A jenek is pozitív swaposak,azokat érdemes tartogatni 90-ig is. Az nzdchf és nzdjpy-t szoktam longolni fxpro-nál,mert itt ezeknél plusz a swap. Lehetőség az van dögivel,sajnos nem lehet mindegyikben benne lenni. Már annak is örülnék,ha ki tudnám használni azt,amiben benne vagyok.
ma megint elintézték az EU kereskedési időt? Megint a mi időnk alatt fog oldalazni minden? :(((
gbp/chf be parnapon belul korrekcio elkepzelheto 500 p-et ment 3 nap alatt
jovoheten egy shortot meglepek 6030 as stoppal, / de lehet meg ma ha 60 kozelebe rantjak
Morning Adviser Europe 9/17/2010 6:01:00 AM
Dollar Loses Ground
By Gareth Berry
The dollar lost ground against its G10 peers as the start of the European session approached, although USDJPY did not make any decisive moves in either direction. EURUSD traded 1.3061-1.3139, USDJPY 85.60-85.93, and gold is setting new record highs at the time of writing. Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before Congress on China's exchange rate policy and said China needed to allow a "significant, sustained" appreciation of its currency. He added that the US would continue to seek progress along with the G20 on the issue, though he stopped short of any concrete actions.
Senator Dodd emphasized that unilateral intervention by "Japan, China or any other nation, represents a gap in international cooperation on exchange rate policy." In US data, jobless claims fell to 450k and it appears that despite some Labor Day holiday-related volatility, claims are trending down after a midsummer jump. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed rose less than expected to -0.7 and details of the survey were less constructive. PPI figures were in line and the current account deficit widened as expected to 3.4% of GDP, largely on imports. US data has avoided any major disappointments of late but fears of further Fed easing likely remain.
Key Events
17 September 2010 Source: UBS Global Economics Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual
Euro Area 08:00 ECB Euro-Zone Current Account sa (July) EUR bn n/a -4.6 n/a
United States 12:30 CPI (Aug) m-o-m 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
United States 12:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy (Aug) m-o-m 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
United States 12:30 CPI (Aug) y-o-y 1.10% 1.20% 1.10%
United States 12:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy (Aug) y-o-y 1.00% 0.90% 1.00%
United States 13:55 U. of Michigan Confidence (Sep P) index 68.0 68.9 70.0
Research Spotlight
"SNB Turns Gloomy" UBS G10 FX Strategy The Swiss National Bank's unchanged interest rate decision Thursday was accompanied by a remarkably dovish statement. Inflation forecasts were revised down over the entire forecast horizon - a stark reversal from June, when monetary tightening appeared imminent - and growth was seen facing a 'marked slowdown'. It seems clear that franc strength was the key factor in the decision. The realisation that rate hikes are now more distant may well keep EURCHF buoyed for the time being. Please see the "SNB Turns Gloomy" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR
Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15
A relatively successful Spanish bond auction helped boost the euro yesterday, and further gains were adding during the Asia session. The bid-cover ratio on the 2020 Spanish bonds was 2.32 compared to 1.89 at an earlier, similar auction. The bid-cover on the 2041 issue was lower but still above two times. A French auction went smoothly but sovereign concerns remain. Portugal announced it would sell bonds maturing in 2014 and 2020 on September 22.
Eurogroup President Juncker again expressed displeasure with Japan's unilateral intervention but did not think the decision will trouble relations. He said interventions are only fruitful if coordinated and the yen is not overvalued against the euro. He also said problems in Ireland remain but the Irish government is able to deal with them.
CHF
Targets: USDCHF 1m 1.02, 3m 1.13
The SNB left rates unchanged with a target range around 0.25% and delivered a remarkably dovish statement. A strong consensus had looked for unchanged rates (UBS went for a hike) but most will have been surprised by the dovishness of the statement. The inflation forecast has been revised down over the entire forecast horizon and the meeting marked a sharp reversal from the June statement, when it appeared that monetary tightening was imminent. The only hawkish element left over was the admission that expansionary monetary policy was 'currently appropriate, although it poses long-term risks to price stability'. It seems clear that the strength of the franc has been the key factor in the decision. So if one objective of the SNB was to weaken the franc, the message will likely achieve that goal. Many investors will be worried by the gloomy assessment of the SNB and reconsider their CHF longs. The one upside risk for the franc would be if markets more broadly were to become risk averse on the back of the message, in which case safe haven flows would strengthen.
For the next few days, however, it seems likely that the franc will continue to suffer from the realisation that rate hikes are unlikely for the time being. EURCHF may well rise to 1.34 before becoming heavy once again.
JPY
Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95
USDJPY was relatively quiet, suggesting the BoJ has not been active in FX markets since Wednesday.
The Japanese press reported that Prime Minister Kan is to meet US President Obama on September 23, and the subject of FX intervention will be on the agenda. Kan was already due to be in New York to address the UN General Assembly. The proposed meeting does suggest that Japan's unilateral action has raised concerns amongst Japan's trading partners and G7 peers. Finance Minister Noda also alluded to this, noting that he is aware of "various opinions" being held abroad about Japan's latest intervention. Noda went on to say that the intervention was aimed at curbing excessive FX moves, but was not targeting a specific level. Kan has reshuffled his cabinet, and Noda has kept his position as finance minister.
GBP
Targets : GBPCHF 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35
Sterling was hit by far weaker than expected retail sales figures overnight, with August core consumption declining by 0.4% on the month, and headline sales declining by -0.5%. BoE Policymaker Posen said that inflation expectations matter greatly, although policymakers will not need to overreact to the recent elevated inflation readings as long as they can credibly persuade others that the rise in inflation is due to a shock.
We continue to see sterling suffering under a weaker growth environment and data has taken a material turn for the worse of late. The BoE will target inflation expectations but the growth rhetoric is clearly to the downside. We target GBPUSD at 1.50 in 1m.
FX Technicals
EURCHF eyes 1.3345 EURUSD NEUTRAL While support at 1.2919 holds, expect recovery towards 1.3334 and 1.3509
USDJPY NEUTRAL Following the recovery through 85.93, model has turned neutral. Next resistance is at 86.70 ahead of 88.12. Near-term support lies at 85.20.
GBPUSD BULLISH Momentum is bullish; targets 1.5731 with scope for 1.5999 next. Near-term support comes in at 1.5449 ahead of 1.5297
USDCHF BEARISH Focus on 0.9918 with next support at 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of 1.0466.
AUDUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure held at 0.9458 with next resistance at 0.9563. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196.
USDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0509 and 1.0108 mark the key near-term directional triggers.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery eyes 1.3345 next; break here would open 1.3482 Fibonacci level. Support is at 1.2991, yesterday's low.
EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8532 and 0.8142 mark the key directional triggers.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive tone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low.
USDJPY 15 percesen törte az emelkedő trendvonalat és vissza is tesztelte. 85,90-ről short.
oh bocs,
én meg felek tőlük, de a shortot mar én is fontolgatom
Mondom shortok. Bukoban. Lassan fordul vagy zárom.
azok mar szépek, garat!
meddig varod őket fel?
cadjpy, gbpjpy eurjpy.
Nagyságrendileg tegnap 9-10 közötti magasság. (Gbpjpy 132,78)
mifele jeneid vannak honnet?
en is nezegettem usjen-t naposon pl. MA50 es kornyeken dekazik
jenek nem hagynak nyugodni
viszont chf short nem volt rossz otlet 3290 en
egyébként meg a lehőségekről annyit, hogy jpy intervenció előtti est irogattuk, hogy be kellene állni. Az is lemaradt.
Nálam jpy párok (naposon sávtetőn.. durván nézve...)
Ez van,
Anno az első körben 1,3125-on dobtam az utolsó longot. Az volt az alja és visszament 1,38xx fölé, vagyis bőven plusz lett volna. És ráadásul még a swap is pozitiv, vagyis ráértem volna.
Minden nap van lehetőség. Ja ez itt eurchf long, 1 éves pozi utóirata. Ráadásul Zabással bennt álltunk 1,2850-en és 79-en fordult.
A jpy pozikat még tartom...
Az lenne a következő megálló. Visszatesztelne h4 25ma-ra.
Én is nagyon remélem. És azt is hogy a kábel is észhez tér végre.
Forexfactory-n mindenki az 1,3118-at vagy fölötte várja....
