Nekem a diverzifikálást nagyon meg kellett tanulnom. A kockázatvállalási hajlandóságom magas, ezért szeretek gyorsan mozgó papírba nagyobb összeget tenni, lassúba pedig kisebbet. 200 ezer alatt nem veszek semmit, mert 7 dollár a brokidíj, az meg már ott is több mint 1%.
Igen, mármint úgy első…
Szerintem ezzel bepróbálkozom.
Még dolgozom a rigorózus kereskedési szabályomon, és magamon, hogy betartsam és hallgassak a megérzéseimre.
kb. Azonos összeggel vesztek egy-egy pakkot? pl TSLA-t ~100 ezerért; RLI-t ~100 ezerért??
Másképp befektetni vágyott összeget, arányokat, hogy határoztok meg papíronként?
eddig jóformán egy papíros voltam, vagy egy-két egy időben.
technikailag visszatért az emelkedő trendbe, jól fest. miért pont ezt választottad?
Már Zacks alapján? Ott strong buy, zacks rank #1.
REASONS TO BUY
RLI Corp. is one of the industry s most profitable P&C writers, generating underwriting profits in 34 of
the last 38 years, especially for the last 18 consecutive years. A strong local branch office network, broad range of product offerings, and focus on specialty insurance lines also serve as contributors to
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the company s superior profitability. In addition, RLI Corp. is focused on expanding its business with new products in professional liability and has formed the RLI Corp. Fidelity unit. It has also diversified into crop and other assumed property reinsurance along with the expansion of its underwriting team. Moreover, to remain focused on new market and product expansion opportunities, RLI Corp. acquired Contractors Bonding Insurance Company (CBIC). RLI Corp
acquired Rockbridge Underwriting Agency, complementing its strategy of capitalizing on resources
in niche markets in order to induce growth. RLI Corp. expects Rockbridge to infuse $20 million in premiums annually in its business. Further, it unveiled a new product line, where RLI will provide primary and excess liability insurance coverage for security guard and patrol services, private
investigation firms and alarm system installation, maintenance and monitoring firms. It also entered
into a partnership with Recreation Insurance Specialists (RIS) to underwrite recreation vehicle (RV)
insurance for RIS. The company expects to capitalize on the promising opportunities in the RV
insurance market. RLI focuses on introducing products in the market. It has also been engaged in re-underwriting several of its products. The company introduced a recreational vehicle product in the previous year which derived nearly $8 million of gross written premiums. With the expansion of its business and stability in the rate environment, we expect RLI to continue to deliver solid growth in gross premium written, which increased 10.3% in 2011, 11.8% in 2012 and 7% in 2013 due to solid contribution from the Casualty segment.
On the back of consistent growth in net premiums earned, RLI Corp s top line has been following an upward trend in the last few years. The company s top line continues to exhibit increasing trend growing 6.1% year over year in 2011, 6.7% in 2012 and by 6.8% in 2013. With the company s effort
towards new product initiatives and increased exposure in mature product offerings, we expect RLI Corp. to continue exhibiting top-line growth going forward.
RLI Corp. has increased dividends over the past 38 years. In May 2013, the board of RLI approved a
6.25% hike in its quarterly dividend. It has been increasing dividends for the past six years at a CAGR of 7.5%. The company has regularly paid dividends for 151 consecutive quarters now. Its dividend currently yields 1.43%. RLI Corp. has also been paying special dividends to its shareholders for the last few years. It paid a special dividend of $3.00 per share in Nov 2013. Over
the last 5 years, the company has returned more than $600 million to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends both regular and special. Additionally, in order to make stocks more
affordable for the investors, RLI Corp. has announced a two-for-one stock split. Though the company has not been buying back shares over a year, it still has $87.5 million under its $100 million share repurchase program authorized in May 2010.
The company has a sound capital structure that helps it meet the interests of its policyholders, enhance operations in the insurance sector and aid growth in its book value in the long term. For the
trailing 12-months, it has a decent asset turnover of 0.26 compared to the sector average of 0.02. This is followed by a return on equity (ROE) of 15.54%, better than the industry average of 9.6%. RLI Corp. maintains a conservative underwriting and reserving policy and continues to achieve
favorable reserve releases from the prior years. Its statutory surplus levels are also strong and exhibit an increasing trend. The company has a low financial leverage (18% on Dec 31, 2013) providing significant financial flexibility to the operating subsidiaries. RISKS
RLI Corp. has exposure to catastrophe losses stemming from earthquakes that primarily hit the West
Coast and from damages to commercial properties throughout the Gulf and East Coast, as well as to
homes, which were damaged by hurricanes in the Gulf and East Coast and Hawaii. Underwriting
income increased 14.1% to $110.2 million in 2011 but declined 42.3% to $63.6 million in 2012, representing a fluctuating trend. As a result, combined ratio also showed instability. It improved 80
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basis points (bps) to 79.6% in 2011 but deteriorated 940 bps to 89% in 2012. Underwriting income during 2013 surged 67.9% year over year with combined ratio improving 590 bps year over year to 83.1%. But this might not be sustainable owing to the uncertainty involved in the occurrence of catastrophic events. Thus, exposure to cat loss will always remain a concern as natural disasters are
unpredictable and they affect results adversely.
The low interest rate environment continues to weigh on net investment income and year 2013 was no exception. The year marked a 10.3% decline in net investment income to $58.8 million, following
the trend over the past few years. Net investment income declined year over year by 7.7% in 2012, 4.7% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2010. We expect investment income to remain depressed if the current
low interest rate environment persists.
RLI Corp. s cash balance stood at $74.8 million at the end of 2012, falling almost 29% year over year from $105 million at the end of 2011. At the end of 2013, RLI Corp. s cash and cash equivalents declined 16.1% from 2012-end level. Cash provided by operating activities was $37.4 million in 2012, $118 million in 2011, $100.2 million in 2010 and $127.8 million in 2009. During 2013, net cash
provided by operating activities stood at approximately $135 million, significantly higher than the amount reported in 2012. The fluctuating cash position of the company keeps us cautious about the company s ability to meet debt and liquidity needs as well as working capital requirements. RECENT NEWS RLI Corp. Posts Strong Q4 Earnings Jan 22, 2014 With its fourth-quarter 2013 operating earnings of $0.72 per share exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 28.6%, RLI Corp. delivered three straight quarters of positive surprises. The result also outpaced the year-ago quarter s earnings by 64%. The improvement came on the back of better underwriting results. Fourth-quarter operating earnings include favorable developments in Casualty s prior years reserves of
$0.19 per share, $0.02 per share each for Property s and Surety s prior years' reserves, gain from tax benefit of special dividend to ESOP of $0.04 per share and gain from change in tax rate applicable to Maui Jim of $0.08 per share.
Including realized investment gains, net of tax of $0.05 per share, RLI Corp. reported net income of $0.77
per share compared with $0.58 per share in the fourth quarter of 2012. The prior-year quarter net income
included realized investment gains, net of tax, of $0.14 per share. Full-Year Highlights For full year 2013, RLI posted record earnings of $2.57 per share which climbed 27.9% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.6%. The top line came in at $705.6 million, improving 6.8% year over year. Operational Performance Revenues in the quarter under review totaled $185.4 million, improving 8.2% year over year driven by 14% increase in net premiums earned. Revenues outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4%.
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Investment income declined 7.3% year over year to $13.4 million. Total expense of RLI Corp. during the fourth quarter scaled up 1.5% year over year to $144.8 million.
Increase in interest expense, other insurance expenses, general corporate expenses and policy acquisition costs, and other insurance expenses primarily drove the increase. Underwriting income for RLI Corp. was $29.6 million in the quarter, up more than threefold year over year. For 2013, underwriting income improved 68% over 2012. The combined ratio in the reported quarter improved 1190 basis points (bps) to 82.4%, while full year combined ratio improved 590 bps to 83.1%. Improvement stemmed from a benign catastrophe season,
improved current year results in our casualty segment, as well as increased favorable development in prior years loss reserves. Full-year underwriting results marked the 18th consecutive year of underwriting profit and the 9th straight year of combined ratio attained below 90%. RLI Corp. s total return from the investment portfolio was 1.9% during the reported quarter. The bond portfolio returned 0.3%, while the equity portfolio yielded a return of 8.2%. Financial Update RLI Corp. exited 2013 with total investments and cash of $1.9 billion, up 4.4% from 2012-end. Long-term debt was $149.6 million at the end of 2013. RLI Corp. s book value stood at $19.29 per share as of Dec 31, 2013, up 3% year over year. The company has recorded a return on equity of 15.3% along with a 14.4% return on a comprehensive basis compared with a return on equity of 12.4%, with 15.5% on a comprehensive basis in the prior year. Statutory surplus increased 25.6% over 2012-end to $859.2 million as on Dec 31, 2013. Cash provided by operations was $135 million, up 261.2% year over year. Dividend Update On Dec 20, 2013, RLI paid a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share and a quarterly dividend of $0.17
per share, amounting to $71.8 million. The payout marks 150 consecutive quarters of dividend payment. The company has consistently hiked regular dividends for the last 38 straight years with an average of 11.9% increase over the last 10 years.
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VALUATION The shares of RLI Corp. currently trade at 18.2x our earnings estimate for 2014, a 33.8% premium to the
industry average of 13.6x. On a price-to-book basis, the shares trade at 2.2x, 83.3% premium to the
industry average of 1.2x. The valuation on a price-to-book basis looks attractive given the trailing 12- month ROE of 13.4% is 116.1% higher than the industry average. Our six-month target price of $51.00 equates to 22.0x our earnings estimate for 2013. Combined with the
annual dividend of $0.68 per share, this target price implies a return of about 21.3% over that period. This
is consistent with our long-term Outperform recommendation on the shares. Additionally, the quantitative Zacks Rank for RLI Corp. is currently 1, indicating an upward pressure on
the shares over the near term. Short interest is currently 6.8 days.
Kösz. Jelenleg vételnél nem zavar az árfolyamkockázat. :-)
×
RLI lett az első kiszemelt…
Igen, kb 3%-kal drágább (10 Ft), mint a pénzváltónál. Lesz ez több is. Pontosítok! Venni nagyjából MNB középen lehet a KBC-nél, forintra visszaváltani viszont jelentősen rosszabbul. Vagyis ha végül forintban ki akarod venni, akkor spekulálnod kell a forint árfolyamra (is), vagy pedig benyeled akkor amikor épp kell.
Az zavar, hogy jelenleg drágán tudok $, €, Ł -t venni.
Erre ($, €, Ł beker. ára) akár minimálisan, de figyeltek?
Nyugodtan írd meg nekik, ha megcsinálják én is megyek hozzájuk.
Az amcsi piacot gyakorlatilag novemberben kezdtem el kigondolt elvek mentén kereskedni. Elsőre csináltam a tőkém 66%-án 17% nettó hozamot 2-3 hónap alatt. Most 3 hét alatt van Teslán 27%, Raytheonon 7%. Szintén 2/3 - 1/3 felállást nyomom. Nem tudom, nem is akarom évesíteni. Technikára esküszöm rövid távra, 5-10-15% nyereségekre megyek 1-10 hét alatt. Jelenleg a bika piacon könnyű pénzt keresni, érdekes majd akkor lesz, ha korrigál. Szerintem még 2 évig nem fog.
Részben marketing bullshit, részben pedig valóban kimagaslóan ügyesek és baromi jól kezelik a portfoliót. Fizess elő az ultimate csomagra 1 dollárért és meglátod.
Na ezt jó, hogy így összefoglaltad, mert majd írok nekik egy mailt ezekkel a dolgokkal. Valóban a BLUE-kal sokat nem érünk ott sem.
Nekem BÉT-ből kezd elegem lenni a piacot oda teszik ahová akarják és egészségtelen a mozgások egyre gyakrabban vannak. De úgy látom Ti ezért kereskedtek külföldön.
Ha lesz lehetőségem akkor Én is beszállok, csak még a tőkém korlátozott.
Ha nem indiszkrét a kérdés éves szinten átlag mennyi hozamot tudtok összeszedni az USA piacokon?
Nem tudom mi történt, kattintottam hármat és megint van egy hónap ingyen hozzáférésem. :D
Szerintem ezek is olyan kutyaütők, mint a LinkedIn. Egyszer fizess valamennyit, aztán addig adnak ingyen hozzáférést, amíg el nem szégyelled magad. LinkedIn-en egy FÉLhavi előfizetést fizettem ki, azóta volt 3 hónap ingyen :D
Bocs, és kösz, nem hitetlenkedés, böngésztem, de már látom melyik részért kérnek zsét.
Több dolog:
1. RTN 100 felett zárt, Rbbj első napja teljesült.
2. Már lejárt az 1 dolláros előfizetésem, az egyik elemzés linkét Rbbj-nek küldtem el. Ő tudja megerősíteni, hogy látta-e. Szerintem igen, de nem válaszolt akkor.
SZERK: ez volt a link, de már én se férek hozzá:
http://www.zacks.com/ZER/pdf/FRX/Z1089426.PDF
3. A Random tudomásom szerint valóban ex KBC fejlesztőkből állt össze, ezért is néz ki kábé ugyanúgy az ottani PETI amit nem tudom minek neveznek. R-ANDI? :) Nagyon ideje volna usa piacot adniuk, a BÉT-es rablásból szerintem minden jó érzésű spekulánsnak elege van.
Pedig meggyőződésem, hogy a random direkt vagy nem, de a kbc farvizéről vált le.
×
Kösz a Zacks linket.
Hohó! Engem felhívtak a Randomtól, hogy miért nem mentem be személyesen véglegesíteni az online regisztrációt és elsírtam nekik, hogy nincs USA piac, pedig anélkül felejtős. Mondta a hölgy, hogy már dolgoznak rajta, hónapok kérdése és lesz. De! CSak az 50-100 legnevesebb részvénnyel indulnak. Gondolom Meki, Coke, Alcoa, HP, stb. Jó jó, de ezekkel nem lehet rendesen spekulálni. Mondtam neki, hogy a KBC jó fej, mert kérésre felvesznek bármilyen ISIN kódot. Volt nagy hümmögés, szerintem az ISIN volt az újdonság a mondatban. Remélem továbbadta a hozzáértőknek és lesz egy online felület, ahol az ügyfelek beadhatják a kérésüket és másnap már kereskedhetnek az áhított papírral. Egyébként esélyük se lesz legyőzni a KBC-t, ahonnan ők is jöttek. Szóval hajrá Random, legyetek okosak, legyen ISIN felvétel 24 órán belül és tömegével fogunk átmenni hozzátok. Remélem olvassák a fórumot :) Az ötletért kedvezményt kérek! :)))
Ezt jó tudni, ha Randomnál lesz USA piac akkor Én is aktív részese leszek a fórumnak.
Köszi az infót.
Elárulom a nagy titkot, hogy hol érdemes venni való részvényeket keresni: Zacks.com
Hovatovább előfizettem 1 dollárért a teljes próbaverzióra, ami amúgy alapból 5000$ körül volna és beleláttam mindenbe. A Teslánál csak megerősítette a technikai spekulációmat, a Raytheonról viszont olyan elemzést írtak, hogy azonnal beszálltam piacin. Na tehát, 1 dollárt aki sajnál rá, az komplett idióta. A 27. napon írsz nekik egy mailt, hogy kösz nem kell, és hó végén automatikusan megszűnik az előfizetés. A legjobb az egészben, hogy a Zacks Rank akkor is ingyen látható marad, ha nem vagytok előfizetve. Ehhez egy trükk kell. Ami papír érdekel, add hozzá a saját portfoliódhoz :) No akkor irány eljkölteni 226 Ft-ot és keresni 30%-ot jövő hónapban!
Investorplace vélemény. Röviden: venni kell, mert nagyon fogy a rakéta. Szaudiak, koreaiak veszik mint a cukrot.
Defense Stocks to Buy: Raytheon (RTN)
rtn 3 Defense Stocks Set to Soar Into 2014Raytheon (RTN) is one of those companies that does a lot of business with the Saudis. In fact they recently sold them 15,000 anti-tank missiles to Saudi Arabia for roughly $1 billion. The company is the sixth largest military contractor, specializes in making high-tech missiles, advanced radar systems and sensors, defense electronics, and missile-defense systems.
If we slash the size of our forces then missile defense and attack systems become even more critical and we could actually see the cuts leading to increased business for RTN. They are looking to grow their international business and in addition to the recent Saudi order, RTN sold $655 million Patriot missiles to Kuwait and won a $123 million contract from the Republic of Korea Navy to supply the latter with nine Phalanx Weapon Systems.
The headlines might say otherwise, but the real story is that business is solid for Raytheon, and RTN stock is a strong buy right now.
