Remélejük jó lesz!!! (én is longban vagyok!!!!)
bár hosszabbra preferálom
hétvégi pozikból még 1,36297-es még meg van!!!!
Remélejük jó lesz!!! (én is longban vagyok!!!!)
bár hosszabbra preferálom
hétvégi pozikból még 1,36297-es még meg van!!!!
A reggeli EURUSD kitörést elbénáztam, így most léptem bele, hátha korábbi csúcs fölé tudna menni. :)
Ha összeér akkor meglehet.
Az eur volt már erősebb is, de az usd nagyon gyenge most...
http://stooq.com/q/?s=eur_i&d=20101005&c=3y&t=c&a=lg&b=0&r=usd_i
ez sajna nagy igazsag! (+ esetleges kenyszerzarasok)
etttol fuggettlenul gondolom jo par emberke ertetlenul pislog az 1,38 lattan
ha atviszi 3820 at akkor kivancsi leszek meddig megy?
vagy nem is megy sehova csak felszurkal es fordul
azert ilyen eu problemaknal kicsit vicces lenne egy 1,5 hoz kozeli arfolyam
mondjuk Fed tol sok minden kitellik
Érdekes még ez az oldal is:
http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
A myfxbookot nem mutatom be, ha valakit érdekel, akkor elmesélem miről szól, de könnyen ki lehet találni
Érdemes kattingatni a különböző deviza párok között.
Mondjuk nem hiszem, hogy a nagy spekik (értsd nagy tőke) oandánál vannak, de jó minta arra vonatkozóan, hogy milyen a piaci várakozás....
A nyitott shortpozik ellentétesen is elsülhetnek sajna. Kiütéskor, vagy záráskor baromi nagy vételi erőt generálnak.
remélem sikerül nekik! :-)
usd jpy automata rendszer vétel, tehát nem utazom benne csak pár pöttyre
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/forex-order-book
graph type net-re kell állítani.
Ők (alul) mire számítanak? Vegyük azt, hogy a nagy számok törvénye alapján reprezentatív....
Kitörés gyanús az EUR és a GBP is, de csütörtök ECB kamatülés, és Trichet-et az ír kérdéssel fogják bombázni, szóval csütörtökig longnak tűnik. A jen sötét ló még.
most értem géphez, ránézni.
nem bántom, fogom is a fejem a reggeli miatt.
jó ez így ahogy van long gbpusd, eurusd.
stopok bent azt leves.
én a longot preferálom, mindkettőben, és ha kitőrnek akkor veszek még 39 felett, 60 felett (emlékeim szerínt), és akkor stopok jönnek átlag 0-ra.
van megint usdjpy-m.
és audusd longom is
Morning Adviser Americas 10/5/2010 11:15:00 AM
ECB Bond Buys Balloon
By Manuel Oliveri
Central banks made for plenty of news overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its Cash Target at 4.50%, against market expectations of a 25bp hike, and the Bank of Japan cuts its policy rate target to a range of 0.0-0.1% and announced a temporary bond buying program. The European Central Bank announced that EUR1.344 bn worth of sovereign bond purchases settled last week under its Securities Market Program - a significant increase on the tally for the week before. This clearly suggests that sovereign bond yields amongst issuers on the Eurozone periphery would have been significantly higher last week were it not for the ECB's intervention.
Most European macro data came in better than expected. The US will report Sept. ISm non-manufacturing. EURUSD traded 1.3637-1.3795 and USDJPY 83.24-83.99 in Europe.
Research Spotlight "How Deflation Helps Debtors" UBS G10 FX Strategy
While conventional wisdom holds that deflation is bad for those in debt, what debtors care about is not the price of goods, but the size of the debt relative to their real disposable income as this determines their ability to manage the debt. If taxes come down or productivity rises, it is perfectly possible to have falling CPI with stable or even rising nominal disposable income - which in turn creates a rising real disposable income level that is of benefit to debtors. Please see the "How Deflation Helps Debtors" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR, CHF Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.35, 3m 1.25 / EURCHF 1m 1.30. 3m 1.28
At 54.1 (cons. 53.6, prev. 55.9) Services PMI for September was revised up, but fell on the month. In general latest data suggests that domestic demand is improving. However, both the "incoming business" and "employment" component fell, suggesting that the outlook remains uncertain. In Switzerland, at 0.3% y/y (cons. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%) and 0.0% m/m (cons. 0.0%, prev. 0.0%) CPI for September was released line with market expectations.
The ECB announced that EUR1.344 bn worth of sovereign bond purchases settled last week under the ECB's Securities Market Program. This represents a very significant increase on the tally for the week before and clearly suggests that sovereign bond yields amongst issuers on the Eurozone periphery would have been significantly higher last week were it not for the ECB's intervention.
ECB President Trichet said, that that China's declaration of its confidence with respect to Eurozone treasuries is appreciated. However, he also said that Chinese authorities do not share Europe's view on the need of a faster Yuan appreciation. Elsewhere, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said, that the yuan remains undervalued and that more FX flexibility is in the interest of China. Altogether the issue of currency imbalances will remain a major topic in the weeks to come.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 85
The BoJ effectively cut the policy rate target by replacing the existing target of 0.1% with a range 0-0.1%. No changes were made to the BoJ's monthly intake of JGBs which will continue to accumulate on the BoJ's balance sheet at a rate of ?1.8 trn per month.
The BoJ has also set up a new "temporary" facility specifically to purchase short-term assets with a maturity of 1-2 years. The aim will be to use this facility to buy ?3.5trn in short-dated JGBs and T-bills and about ?1trn in CP, ABCP and corporate bonds.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.96, 3m 0.93
Against consensus expectations, the RBA held the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, mainly as domestic conditions have cooled somehow recently. According to the central bank credit growth is subdued, and growth prospects in the US and Europe remain uncertainty. Muted credit growth in combination with falling demand conditions make a case for prices to remain capped for now. Going forward, the RBA keeps the possibility open to provide another hike, but this will be dependent on the prospective development of prices.
For now, the most recent development, extreme positioning and unstable risk sentiment are all factors supporting the case for additional AUDUSD downside by trend.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.59, 3m 1.47
At 52.8 (cons. 51.0, prev. 51.3) the Sept. services PMI was released above expectations. As such business activity has improved. However, according to our economists the outlook remains uncertain, especially as the "new orders" component fell to the lowest level in a year. As such the BoE will likely keep a cautious stance on monetary policy.
FX Technicals
EURUSD BULLISH While support at 1.3560 holds, expect gains to target 1.3818/96 with scope for 1.4194 next. USDJPY BEARISH Look for a break below 82.88 for extension of bearish trend towards 79.75. Resistance remains at 84.50 ahead of 85.40. GBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.5999 and 1.6069 would expose 1.6276. Support at 1.5670 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Clearance of 0.9709 exposes 0.9590 and 0.9500 next. Resistance at 0.9918 breakout low. AUDUSD BULLISH Sharp decline eyes 0.9463 support, but overall model is bullish with initial resistance defined at 0.9751 ahead of 0.9850 USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on downside; initial support lies at 1.0108 ahead of 0.9931. Resistance comes in at 1.0380 EURCHF NEUTRAL Following the pullback from 1.3467, model has turned neutral. Support at 1.3165 ahead of 1.2991. EURGBP BULLISH Next resistance above 0.8738 lies at 0.8808. Support holds at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8510 EURJPY NEUTRAL Expect gains to extend towards 116.68 and 119.33 next. Near-term support comes in at 112.98 ahead of 115.53.
Tegnap is mondta valaki a 3 havi euribor emelkedést 5,xx %-ra. Én ma nem láttam nyomát se....
Ráadásul az USA államkötvénypiac pezseg. Óriási túljegyzés mellett, a hozamok folyamatosan csökkennek, e mellett a dollár újabb mélypontokon, a tőzsde, arany szárnyal. Szóval...
látom kezdenek kialakulni a forever pozícióim. :)
Kérdés, hogy ez az esés előtti rángás-e, vagy a tegnapi esés volt az emelkedés előtti rángás.
Két két pozi létezik jelenleg.
- Ma 1 óráig vagy benne
- 1 hónapig...
A kettó között a stoppok szednek ki...
