én is pont ezt várom h amilyen magasságban van most a cucc ilyen magasságban robbanjon és zutty szabadesésbe a földbe csapódjon:D

Nem vagyok teljesen képben, de emlékeim szerint mindegyik a levegőben robbant fel és leesett.

Olyat nem tudok, ami lent robbant volna fel és kilőtt.... :DDD

jó reggelt:)

én is osztom:)

csak robbanna már:)

Legyen a Hindenburg, mivel New York közelében robbant fel.:)

zeppelin :)

vagy Hindenburg? Nekem mindegy, ugyanúgy végezte mindkettő :P

jó a kérdést, választ várnám vmi illetékestől... kirakatot szépen rendezik csak vevő nem lesz a portékákra...

Kicsit elírtam. Vagyis ez már nem lufi, hanem léghajó.:)

Ellenpólus.

The FOMC minutes kept expectations alive that another round of quantitative easing might begin as early as November. Several members considered it appropriate "to take action soon", but the minutes also made it clear that any additional easing would "depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook." Market attention also focused on the presence of New York Fed economist Eggertsson at the meeting. Eggertsson's field of expertise is the conduct of monetary policy when interest rates are near zero. His attendance at this time is noteworthy given he last appeared at an FOMC meeting in December 2008, the meeting where the original MBS purchase program was launched. The dollar weakened sharply against its G10 peers in response, although the euro was the main beneficiary.

És:

In the early part of the US session, the one-two punch of a hawkish Hoenig and forceful rhetoric from the ECB’s Weber (the heir apparent to the ECB, though Trichet’s term does not end until late next year) saw a significant consolidation of the long bond rally shortly after the market was on the cusp of posting new lows in yields in the late European session. Hoenig basically indicated we can count on him to strongly dissent from any move toward QE in his final couple of months of voting status in the FOMC. He said that depression-like deflation in unlikely, that the costs of any new asset purchases are likely to be higher than the benefits and warned of the “unintended consequences” of keeping policy rates too low. He indicated he would rather see rates normalized gradually away from zero percent.

Mr. Weber was out with rhetoric that stands in such strong contrast to what the Fed doves are saying that one can well understand how EURUSD got from 1.20 to almost 1.40 recently. He said that the ECB should phase out bond purchases now and said that the risks of exiting from its easy monetary policy stance too late are greater than risks from exiting too early. One must keep in mind that Weber is traditionally at the hawkish end of the spectrum and that Mr. Trichet is still in control of ECB policy.

Nonetheless, the FOMC minutes of the last meeting were at first blush relatively in line with the market’s expectations that the Fed is moving towards QE2 in November. The minutes suggested that the path of monetary policy is dependent on the economy and that some portion of the FOMC members felt that further accommodation may be “appropriate before long.” The reaction was obviously USD negative, but bonds failed to respond to the QE2 theme, suggesting a disconnect with the currency market (if QE2 odds are the only thing driving the USD lower, that is…)/

Sokan tudják, hogy ez lufi, és azt is miért fújják, csak nem konkrét döntéshozók sajnos. Pl.:

Governing Council Member Weber repeated his opposition to the ECB's sovereign bond buying program, saying there is no evidence the purchases have had any significant impact on average Eurozone yields. He said the program "should now be phased out permanently". Although he stressed the current policy stance is appropriate given that inflation risks are low, he warned that the risks from exiting too late are greater than exiting too early. On the question of how the exit strategy should be sequenced, Weber said that, "in principle", rate hikes could begin before the phasing out of non-standard measures had finished. He repeated the now familiar ECB position that it is not the job of the central bank to provide long-term liquidity support to the banking system, and invited national governments and bank shareholders instead to provide the cash the banks need. ECB Governing Council member Noyer said that price stability is still not in danger, and that upside risks are very limited. Elsewhere, ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that there is no danger of inflation or deflation, and that the idea of a currency war is absurd. However, ECB President Trichet was more cautious and called on the international community to say "no to protectionism and no to beggar-thy-neighbour policies".

eurgbp nagyobb sztár most mint eurusd úgy látom. Nem bántásként akartam mondani, csak ma kb. 6 cég elemzését olvastam illetve hallgattam az elemzőket.. mindegyik egy nótát fúj, bár a jóslatok elég delpho-iak, ha esik akkor persze hát túlvett volt, ráfért már. igaz azt egyik se mondta előre hogy az a lehetséges korrekció 100 vagy 700 pont, mert ugye nem mindegy. ha meg tovább hasít akkor áhh persze a nyomda..

Usd-indexre 3% bullos, AAII bullos, Vix rekord, usd elleni fogadás világcsúcs, 100-ból 93 elemző biztos a pumpában, árupiac kiakasztva, 100-120usd-s olaj 5000-res arany, 30e Dow 15 év múlva, alapok cash rátája az áprilisi all time low alatt, osztalékráták all time low, soha ennyi cég nem jött még tőzsdére, munkanélküliség szinte mindenütt rekord, minden hétre jut 2bankcsőd, 7 eu-s ország szégyenlistán ecetera-ecetera. Ha marad ez a sebesség az usd-ben akkor nem kell nagy matekosnak lenni: november közepére 1,53 és aztán mi lesz kérdezem, mi marad a további fantasztikus évekre?

ezt a példát mondhatjuk usd/jpy párra is és szépen esik is mint a kő csak ott már mindenki longolna:D

Tapasztalataim szerint szeret onnan fordulni ahol a többség már nagy célárakat mond. jöttünk 1400pontot egyhuzamban, senki meg se nyikkant max lecsípett pár pippet az árral és 1,40-nél már már mindenki tuti biztos az 1,42-1,45-ben. Ha viszont eljönne oda, akkor mindenki 1,49-1,50-ről szeretné shortolni és így tovább.. lehet igazad lesz ettől függetlenül.

jó lenne ha nem engedné tovább...:)

de ha tovább engedi akkor a héten akár az 1.43 is meglehet...

Sávszélesítést kellene kérniük. :-) szvsz 1,3920 nem engedi tovább.

a lényeg h mehet a pénzpumpa és nyomhatják a dollárt ezerrel és jön az 1,60-as eur/usd :D

megvolt a korrekció mehet minden tovább fel:)

Bírom ezt a vibrálást az eurusd-ben hírek alatt. A traderek minden fedes mondat után ütnek egy pozit? nem tudják kivárni a végét? és mi van ha a következő mondat már az előzővel ellentétes. zárnak is rögtön? vicces. :-)

Morning Adviser Americas 10/12/2010 12:20:00 PM

FOMC Minutes Due

By Manuel Oliveri

Risk sentiment suffered in Europe Tuesday, mainly on the back of weaker Asian markets. An initial trigger was China's decision to hike its deposit reserve ratio for several banks.

Elsewhere, EURUSD traded 1.3775-1.3851 and USDJPY traded 81.80-82.13. Most European stock market indices are trading in the red, with the Eurostoxx50 down by 1.1%.

The main focus today will be on the 1800 GMT release of the FOMC minutes.

Research Spotlight

"The Futility Of War" Macro Keys The media are voicing concern that the world is about to embark upon a global "currency war", as countries try to devalue their way to export-led recovery. Before such apocalyptic fears take hold, it is worth reflecting that major currency pairs have not moved much since the start of 2007. While a 30%-plus FX move in a single year would change prices and demand patterns, the dislocation and political response it would generate would be the economic equivalent of a nuclear winter. Please see the "The Futility of War" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.40, 3m 1.25 At -0.1% m/m (cons. -0.1%, prev. -0.1%) and 1.3% y/y (cons. 1.3%, prev. 1.3%) the final reading on CPI for September was released in line with previous estimations. German wholesale prices rose in September by 1.0% m/m (prev. 1.6%). ECB Governing Council member Noyer said that price stability is still not in question, and that upside risks are very limited. He also said that massive direct interventions in debt markets must remain exceptional. On a different note he highlighted that developments in the market are still closely observed. Elsewhere, ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that there is no danger of inflation or deflation, and that the idea of a currency war is absurd. The EUR remains driven by external factors such as Fed easing expectations. We believe that Fed easing is largely priced in while growth prospects for the Eurozone as a whole have become more muted due to export competitiveness. With respect to QE we believe that investors may be disappointed by the Fed's final decision in terms of amount and ambition.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 80, 3m 85 Finance Minister Noda repeated that he is watching FX markets with great interest, and said Japan is willing to take decisive steps, including FX intervention, if needed. Economics Minister Kaieda repeated comments that Noda made over the weekend, saying that Japan's explanation for its FX policy met with a certain understanding at the weekend IMF meetings. USDJPY will likely remain driven by external developments, and hence US yields will be key in directing the pair. As Fed easing is largely priced in, and as the Fed's decision in terms of amount and ambition may disappoint investors we expect downside in the pair to be limited. Hence we keep our medium-term forecast at 0.85.

SEK Targets: EURSEK 1m 9.35, 3m 9.30 At 1.8% y/y (cons. 1.7%, prev. 1.4%) and 0.8% m/m (cons. 0.7%, prev. 0.0%) CPIF was released above expectations. At 1.4% (cons. 1.3%, prev. 0.9%) and 0.8% m/m (cons. 0.6%, prev. 0.0) CPI without assuming constant interest rate costs also rose. Although most recent data will likely keep the Riksbank cautious with respect to inflation, we are of the view that prices are peaking around current levels.

GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.59, 3m 1.47 At 3.1% y/y (cons. 3.1%, prev. 3.1%) and 0.0% (cons. 0.1%, prev. 0.5%) CPI was slightly lower in September. RPI inflation was released at 4.6% y/y (cons. 4.4%, prev. 4.7%) and 0.4% m/m (cons. 0.1%. prev. 0.4%). The trade balance narrowed from GBP8.7bn in July to GBP8.3bn in August. Our economists note that today's CPI release is in line with the BOE's inflation report and should therefore have no material impact on the MPC. BOE's Miles said that growth and inflation prospects remain exceptionally uncertain and that quantitative easing remains a potentially powerful tool. He added that it is not obvious yes what the next direction of monetary policy is, but that the BOE may yet come to the use of quantitative easing. We are cautious on sterling as fiscal austerity will dampen growth and keep monetary policy accommodative.

AUD, NZD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 1.00, 3m 0.93; NZDUSD 1m 0.76, 3m 0.73 Business confidence in September in September fell to 10 from 11 in August. Business conditions have weakened slightly for business which are dependent on domestic demand. Elsewhere concerns with respect to the high valuation of the AUD to weigh on export competitiveness are rising. Prime Minister Gillard, for instance, highlighted that the strong currency pressures Australia's exporters.

FX Technicals

EURJPY support at 110.66 EURUSD BULLISH Snapback from 1.4029 eyes 1.3689 support. Next resistance lies at 1.4194 USDJPY BEARISH Trend is bearish; initial support at 81.39 ahead of 79.75. Resistance remains at 83.03 ahead of 83.99 GBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.6018/69 would trigger further gains towards 1.6276. Support at 1.5670 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Look for a break below 0.9500 which will expose 0.9078 next. Resistance at 0.9739 ahead of 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 0.9918 below 1.000 psychological resistance next. Support at 0.9709 reaction low. USDCAD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.0380 holds, expect losses to target 1.0063 with scope for 0.9931 and 0.9820 next. EURCHF BULLISH Trend is bullish; break of 1.3494 would expose 1.3697 measured objective. Support at 1.3265. EURGBP BULLISH Upside gains capped at 0.8808 ahead of 0.8894. Support holds at 0.8689 ahead of 0.8563 EURJPY BULLISH Clearance of 113.26 exposes 110.66 support, but overall outlook is bullish with resistance at 115.68 ahead of 116.68 Fibonacci resistance.

emlékeim szerint 2000 mrd jpy-vel avatkoztak be. Most 5000 mrd jpy-t szavaztak meg erre a célra.

Akkor 3 % feletti mozgás volt jpy párokban. Az 5000 mrd esetén nem szeretnék fordítva ülni a lovon....

Én 90 óta hanyagolom. Alatta már nem látok jó kockázat-hozam arány semerre. Régen volt rá egy 75ös céláram amiért kiröhögtek a barátaim is 90-nél már kezdtek hinni. Gondoltam ideje kiszállni. Sokan erőltetik most, azért jobb is a partvonal, öljék egymást akinek van égetni való pénze. Gbpjpy barátságosabb mozgású és logikusabb, ha létezik ez a szó. De a jenek esése számomra már olyan mint a tőzsdecsúcson a mindenki veszi feeling. A forduló biztos hogy egyértelmű lesz, csak addig a fél csapat lebukja a pénzét, és nem lesz lőszer az igazihoz. szvsz.