a dollár index havi charton elég szabályos háromszögfélében mozog, most az aljához közelít.
Mint ha Vakmajom is elkezdene brummogni a rv piacokra, közelít a fordulat talán?
a dollár index havi charton elég szabályos háromszögfélében mozog, most az aljához közelít.
Mint ha Vakmajom is elkezdene brummogni a rv piacokra, közelít a fordulat talán?
igen a japan osszefugges nekem is megvan, miszerint gyengitik a dollart japanak karara, raadasul az intervencioval a japanok dollart vesznek amivel a kinaiak usa bondjaikat tartjak karban mintegy ingyen.
az eut meg az eros euroval vagjak haza mivel az eros euroval olcsobb az eus polgarnak a kinaai cucc, ezert no az import eú nehezebb az export, eu-s kereskedelmi merlegnek meg reszeltek...
Morning Adviser Europe 10/14/2010 6:11:00 AM
MAS Move Dents Dollar
By Gareth Berry
The dollar weakened across the board during the Asia session, with the latest bout of weakness brought on by a further round of tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The euro and the yen made strong gains, and the Australian dollar approached parity before retreating. EURUSD traded 1.3949-1.4094, USDJPY traded 81.17-81.90, and AUDUSD traded 0.9892-0.9982. Asia stocks rallied through the session, with the Nikkei 2.1% higher at the time of writing, despite the stronger yen.
Richmond Fed President Lacker said inflation is now on target as far as he was concerned. He added that he would probably not support more easing if economic conditions remain as they are. Lacker does not currently have an FOMC vote, and is not due to receive one until 2012.There were no top-tier 1 US economic data releases. However, import prices fell -0.3% (cons: -0.2%) in September after a +0.6% gain in August. Jobless claims due later will likely be the key focus today, ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech on Friday entitled "Monetary Policy Objectives in a Low Inflation Environment".
EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.40, 3m 1.25 ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny said that the ECB's sovereign bond buying program has been effective in the past when it was needed, and should not be disbanded too soon, as it "makes sense" to use it as a "safety belt". His remarks come after fellow Governing Council Member Weber yesterday called for the program to be discontinued. Nowotny also warned that unilateral steps on FX matters could be detrimental to the world economy. At 7.9% (cons. 7.5%, prev. 7.1%) and 1.0%, cons. 0.8%, prev. 0.0%) industrial production for August was released above expectations.
JPY
Targets: USDJPY 80, 3m 95 Finance Minister Noda repeated that Japan is closely watching FX moves. Economics Minister Kaieda said that the stronger yen is driving down sentiment significantly.
GBP
Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.59, 3m 1.47 At 5.3k (cons. 5.0k, prev. 2.3k) claimant count in September rose broadly in line with market expectations. Average weekly earnings were released at 1.7% (cons. 1.6%, prev. 1.5%). According to our economist the only notable news is that labour earnings are gradually picking up. Latest data will unlikely have any major impact on the MPC. BoE MPC member Sentance maintained his hawkish stance, saying that gradual rate increases constituted the right policy and would not endanger a pick-up in the economy.
CHF, SEK
Targets: EURCHF 1m 1.30, 3m 1.28 Riksbank Deputy Governor Wickman-Parak said she is neither a dove nor a hawk on the monetary policy front. Nevertheless she observed that data since the last policy meeting point towards a rapid recovery in Sweden, and that the repo rate may need to be raised even faster than originally expected. In Switzerland, September producer and import prices fell 0.1% m/m (cons. 0.1%m/m) and rose 0.3% y/y (cons. 0.4%, prev. 0.5%). According to our economists lower import prices have been key in driving the headline reading lower. In Sweden, and according to the Swedish Public Employment Service, the unemployment rate rose in September to 8.3% from 8.1% in August. Hungary Central Bank Governor Simor said that not even a 30% rise in the CHF would cause a problem for the financial system. He also added that only those borrowers should be helped who cannot pay back their loans at all.
NZD
Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.76, 3m 0.73 House prices fell in the three-months to September by -0.3% (prev. +0.3%). Retail sales excluding autos came in much weaker than expected and fell by -0.6% m/m (cons. +0.2%, prev. -0.1%). Our NZ economist notes that the data reinforces the idea that Q3 growth may disappoint. It also strongly suggests the RBNZ will keep the policy rate unchanged for the rest of the year, and that the odds of the rate remaining unchanged beyond March are also rising.
FX Technicals
EURUSD clears 1.4045 EURUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.4045 exposes 1.4194 and 1.4371 Fibonacci resistance. Support at 1.3775 USDJPY BEARISH The pair targets 79.75 with scope for 77.91 next. Resistance holds at 83.03 ahead of 83.99 GBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.6018/69 would trigger further gains towards 1.6276. Support at 1.5670 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Outlook is bearish; break below 0.9500 exposes 0.9225. Resistance at 0.9729 ahead of 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Pressure on 1.000 psychological resistance; a break here would expose 1.0166. Support at 0.9834 ahead of 0.9709 reaction low. USDCAD BEARISH Sharp decline targets 0.9931 ahead of 0.9820. Resistance at 1.0106 EURCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.3494 ahead of 1.3665. Initial support lies at 1.3265 ahead of 1.3072 EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8808 exposes 0.8894 and 0.9039. Support holds at 0.8689 ahead of 0.8563 EURJPY BULLISH Clearance of 113.26 exposed 110.66 support, but overall outlook is bullish with resistance at 115.68 ahead of 116.68 Fibonacci resistance *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.
Én inkább úgy közelíteném meg, hogy az erős euró és jen Kína érdeke, az exportverseny miatt.
az ejszaka miatt valoszinu, de miert jo kinanak a gyenge dollar? azt nem ertem
2500mlrd -os tartalekuk pippenkent tobb szaz millioval er kevesebbet.
rv piacok full long (gyj -ket kint mindig jora csinaljak)
1400 as arany
1,5-1,6 dollar
80 folotti olaj, ugy h a gazdasag csak alapjaraton potyog......
kivancsi leszek meddig megy ez igy??
ez teljesen igaz, itt van most egy nagyon jo baratom, (neha uzletarsam is) es panaszkodik, h szinte minden import cikk draga, ami eubol v japanbol megy nekik, alltalaban minosegi cuccok
jo nekik a gyenge dollar de nem ennyire ez persze csak az o velemenye.........
csak az a legdurvább h ezt mind éjszaka csinálták...
pár emberke megint likvidálva lett...
Nem tudom meddig megy ez így. De...
Az USA-ban az ennyire gyenge dollár már a belső fogyasztást veszélyezteti, ami ugye a GDP közel 70%-a. Az EU-ban, Japánban az exportot, ami a gazdaság motorja.
Szóval hamarosan megálljt fognak "parancsolni", és talán közösen.
Alacsony vérnyomásra eurusd shortot ír fel az orvos mostanság. :)
Nem akarok licitálni a "megmondtam hogy gyengül a dollár"-elemzőkre, de van egy olyan csúnya érzésem, hogy kimegyünk 1,46 fölé.. vhogy az 1,6-os 1,51-es csúcs után szép lenne egy 3. csökkenő csúcs is. ezt a tempót nézve, nov. 3-ra meg is lehet.
:-). Néha azt számolom, ha minden illogikus pozit meglépnék akkor holtartanék.
meg is van a meglepi... kitörés.... pontban 02:00-kor...
Eurusd,eurgbp,eurjpy 6-7 órája szűkül. Ebből adódóan nyilván az eur-index is. Meglepit hozhat a reggel.
nah mondjuk ezenj a héten a devizák mozgásából sok mindent én sem tudtam leszűrni mert olyan csapkodás megy le fel 100-150 pipek mintha mindennapi természetesa mozgás lenne..
most mondhatjuk azt h partvonalon kéne lenni és nem kereskedni...
na itt ütötte ki a stop délelőtt. De most se vagyok okosabb eurjpy vonatkozásában.
http://stooq.com/q/?s=eurjpy&c=1y&t=c&a=lg&b=0
Ránézésre sávtető.
buffet 25 évre vesz fel pozit. Addigra bármi nyerőbe fordulhat.
Egész jó kis gondolatmenetet irtam le, de nincs időm
újból most beírni...