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Morning Adviser Americas 8/27/2010 11:27:00 AM

Jackson Hole Awaits

By Geoffrey Yu

The text of Fed Chairman Bernanke's much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, should be released at 1400 GMT. No Q&A is anticipated. By now, sentiment in markets appears to have shifted towards a despair of sorts - what if anything can Bernanke actually say to mollify worries on recent US data softness in between FOMC meetings?

The Fed might need further assistance from the fiscal side of things, but it will be interesting to see if Bernanke announces any new possibilities beyond the ones that have already been discussed, i.e., extending the "extended period" language, reducing interest on reserves. Should the Bernanke speech pass without much incident, we could see safe havens supported as investors may take that as a sign that further easing, which would have been risk-supportive, is not in the cards.

EURUSD traded 1.2693-1.2716, USDJPY 84.28-84.85.

Research Spotlight "The Shamrock And The Yen" UBS G10 FX Strategy

Japanese institutional investors have long been active in the Eurozone's peripheral bond markets. Although Greek debt holdings have been disposed of, Japanese portfolios remain heavy with Irish, Spanish, and Portuguese paper. Ireland's ratings downgrade is a reminder that the Eurozone debt crisis has not been resolved. Any repatriation resulting from further debt liquidation could add to appreciation pressure on the yen and make life even more difficult for the MoF and BoJ. Please see the Foreign Exchange Note "The Shamrock And The Yen" on www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500

Regional CPI released in Germany overnight was broadly softer than last month's reading, suggesting price pressures remain contained even after a strong quarter of growth.

We remain short EURUSD through a 6m put spread with strikes at 1.1000 and parity.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00

Prime Minister Kan noted overnight that the government would take strong steps to tackle the rise in the JPY and these measures would be announced on August 31st. This is the strongest signal yet that action will be taken but investors were not impressed, as the sense of urgency is still not present and investors remain doubtful over how effective any action could be.

Core CPI for July fell -1.1% as expected, with the pace of deflation accelerating slightly from the -1.0% seen in June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.2% (cons. 5.3%, prev. 5.3%).

CHF Targets: USDCHF 1m 1.0200, 3m 1.1300 / EURCHF 1m 1.3000, 3m 1.3000

The Swiss KoF indicator was weaker than expected at 2.18. Our economists noted that the sub-indices suggest external conditions were softer but domestic demand remains strong .Elevated KOF levels will support the Swiss franc as investors look towards the September policy meeting, where we expect some form of policy tightening, and also as they rotate among the safe haven currencies. The employment data for Q2 2010 recorded a new all-time high in the number of employed.

GBP Targets: EURGBP 1m 0.85, 3m 0.85 / GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500

UK GDP figures were better than expected at 1.2%, revised higher from 1.1% previously as household spending was firmer and inventories also gained. Our economists note that inventories have made a large contribution to GDP growth in Q2. This is unlikely to be repeated going forward but the surveys continue to suggest that even without that support, economic growth has been healthy in Q3. In that context, next week's PMIs are key.

We continue to see sterling edging lower from current levels as risk appetite remains soft and relative growth differentials move against the UK.

FX Technicals

EURUSD BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3334 found support at 1.2588, a break here would expose 1.2434 with scope for 1.2152 next. Near-term resistance holds at 1.2933 USDJPY BEARISH 83.60 marks the next bear trigger, violation of the level would expose 79.75 key support. 85.20 continues to cap the upside GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral with 1.5713 and 1.5324 marking the key near-term directional triggers. 1.5999 marks a key resistance level. USDCHF BEARISH Continues to define lower lows. Focus is on 1.0131 break of which would open 0.9918. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0466 ahead of 1.0676 AUDUSD BEARISH Outlook is bearish with initial support defined at 0.8663 ahead of 0.8531. Only a move above 0.9080 would hurt the negative tone. USDCAD BULLISH While 1.0677 caps the upside initially, next resistance lies at 1.0853. Initial support lies at 1.0511 ahead of 1.0248 EURCHF BEARISH Pressure on 1.2972, recently defined trend low, clearance of which will expose 1.2755 next. Near-term resistance at 1.3242 ahead of 1.3458 EURGBP BEARISH Trend is bearish with focus on 0.8068 and 0.7974 support levels. Short-term resistance is defined at 0.8247 ahead of 0.8363 EURJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure found support at 105.44; breach of this would expose 100.00 psychological support level. Near-term resistance is defined at 108.87 ahead of 111.11.

*NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.