Morning Adviser Asia 8/29/2010 11:18:00 PM

BoJ To Meet?

By Geoffrey Yu

Markets are set to begin the week on a more positive note as Fed Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech just about provided the reassurance needed under current circumstances. US equity markets ended Friday on a high note as Bernanke did not rule out further balance sheet expansion, saying that "the committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly". However, he chose not to set out the benchmark for further QE, noting that the "specific criteria" had not been determined yet. Our economists note that his speech gave no signal for near-term change in policy and this would probably be enough to prevent any major downside in the dollar.

Although the US economy is going through a softer patch than expected, additional stimulus is probably unwarranted so soon after the August FOMC meeting, where a shift in policy was already signalled. As such, we expect the Fed to remain on data watch for the coming weeks, beginning with payrolls ahead, which is expected to remain soft (UBSe. +75k, cons. +47k). The FOMC minutes and manufacturing ISM are also due. We expect EURUSD to remain range-bound in the near term, while investor focus this week will probably shift back to USDJPY where the Japanese government appears inching ever-closer to acting to push the pair higher. There is wide talk of an emergency BoJ meeting today as BoJ Governor Shirakawa arrived back in Japan ahead of schedule. Ahead today we expect markets to be somewhat quieter as it is a bank holiday in the UK.

EUR

Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500

ECB President Trichet spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday week but offered very little in terms of policy guidance and spoke more on the longer-term economic prospets for the Eurozone. Trichet again warned on the need to reign in imbalances and government debt levels.. The ECB meets this week and we, along with consensus, expect an unchanged policy rate and do not expect officials to announce any new measures. But it will be interesting if they mention any extension of liquidity operations, particularly following ECB Governing Council member Weber's comments on the 3-month liquidity operations. Sentiment surveys are due across the Eurozone today. We remain short EURCHF as a trade recommendation..

JPY

Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00

BoJ Governor Shirakawa arrived back in Japan ahead of schedule, raising the prospect of an emergency BoJ meeting today. The central bank is widely expected to expand its loan facility but it cannot set intervention policy. PM Kan is also expected to meet Shirakawa early this week. Prime Minister Kan noted on Friday that the government would take strong steps to tackle the rise in the JPY and these measures would be announced on August 31st. This is the strongest signal yet that action will be taken but investors were not impressed, as the sense of urgency is still not present and investors remain doubtful over how effective any action could be. On the data front, industrial production and retail sales are the key releases this week.

oda mehet, van eleg bajuk nekik is,.........

egyebkent 1.6 dodo nekik is jobban tetszett mint az 1.2as

nem tudnak nekik segiteni, hogyan is tudnanak (es sztem nem is akarnak)

Nem. Az USA-ba utazott a BoJ elnöke. Mit keresett volna svájcban?

meg a svajciak sztem mar ezek utan ovatosabbak lesznek az interel, mert mar igyis 6-7mlrd eurot buktak, es nekik egyebb mas gond is van az interel

http://vg.hu/penzugy/devizapiac/dragasagra-van-itelve-a-svajci-frank-325826

egyenlore varakozas a shortokkal: pedig jo beszalok lennenek: fontjen, eurjen, eurchf, es esetleg usdjen

egy kicsit usa is bekavart, nem ertem mire ez az euforia, nagyon nem hianyzott, sztem

reggel delelott okosabbak leszunk

van meg egy kisseb eurjen shortom 110 folottrol azt 110 stoppolom

nem úgy volt, h. hétvégén Svájc és Japán kavarnak együtt?

Egyébként én intervencióra számítok, lehetőleg egy időpontban mindkettőtől, különben amint az egyik interveniál, a másikra vetik magukat a kiugrók is.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703669004575458510641913260.html?mod=mktw

BOJ Poised for Emergency Meeting in Response to Yen

Nekem ez olcsóbb megoldásnak tűnik mint az intervenció. Azt miből tervezik szerinted?

A japánok miből terveznek kötvényt vásárolni? Adósságból?

Ezek a megbeszélések átalában nem kerülnek nyilvánosságra. Nem tartok elképzelhtetlennek egy újjabb nagyarányú USA kötvényvásárlást a japánok részéről. Ez esetben nagy jen rallyra lehet felkészülni.

Ebben igazad van. Nagyban függ attol, hogy ki mit tradel és mikor akar beszállni. A kétféle vélemény között mi a különbség? Mindkettö napi?

mit szervezkednek a japanok a svajciakkal a hetvegen nem tudod veletlenul?

mind a kettot aggasztja az eros devizaja?

nem orulok az ilyeneknek, jo lenne vissza nyitni az eu/jen meg a font/jen shortokat, egesz szep magasagogbol lehetne inditani,

talan meg az usdjen short is jo lehet

nem ertem miert nem torodnek bele a piaci folyamatokba?

(es legalabb mi is tudnank keresni egy kicsit)

Nem térdreborulást vártam minden nap, csak nem volt rá reakció, se pro se kontra, amikor bemásoltam, és azután se, hogy nem tettem. Az érdektelenséget tapasztaltam. Most, hogy tudom, érdekel téged és másokat is be fogom másolni, ha elfelejtem olvassátok a fejemre.:)

Köszi szépen! Nagyon örülnék, ha a máskor is belinkelnéd ezeket az elemzéseket.

Köszönöm.

EURJPY short zárva, mert hétvégére nem hagyok promt pozit. A vasárnapi nyitás idegbeteg lehet, de bekavarhat a hétvégi Berni BoJ egyeztetés is.

Szívesen.

Ez a SAXO reakció a mai napra.

Trading

27 August 2010

FX Closing Note: Bonds and JPY retreat after Bernanke

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

We were right in putting the focus on the bond market and the JPY ahead of the Bernanke speech, though the reactions across equities and the rest of FX were odd to say the least. Is the market reading this thing right?

Mr. Bernanke brought little to the table in today's speech, though some could argue there was something for everyone here. While the chairman apparently tried to suggest that the conditions are right for the recovery to continue (the "preconditions" for a growth acceleration in 2011 "appear to remain in place.") On the non-traditional quantitative easing front, Mr. Bernanke had nothing at all to say, only a broad statement that the Fed "will do all that it can" and is "prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly". This last statement is an obvious hint at the potential for QE2, but the general ambiguity of his rhetoric suggests that the Fed is in wait-and-pray mode for now and there were no specifics thrown out about what future QE might look like, other than Bernanke saying that continuing to buy long dated treasuries is an option.

The market reaction was mixed relative to our expectations. We suspected that Mr. Bernanke would have little to say, and that was largely true. We expected that if this was the case, that the bond market and the JPY would sell off - that was largely true as well. USDJPY ended the day almost a figure above yesterday's close, for example. But the surprise to us was the comeback in risk appetite from this speech, which suggests the market sentiment was at least temporarily too bearish since there was nothing particularly bullish about the statement in and of itself. And with risk appetite headed up, the USD headed south, so the biggest action was actually in the likes of the old highest-beta pairs like AUDJPY, which saw an enormous pop on the day.

Assessing the reaction

Now the question becomes one of the durability of this reaction. We've crossed back above a critical inflection zone in AUDUSD (0.8860) and the equity market emphatically found support at the 1040 area again in the US S&P500. The action in EURUSD today was far more ambiguous, with a marginal new high again not holding particularly well - so the jury still out there. It is hard to understand why anything Bernanke had to say should be considered a market positive and have to imagine that this is a rally based on negative sentiment getting ahead of itself - perhaps something that will last three days to two weeks, if we're to pretend we have the ability to predict such a thing. Stay tuned...

köszi

Ez a mai USA ajánlás.

Morning Adviser Americas 8/27/2010 11:27:00 AM

Jackson Hole Awaits

By Geoffrey Yu

The text of Fed Chairman Bernanke's much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, should be released at 1400 GMT. No Q&A is anticipated. By now, sentiment in markets appears to have shifted towards a despair of sorts - what if anything can Bernanke actually say to mollify worries on recent US data softness in between FOMC meetings?

The Fed might need further assistance from the fiscal side of things, but it will be interesting to see if Bernanke announces any new possibilities beyond the ones that have already been discussed, i.e., extending the "extended period" language, reducing interest on reserves. Should the Bernanke speech pass without much incident, we could see safe havens supported as investors may take that as a sign that further easing, which would have been risk-supportive, is not in the cards.

EURUSD traded 1.2693-1.2716, USDJPY 84.28-84.85.

Research Spotlight "The Shamrock And The Yen" UBS G10 FX Strategy

Japanese institutional investors have long been active in the Eurozone's peripheral bond markets. Although Greek debt holdings have been disposed of, Japanese portfolios remain heavy with Irish, Spanish, and Portuguese paper. Ireland's ratings downgrade is a reminder that the Eurozone debt crisis has not been resolved. Any repatriation resulting from further debt liquidation could add to appreciation pressure on the yen and make life even more difficult for the MoF and BoJ. Please see the Foreign Exchange Note "The Shamrock And The Yen" on www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500

Regional CPI released in Germany overnight was broadly softer than last month's reading, suggesting price pressures remain contained even after a strong quarter of growth.

We remain short EURUSD through a 6m put spread with strikes at 1.1000 and parity.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00

Prime Minister Kan noted overnight that the government would take strong steps to tackle the rise in the JPY and these measures would be announced on August 31st. This is the strongest signal yet that action will be taken but investors were not impressed, as the sense of urgency is still not present and investors remain doubtful over how effective any action could be.

Core CPI for July fell -1.1% as expected, with the pace of deflation accelerating slightly from the -1.0% seen in June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.2% (cons. 5.3%, prev. 5.3%).

CHF Targets: USDCHF 1m 1.0200, 3m 1.1300 / EURCHF 1m 1.3000, 3m 1.3000

The Swiss KoF indicator was weaker than expected at 2.18. Our economists noted that the sub-indices suggest external conditions were softer but domestic demand remains strong .Elevated KOF levels will support the Swiss franc as investors look towards the September policy meeting, where we expect some form of policy tightening, and also as they rotate among the safe haven currencies. The employment data for Q2 2010 recorded a new all-time high in the number of employed.

GBP Targets: EURGBP 1m 0.85, 3m 0.85 / GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500

UK GDP figures were better than expected at 1.2%, revised higher from 1.1% previously as household spending was firmer and inventories also gained. Our economists note that inventories have made a large contribution to GDP growth in Q2. This is unlikely to be repeated going forward but the surveys continue to suggest that even without that support, economic growth has been healthy in Q3. In that context, next week's PMIs are key.

We continue to see sterling edging lower from current levels as risk appetite remains soft and relative growth differentials move against the UK.

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3334 found support at 1.2588, a break here would expose 1.2434 with scope for 1.2152 next. Near-term resistance holds at 1.2933 USDJPY BEARISH 83.60 marks the next bear trigger, violation of the level would expose 79.75 key support. 85.20 continues to cap the upside GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral with 1.5713 and 1.5324 marking the key near-term directional triggers. 1.5999 marks a key resistance level. USDCHF BEARISH Continues to define lower lows. Focus is on 1.0131 break of which would open 0.9918. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0466 ahead of 1.0676 AUDUSD BEARISH Outlook is bearish with initial support defined at 0.8663 ahead of 0.8531. Only a move above 0.9080 would hurt the negative tone. USDCAD BULLISH While 1.0677 caps the upside initially, next resistance lies at 1.0853. Initial support lies at 1.0511 ahead of 1.0248 EURCHF BEARISH Pressure on 1.2972, recently defined trend low, clearance of which will expose 1.2755 next. Near-term resistance at 1.3242 ahead of 1.3458 EURGBP BEARISH Trend is bearish with focus on 0.8068 and 0.7974 support levels. Short-term resistance is defined at 0.8247 ahead of 0.8363 EURJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure found support at 105.44; breach of this would expose 100.00 psychological support level. Near-term resistance is defined at 108.87 ahead of 111.11.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.

OK. Akkor minden reggel belinkelem.:)) Hétfő kivételével.