1,25, és 1,15 volt még egy hónapja a várakozásuk.:)
Lassan már letelik az az 1hónap,amióta változtattak rajta. A 3m még bejöhet.
A dollár erősödését várják, és mellette az euró gyengülését is.
Még egy kérdés:
Tudod amator.
Az eur gyengül vagy az usd fog erősödni a várakozásaik szerint?
De még nekem nagyon úgy tűnik, hogy elszalad 1,41-42 környékére.
Akkor kár volt eldobálni a shortokat, pozitiv swap mellett....
EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.35, 3m 1.25
Ez mit jelent? Hogy ide várják, vagy csak valamilyen szint náluk. Mert ha 1,25-re várják az nem kicsit viharos csökkenés lehet, bár 3 hónap van rá...
Én már semmiben nem hiszek.
Aranyra h4psar-nál dobtam egy shortot. Követő zárta, most megint felette van....
Most tényleg volt rés.
Morning Adviser Europe 10/11/2010 6:17:00 AM
Euro Unease Emerges
By Gareth Berry
It was a relatively quite Asia session with Japan on holiday and the weekend G7/IMF/World Bank meetings failing to produce any decision points that markets could react to. EURUSD traded 1.3920-1.4012, USDJPY 81.39-82.37. Price action on Friday evening was dictated by the US payrolls report. Both the headline print and the private payrolls component disappointed expectations. US 2y yields fell to another lifetime low of 33.5bp, which piled further downward pressure on USDJPY, and took the pair to a new 15-year low. The euro saw some erratic price swings immediately after the numbers, but soon settled back to pre-announcement levels.
Our US economics team now believe that the FOMC will formally announce renewed balance sheet expansion on Nov 3. The change in forecast comes after a week in which Fed officials continued to express concern about the state of the US recovery, and to make the case for a pre-emptive monetary policy response. Nevertheless, our economists see a risk that, after rallying hard on the prospect of QE, the US Treasury market could yet be disappointed if the Fed fails to commit to buying a large and specific sum of Treasury securities over several quarters. The September payrolls report confirmed that the trend in private employment growth was fairly steady in Q3. However, the report also showed a sharp decline in government payrolls which was much broader than Census-related effects could explain.
The weekend G7/IMF/World Bank meetings ended without any specific agreement on FX matters and the issue will likely resurface at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers which begins on October 22. More specifically, there was no official criticism of Japan's decision to intervene in the FX market by selling yen. We believe this increases the chance of a further round of intervention should the yen continue to appreciate.
EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.35, 3m 1.25 ECB President Trichet said he does not believe the term "currency wars" reflects the current reality, a view also expressed by ECB Governing Council Member Weber. Both agreed that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that the dollar is currently not in line with economic fundamentals and that he is not happy with the euro having reached $1.40. ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny said that the euro's increase is not helping the Eurozone recovery. Juncker added that there is no need for a new global currency deal. France's Finance Minister Lagarde said that, as far as currencies are concerned, the G7 agreed that concerted action is preferable to unilateral action. Referring to the euro's current strength, ECB Governing Council Member Mersch said one should not look excessively at bilateral exchange rates, and pointed out that the euro's effective exchange rate in Q3 was not higher than it was in Q2. ECB Executive Board Member Stark continued to take a moderately hawkish stance, noting that the risks to the inflation outlook remain "slightly tilted to the upside". He expressed concern that maintaining accommodative monetary policy for too long can pose serious risks both to the economy and to price stability. He did concede though that the phasing out of unconventional measures would need to be gradual.
JPY
Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 85 There was no specific public criticism of Japan's FX intervention policy at the series of weekend meetings, which raises the risk of further intervention in our view. Finance Minister Noda emerged from the G7 meeting to say that "we did not discuss anything about the future, but I believe we've gained understanding on our basic stance". Noda and US Treasury Secretary Geithner also had a bilateral meeting, at which Noda explained the details of Japan's fiscal stimulus steps. Noda said no specific mention of Japan's intervention policy was made.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.06 Canada's Finance Minister Flaherty said that IMF/G20 countries need to work towards "rules of engagement" on the circumstances that would justify FX intervention. Flaherty said that although he is concerned about Canada's weak export growth, no currency intervention is being considered. Looking ahead to the upcoming G20 meetings, he said he does not expect any complete resolution of currency discussions even then. Employment declined by -6.6k in September, falling well short of consensus expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower to 8.0% (cons. 8.1%, prev. 8.1%). The BoC's senior loan officer survey showed an overall easing in business lending conditions to Q3. This was the fourth successive quarter in which loan availability improved.
FX Technicals
USDJPY support at 79.75 EURUSD BULLISH Violation of 1.4029 will trigger further acceleration to 1.4194. Near-term support holds at 1.3799 ahead of 1.3637 USDJPY BEARISH There is little support till 79.75. Resistance remains at 83.03 ahead of 83.99 GBPUSD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.6018/69 would expose 1.6276. Support at 1.5670 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Next support below 0.9500 lies at 0.9078. Resistance at 0.9739 ahead of 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 0.9918 ahead of 1.000 psychological resistance. Support at 0.9709 reaction low. USDCAD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.0380 holds, expect losses to target 1.0063 with scope for 0.9931 and 0.9820 next. EURCHF BULLISH Clearance of 1.3482 puts odds in favor of bullish trend; expect gains to target 1.3697 measured objective. Support at 1.3265. EURGBP BULLISH Stalled in front of 0.8808 with next resistance at 0.8894. Support holds at 0.8689 ahead of 0.8563 EURJPY BULLISH Upside potential found resistance at 115.68; break of the level would expose 116.68 and 119.33 next. Near-term support defined at 113.26 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
eur/usd -t nem szeretem tradelni, de este dobtam ra egy shortot 3990 -> 4040 stoppal
lassan zarom is, korrekcioban nem hiszek, ambar mar raferne sztem...is
azt nem is néztem. de akkor a longom ki is stoppolták...
nem.
Szinte az összes dollár keresztnél van volt rés. Az eurusd-ben be is próbáltam,de nem bíztam benne én sem,hogy betöltik és 10pip után kivettem. Pedig ma lehet,hogy tötymörgés lesz,így van rá lehetőség a rés betöltésre.
Az usdjpy meg szépen padlózott,de egyből fel is hozták.
Már annyira fosok, hogy a reggeli tetszőlegesen választható résekből se mertem semmit se megjátszani.....
Lassan be is töltik mindet. (Tudom, Sanquis mindjárt mondja, hogy nincs, de a Stooq mutatja. És be is szokták tölteni. Kivéve Sp500-as réseket, mert ott 15 db után elvesztettem a fonalat....)
nem értem továbbra sem.. arany magasan van... miközben a részvények erősödnek..
IMF is eladott.. a kamatok alacsonyak...
az arany elvileg menekülési befektetés..válságkor amikor már nincs mibe..mint a chf..
azt értem én alacsony a betéti kamat akkor befektetek..de miért aranyba.. ami csúcsokon van.. miért nem ingatlanba ami alacsonyan.. vagy részvénybe..vagy vállalati kötvénybe...
szerintem ez aranybuborék..mesterségesen tartják fenn az árfolyamot és egy csomó ország kiszáll belőle..csökkentik a készleteiket..
vagy még a java hátra van a fekete levesnek..
vagy államok pénzügyi szervezetek támasztják meg arannyal a gazdaságukat..(de minek..mikor az informatika..infrastruktúra...logisztikai központok.jobb befektetés)
hetfo: jpy, us & cad: bank holiday
csendes napnak igerkezik