usdx kitört szerintem...eurusd shortjaim szépek (1.4 felettiek)
usdx kitört szerintem...eurusd shortjaim szépek (1.4 felettiek)
Érdekes Kína a héten hajnalban már nem nyomta fel a euro-t. Végeztek?
Morning Adviser Europe 10/19/2010 5:59:00 AM
Dollar Finds Support
By Gareth Berry
The dollar was volatile during the Asia session, but supportive comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner ultimately helped it recover some ground. Geithner said no country can devalue its way to prosperity and that the US will not engage in such practice. He added that he does not see a time in our lifetime when the dollar will cease to be the world's key reserve currency. EURUSD traded 1.3918-1.4004, USDJPY 81.21-81.47. Equities closed positive as a major US financial institution reported good earnings despite missing on revenues. Treasury yields moved lower and gold and oil all gained as Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, who is not a FOMC voter until 2012, said he may support more quantitative easing. But Dallas Fed President Fisher again said the Fed cannot help the economy on its own and said QE2 is not a done deal. In data, industrial production for September was as we expected but weaker than consensus at -0.2%. However, other manufacturing data have been more constructive. The housing market index rose more than expected in October and other housing indicators have also been positive this month. Several Fed officials are due to speak though we have heard from most of them and do not expect any significant deviations from previous stances. But we could finally hear Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke's public opinions on easing prospects. We also get housing starts and building permits data and two major US banks report earnings.
Research Spotlight "AUD Strength Constructive" UBS Economics The Australian dollar briefly touched parity with the US dollar for the first time in 28 years on Friday. With 72% of Australia's exports priced in USD as of Q2, the competitive export disadvantage from a higher AUD is much less significant than might be thought. To the extent that it is reflecting higher commodity prices, the higher AUD signals a net positive environment for Australia, though it's also likely to bring changes in the structure of the economy. Please see the "AUD Strength Constructive" Macro Keys note on www.ubs.com/fx.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.40, 3m 1.25 Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said finance ministers discussed FX rates and that FX volatility has negative effects on a global scale. He reiterated that FX rates must reflect economic fundamentals. Juncker also said he is confident that Greece will meet its deficit targets. German ZEW data should show an increase in the current situation index but the economic sentiment portion is expected to drop. While our European economists think that recent price action in EURUSD has not been enough to prompt them to cut GDP estimates, we think recent euro levels could weigh on sentiment indexes like the ZEW.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 1.00, 3m 0.93 The RBA minutes from the Oct. 5 policy meeting struck a hawkish note. Although the AUD initially strengthened, a broad-based dollar revival subsequently took AUDUSD lower again. The text revealed that the decision to pause was "finely balanced" and that a case could have been made to increase the cash rate at that meeting. Instead, the board opted to wait, pending the evaluation of further information "at the next meeting". Clearly the Q3 CPI estimate due on Oct 27 is likely to be a key input to the final decision. Most significantly, it was noted that the stronger AUD, which had risen 4% since the previous meeting, had already caused "a tightening of domestic financial conditions". Our Australian economists still expect a rate hike in November, and we expect AUD to remain supported as investors look for yield. Treasurer Swan is still opposed to FX intervention, both in general and in the case of the AUD in particular. He said that greater AUD flexibility is key to global rebalancing, and that Australia will be a big loser if protectionism takes hold.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.06 We think the BoC will keep the policy rate unchanged due to recent dovish commentary by BoC officials, disappointing domestic data and persistent Fed easing expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg are also looking for no change, which will keep the CAD relatively contained versus the other dollar-bloc currencies.
FX Technicals
USDCHF little support till 0.9225 EURUSD BULLISH Pullback from 1.4159 eyes 1.3775, reaction low. However, broader trend is bullish, next resistance at 1.4373 Fibonacci level. USDJPY BEARISH Stalled at 80.88; next support at 79.75 ahead of 77.91. Resistance at 81.85 ahead of 83.03 GBPUSD BULLISH While support at 1.5606 holds, view pullback as correction. Upside capped at 1.6107 ahead of 1.6201 USDCHF BEARISH There is little support till 0.9225. Resistance at 0.9729 ahead of 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Move above 1.0004 would expose 1.0166. Initial support defined at 0.9709 ahead of 0.9542, reaction low. USDCAD BEARISH Recovery eyes 1.0273; but overall model is bearish. Sustained break of 0.9981/31 region would expose 0.9820 ahead of 0.9712. EURCHF BULLISH Upside potential holds below 1.3494; break of the level would expose 1.3665. Initial support lies at 1.3265 ahead of 1.3072 EURGBP BULLISH Recent pullback pressured 0.8689 support but focus is back on the upside with initial resistance defined at 0.8840 ahead of 0.8894 and 0.9039. EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 111.77 holds, expect recovery towards 115.68 ahead of 116.68 Fibonacci resistance *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in
While the dollar weakened on continued easing concerns, late comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner helped it regain some ground. Geithner said no country can devalue its way to prosperity and that the US will not engage in such practice. He added that he does not see a time in our lifetime when the dollar is not the world's key reserve currency and also said China's currency is significantly undervalued, more than any other major EM currency. EURUSD traded 1.3832-1.3998, USDJPY 81.13-81.49. Equities closed positive as a major US financial institution reported good earnings despite missing on revenues. Loan loss reserves were reported lower as well amid increasing concerns of mortgage-related problems in the press. Treasury yields moved lower and gold and oil all gained as Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, who is not a FOMC voter until 2012, said he may support more quantitative easing, which helped keep Fed easing expectations intact.
ezek alltalaban kedden vannak, de lehet most szerda es neked van igazad
nehogy amnéziás legyen:...mi?? ösztönzés??..áhhh:)))
november 03, d e addig is dudley és trsai szóval tartják a piacot, szinte naponta beszédeket mondanak :)
pontosan mikor lesz?
pláne banki perek előtt bűzlik ez,ellentmond
a fed nyiltpiaci bizotsaganak osszejovetele
ahhoz a penzpumpahoz azert tobbseg is kell, nem csak a berni gondol 1-et aztan nyomom a manyt vakulasig...........gondolom en, de csak en!
Benne is lessz.Két hetük van még rallyzni adig megcsinálják sp-é ben az új csúcsot nasdaqban,dax 7000,hati 24800,Habiszti akkor el van hitetve hogy onnan long. Viszont utána fed bízva a feltörekvőkben látva a cégek sikerességét,bízva ajövőben (mellesleg sok pénzt bepumpáltak),és látva ha a következtő csomagot azonnaal bepumpálják az már veszélyes élessz,aszt foglya mondanoi szerintem hogy az élénkítés lehetősége fenntartva,de egyenlőre indokolatlan.Onnnan jöhetne egy februárig tartó,oldalazó korrekció.És akkor meginnt ott lesz a kélrdés kell a csomag vagy sem,persze kelleni fog mert a makrók romlani fognak afddig folyamatosan mindenhol.Bank of america hadilábon áll azzal ha nem lkezdenek valamit csúnyán kifinghat.
hát, elvileg volt élinkítő hatás, mert bár kevés vállalat, de aki hozzájut, most nagyon kedvező hitelhez jut a korábbi évekhez képest, és a kötvénypiacról is jól tudja magát finanszírozni.
Valóban a fogyasztóknak közvetlenül adva is lehet, elérhetővé vált volna ez a hatás, de én a miért-et nem kutatom, a lényeg, hogy nem azt lépték meg, és egyelőre semmi szándék sincs ilyen irányba
leírtam, hogy milyen eszközökre látok magyarázatot bullra, eurusd azért nincs benne, mert ilyen szintről euro gyengülésre legalább annyi ok van, mint usd gyengülésre.
Fordulatot pedig csak charttechnika alapján várok
így az euró 1,48000,extrém eset az 1.5.1 es csúcs,ott kell shorotlni.
Akkor miért shortolod az eurót? És vársz benne fordulatot?
A választások után más lesz a gyerek fekvése úgy tűnik. Vagyis republikánus többség várható, mind a Szenátusban, mind a képviselőházban. Berni sem fog tudni úgy ugrálni, ahogy akar.
