Yen rises after Bank of Japan's special easing disappoints
chf shortok zarva 3014 & 3018
ezt nem értem. CHF-nél ezek nem számítanak. Valaki gondol egy merészet oszt jónapot....
zártam, örülök a pénznek. Bár mindkét pozi esetében pénteki realizálásra számítottam....
szerk. benne maradt (eddig) vagy 20 pip. Jóval lejjebb meg 60 kornyékén veszek belőle és kikapcsolom azt a számlát...
végülis h4en már a vonalat törte
http://a.imageshack.us/img255/5299/usdjpn20100830h4.jpg
de jó lenne ha csinálna egy 84,2 alatti völgyet is:)
euchf szepen alakul
amint lehetoseg van ra en is behuzom a stoppot 0 ba v kis bukoba.
mert egy kis gazt en is erzek a jenek korul
ettol fuggetlenul usd jent 83 korul, font jent 127ig, eujent 105 ig varom.
gbp/chf ben volt egy jo savos vetelem pentken felharomkor adat utan 1,5850 es 1.5860 on 1.5790 stoppal ma mar hajnalban zarta is a gep + 150 el feljebb
most nezem azt is hatha vissza jon egy kis ismetlesre
naahh pénteki eurchf short is zárva. Már csak egy mai gbpusd short pozi maradt egy bennt felejtett 72-es szintről..
szerintetek törik végre a countertrend jen pároknál? vagy 1-ből nem tudja átvinni és csinál még egy alacsonyabb csúcsot?
A jeneknél előbb utóbb shortos vérfürdő lesz. Én kimaradok a shortból a továbbiakban a jenci pároknál. Nyitottam most egy EURJPY longot.
Morning Adviser Americas 8/30/2010 11:37:00 AM
USDJPY Heavy Again
By Geoffrey Yu
USDJPY is trading back below 85 with investors not impressed by the Bank of Japan's JPY10 trn expansion of its 6m lending facility Risk sentiment is mixed, European markets are largely flat, though Asian bourses managed to follow the higher lead set by the US on Friday. London is off on a Bank Holiday. We expect the Fed to remain on data watch in the coming weeks. EURUSD we see rangebound in the near term, while investor focus this week will probably shift back to USDJPY. The Japanese government appears inching ever-closer to acting to push the pair higher, though how successful they will be is another question. Ahead today, the US personal income and spending report is due. EURUSD traded 1.2713-1.2773 overnight and USDJPY 85.62-85.91.
Research Spotlight "Short Sharp Stocks" UBS Macro Keys
The most important issue facing investors now is whether the world's major central banks will resume quantitative easing to support their stuttering economies. However, even if the Fed and its G7 counterparts do not decide to print money again this year, currency markets may still be buffeted by a series of short, sharp shocks as the summer ends, with major US data due this week, Japan's efforts to contain yen strength, Eurozone structural issues and Britain's upcoming austerity programme.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500
ECB President Trichet spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday week but offered very little in terms of policy guidance and spoke more on the longer-term economic prospets for the Eurozone. Trichet again warned on the need to reign in imbalances and government debt levels..
The ECB meets this week and we, along with consensus, expect an unchanged policy rate and do not expect officials to announce any new measures. But it will be interesting if they mention any extension of liquidity operations, particularly following ECB Governing Council memmber Weber's comments on the 3-month liquidity operations.
The sentiment surveys released overnight were largely in line with expectations. Consumer confidence was slightly better on the month (-11 vs. -12 cons.) and the business climate indicator dipped to 0.61 (cons. 0.70). We remain short EURCHF as a trade recommendation.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00
The BoJ held an emergency meeting overnight and announced further easing measures to prevent any more JPY gains. The bank will now supply an additional JPY10tln in 6m funds at fixed rate, though we continue to doubt the efficacy of such measures. The central bank itself does not have the remit to act on the currency but PM Kan may announce more tomorrow - as previously announced.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa met with PM Kan overnight, and according to released comments, the two officials refused to comment on intervention. The government was complimentary of the BoJ's steps overnight, but in the face of selling pressure on USDJPY, the rhetoric was largely unchanged and it remains to be seen just what "decisive action" on FX actually constitutes.
On the data front, industrial production and retail sales are the key releases this week.
NOK Targets: EURNOK 1m 7.8000, 3m 7.6000
In figures released overnight, Norwegian retail sales came in higher than expected at 1.3%m/m, 2.0%y/y. Credit growth increased by less than expected to 4.7% (cons. 4.8%).
Our FX Flow Monitor showed a strong outflow last week, but positioning remains light by its standards and we see value in the currency from current levels.
In Sweden, wages for non-manual works increased by 1.7%y/y. We expect no change by the Riksbank this week (cons. +25bp to 0.75%).
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.90000, 3m 0.8500
Australian Q2 inventories showed a 0.5% decline on the quarter, even though profits were higher. Our economists note the release brings downside risk to their 1% GDP forecast - but expect net exports to add more than consensus tomorrow (UBS 0.7%pts, mkt 0.3%pts), and public demand to be almost flat. HIA New Home Sales came in at -7.0%m/m, down from last month's -5.10% print.
Technicals
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.2933, expect loses to target 1.2588 with scope for 1.2434 Fibonacci retracement level. USDJPY BEARISH Outlook is bearish; Initial support lies at 83.60 break of which would expose 79.75 key support. Short-term resistance is defined at 85.91 intraday high GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral with 1.5713 and 1.5324 marking the key near-term directional triggers. 1.5999 marks a key resistance level. USDCHF BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 1.0131 break of which would open 0.9918. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0466 ahead of 1.0676 AUDUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 0.9222 and 0.8771 act as the next bull and bear triggers respectively. USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0248 holds, expect the gains to target 1.0680 with scope for 1.0853 next. EURCHF BEARISH Focus on 1.2972, recently defined trend low, clearance of which will expose 1.2755 next. Near-term resistance at 1.3242 ahead of 1.3458 EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8068; break of the level would expose 0.7974. Short-term resistance is defined at 0.8247 ahead of 0.8363 EURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 105.44 with scope for 100.00 next. Near-term resistance is defined at 111.11 ahead of 114.74.
en penteken zartam eur/jen es fontjen shortokat, usa euforia miatt, csak egy 110 folotti eurjen hagytam nyitva, 110es stoppal mar egsz szep, 84.50 korul ranyitok egy usdjen -t,
meg mar 132 tol vissza nyitottam font jent, es egy kozepes euchf et 1,3098 tol most orkodok felettuk
most már annyi mindent hallani, hogy zártam a pénteki audjpy shortot 76,22-es bekere volt. Gondolom mindjárt szakad is. A legalacsonyabb vétele 75,84 volt.
http://www.imagebam.com/image/cf5ff295436623
fej váll vissza teszt?
nem, ez ennél sokkal többre jó. Pl. arany long alátámasztva, usdjpy long tilos, eurchf-ben kivárás javasolható, amik összhangban is vannak a chartok által diktáltakkal
usdjpy esetében különösen!!! Mindenki a trendje ellen van...
ez jó, tetszik :)
Ebből is látszik, hogy a forexes többség bukóban ül
ezt a grafikont láttátok már? az oanda long short száma és mérete .
Morning Adviser Europe 8/30/2010 6:22:00 AM
Yen Firm Despite BoJ
By Geoffrey Yu
The BoJ held an emergency meeting overnight and announced further easing in policy by supplying 6m funds totalling JPY10 trn at a fixed rate. This brings the loan facility to JPY30 trn in total. However, the reaction in USDJPY was probably not as strong as authorities would have liked and the MoF will still need to decide on intervention. Otherwise, risk sentiment is steady as Asian indices are following US equity markets higher as Bernanke did not rule out further balance sheet expansion on Friday. He noted that "the committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly". However, he chose not to set out the benchmark for further QE, noting that the "specific criteria" had not been determined yet. Our economists note that his speech gave no signal for near-term change in policy and this would probably be enough to prevent any major downside in the dollar.
Although the US economy is going through a softer patch than expected, additional stimulus is probably unwarranted so soon after the August FOMC meeting, where a shift in policy was already signalled. As such, we expect the Fed to remain on data watch for the coming weeks, beginning with payrolls up ahead, which is expected to remain soft (UBSe. +75k, cons. +47k). The FOMC minutes and manufacturing ISM are also due. We expect EURUSD to remain range-bound in the near term, while investor focus this week will probably shift back to USDJPY where the Japanese government appears inching ever-closer to acting to push the pair higher. Ahead today we expect markets to be somewhat quieter as it is a bank holiday in the UK. EURUSD traded 1.2728-1.2769 overnight and USDJPY 85.25-85.92.
EUR
Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 ECB President Trichet spoke at Jackson Hole last Friday week but offered very little in terms of policy guidance and spoke more on the longer-term economic prospets for the Eurozone. Trichet again warned on the need to reign in imbalances and government debt levels.. The ECB meets this week and we, along with consensus, expect an unchanged policy rate and do not expect officials to announce any new measures. But it will be interesting if they mention any extension of liquidity operations, particularly following ECB Governing Council member Weber's comments on the 3-month liquidity operations. Sentiment surveys are due across the Eurozone today. We remain short EURCHF as a trade recommendation..
JPY
Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00 The BoJ held an emergency meeting overnight and announced further easing measures to prevent any more yen gains. The bank will now supply an additional JPY10 trn in 6m funds at a fixed rate, though we continue to doubt the efficacy of such measures. The central bank itself does not have the remit to act on the currency, and with Governor Shirakawa due to met PM Kan later this week, more policies are probably in the pipeline. Prime Minister Kan noted on Friday that the government would take strong steps to tackle the rise in the yen and these measures would be announced on August 31. This is the strongest signal yet that action will be taken but investors were not impressed, as the sense of urgency is still not present and investors remain doubtful over how effective any action could be. On the data front, industrial production and retail sales are the key releases this week.
AUD
Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.90000, 3m 0.8500
Australian Q2 inventories showed a 0.5% decline on the quarter, even though profits were higher. Our economists note the release brings downside risk to their 1% GDP forecast - but expect net exports to add more than consensus tomorrow (UBS 0.7%pts, mkt 0.3%pts), and public demand to be almost flat HIA New Home Sales came in at -7.0%m/m, down from last month's -5.10% print.
Technicals
USDCHF holds 1.0131 support EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.2933, expect loses to target 1.2588 with scope for 1.2434 Fibonacci retracement level. USDJPY BEARISH Recovery through 85.20 exposes 87.15, but broader focus is still on the downside. Initial support lies at 83.60 ahead of 79.75 key support. GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral with 1.5713 and 1.5324 marking the key near-term directional triggers. 1.5999 marks a key resistance level. USDCHF BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 1.0131 break of which would open 0.9918. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0466 ahead of 1.0676 AUDUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 0.9222 and 0.8771 act as the next bull and bear triggers respectively. USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0248 holds, expect the gains to target 1.0680 with scope for 1.0853 next. EURCHF BEARISH Pressure on 1.2972, recently defined trend low, clearance of which will expose 1.2755 next. Near-term resistance at 1.3242 ahead of 1.3458 EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8068; break of the level would expose 0.7974. Short-term resistance is defined at 0.8247 ahead of 0.8363 EURJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure found support at 105.44; breach of this would expose 100.00 psychological support level. Near-term resistance is defined at 111.11 ahead of 114.74 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.
