Se pozi, se $ má megint mit csináltál, hogy így megbokrosodtak:))
Se pozi, se $ má megint mit csináltál, hogy így megbokrosodtak:))
Akkor is adják a dollárt, ha xar az adat, és akkor is, ha emelkedik a részvénypiac. Ezért csak felfelé vezethet az útja.:) Azért itt megpróbálok egy shortot.
itt nem letezik rossz adat....
elhomalyosit mindent a novemberi penz pumpa
csak nehogy a fed meggondolja magat
kirohognem oket........
Nincs megállás. Talán még ma elviszik 1,4-ig, hogy ne aprózzák.:DD
eurusd-ben elmentek nekik otthonról. Megvolt életem legrövidebb kötése: alig adtam be, már ki is stopolták :D Kb. 2 mp-ig élt, és 1,3515 volt a stopja :D ÉS most jön a legjobb: elütöttem a poziméretet egy tizedessel!!! :DDD Így veszítettem kb. 30 Eurot életem leggyorsabb kistopolásával, tehát olcsón megúsztam.
De azért vicces: kitt-katt, és elfüstölt 30 euro...
Ha máshol nem 97-nél biztosan visszapattan. A 96 sem sikerült elsőre. Szerintem nagyon sokan várják a fordulatot. 93-as céláram lenne így első ránézésre. De rövidtávon a h1 200ema 95-nél
Mintha csatornát is váltana.Közeleg a teteje,az rsi nincs a mennyekben,de a korábbi csúcsnál magasabban volt,mint most,így már divergencia is van.
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Morning Adviser Americas 9/28/2010 11:13:00 AM
Peripheral Pains
By Geoffrey Yu
Sovereign concerns over Spain and Ireland dominated in Europe. Speculation of potential downgrades of both countries made for wider bond spreads and euro selling. However, euro losses were reversed when ECB member Stark said that they "are in the process of phasing out some of the non-standard measures [of support]". Shares dropped on the same concerns, as caution prevailed ahead of the US data releases. EURUSD traded 1.3382-1.3494, GBPUSD 1.5781-1.5895 and USDJPY 84.12-84.34.
Investors digested fresh updates on potential policy paths for the Fed and the BoJ and a Wall Street Journal article released after the equity close gave the dollar a slight boost as debasement fears eased somewhat. The article suggested that any further quantitative easing by the Fed could be less heavy-handed than expected as officials continue to monitor the data as they weigh their next move. But it did not necessarily dissuade the notion that more easing is possible.
Our US economists now think the fed funds target will not be hiked until Q3 2011, at least three months later than their original June 2011 forecast. In the aftermath of the latest FOMC decision, our economists do not think further quantitative easing will be necessary but they do acknowledge it is now a much closer call. We therefore lowered our one and three month dollar forecasts to reflect the increased risk of further potential Fed action. On the other side of the Pacific, Nikkei News has also reported the BoJ is mulling fresh policy steps ahead of its policy meeting in early October.
There were no major headline US data releases and investor risk-seeking was muted with equities modestly lower and lower Treasury yields across the curve, which was partially spurred by a good 2-yr auction.
Upcoming data releases include Conference Board Consumer Confidence, S&P/CaseShiller home price data and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey.
Research Spotlight "Is The World Getting Flatter?" UBS G10 FX Strategy
Despite the slopes of bond curves across the advanced economies varying significantly at present, all of them have flattened noticeably over the past few months. While these have largely been bull flattening events, Australia's predominantly bear flattening - and historically more 'average' stage of the economic cycle - may be flagging a future where curves at each level of a country's official policy rate are flatter than they used to be. Please see the "Is The World Getting Flatter?" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.35, 3m 1.25
Speculation of a Spanish downgrade circulated. A major rating agency had previously put Spain on review for a possible downgrade from AAA in June with a 3 month review process that comes to an end this week. Given that the other major ratings agencies already have Spain at least one notch lower, it seems likely that the downgrade will go ahead sometime this week.
Concerns over Ireland remain with another ratings agency suggesting that it might cut the credit rating in the wake of the concerns over a prominent Irish domestic bank and wider issues over political instability. Irish credit spreads reached new all-time euro highs and other peripherals followed as fears over the next bout of peripheral contagion gained momentum.
German GfK was released, giving the highest level of consumer morale in over 2 years, with the forward-looking figure beating consensus with a number of 4.9. Also, regional CPI numbers were released across two-thirds of Germany with aggregates suggesting that national level CPI should fall broadly in line with consensus of -0.2 m/m, 1.3 y/y.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 85
Nikkei News reported late in the previous US session that the BoJ would consider new policy measures at next month's policy meeting, if the recovery is under threat. Measures considered would include increased government bond buying and increasing funding to markets. However, any suggestion that increased JGB issuance would open the way for the government to increase stimulus were dismissed by the MoF overnight, with minister Noda warning that new bond issuance is undesirable for the extra budget. With slightly weaker export growth reported, policymakers are likely to wait for further data clarification before actively proceeding with new policy.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.59, 3m 1.47
Final GDP data was released with few surprises, Q2 GDP was inline with expectations at 1.2% q/q. Cable rallied however, as the current account deficit narrowed slightly to -7.383bn vs. consensus of -9.63bn.
The IMF endorsed the UK's fiscal tightening plans as it greatly reduces the risk of a loss of confidence. The IMF noted that things were on the mend but also stressed that monetary policy will have to be nimble in the event of further downside risks. The October 20 fiscal austerity measures could point to further BoE easing, which policymakers hinted at in the latest BoE minutes. We adjusted our GBPUSD forecasts to reflect the shift in our dollar view but think fiscal austerity could keep the pound weak versus the Swiss franc and the Nordic currencies.
FX Technicals
EURUSD BULLISH Stalled in front of 1.3511; a break here would expose 1.3692. Near-term support comes in at 1.3426 ahead of 1.3287 USDJPY NEUTRAL Holds support at 84.05; 85.93 and 82.88 mark the key near-term directional triggers. GBPUSD BULLISH The pair is expected to target 1.5999 key high with scope for 1.6253 next. Support is defined at 1.5642 ahead of 1.5503 USDCHF BEARISH Following the break of 0.9786, there is scope for next support at 0.9625. Resistance at 0.9983 ahead of 1.0183. AUDUSD BULLISH There is little resistance till 0.9850 key high with initial support defined at 0.9442 ahead of 0.9309 USDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0509 and 1.0108 mark key near-term directional triggers. EURCHF NEUTRAL Trading within 1.3391 and 1.2991 range. Break below 1.2991 would expose 1.2766 key low. EURGBP NEUTRAL Pullback from 0.8577 holds above 0.8390. Break of the latter would expose 0.8309 ahead of 0.8202 EURJPY BULLISH While support at 110.66 holds, expect the cross to target 114.74, ahead of 116.68 and 119.33.
No megyek vissza az odúmba, mert a gyapotföldeken háború várható és lehet ott leszek haditudósító:))
Ez is jó:))
Ha visszaolvasol nálam ollan 700 körüli vonalacska van, még passzolhatnak is:))
Tudod, én nem vagyok TA zseni, csak 1 mezei spekuláns:))
Pont ezért köszi:))
http://www.imagebam.com/image/4a472999731684
erre gondoltam, még mehet egy kicsit, de az elliot 5. hulláma a leg kiszámíthatatlanabb, csak a kitörést számolgattam.
én is erre játszok, de aíg az SnP meg az €é emelkedik meg az arany is /ezek szerint/ nem sok esély van rá.
ráadásul még haviba is egy majdnem tökéletes elliotot, lehet berajzolni és az utolsó korrekciós hullám kitörésének célárát is elérte.
Én 636-ról shortolom. H4-en nagyon szép long trend van. Visszatesztelget a 25 ema-ra,de szerintem már nem sokáig. Már 8% pluszban tart ebben a hónapban. Itt is érik a korrekció.
Pedig most szépen működnek benne a szintek. Nekem annyira nem tűnik bonyolultnak. Igaz a longocskámat 1,3411-rő korán zártam 1,3444-ben.
Nem is feltétlen az EUR miatt mondom. Napok óta megakadt a sávtetőnél, és nem bírt kitörni belőle. Ezért elképzelhető, hogy lefelé megnézi az alját. Bár lehet, hogy rámcáfol, főleg, ha a BoJ rásegít.
