A jen pároknál várható nagy mozgás a payrolls-ra. Az irány lutri.
A jen pároknál várható nagy mozgás a payrolls-ra. Az irány lutri.
A papír drága! Három demóval is játszom,az egyiken nemsokára duplázok a másikat rendszeresen nullázom a harmadik még kakukktojás.A real meg stagnál.
igazad van eddig is azt lehetett észrevenni h lecsökkent a likviditás ma meg különösen h ha nem muszáj kötni (miért lenne az ) akkor ne kössetek mert megtréfálhat a piac!
Akkor itt jöttem rá, hogy én teljesen fordítva trédelek. Na papíron beíírom, hogy gbpusd short 1,5240-ről. Szerdán megnézem... (már ha lemegy addig..)
Nem szabad ma kötni szerintem. De elvileg belefér egy korrekció, amúgy pedig longos lett rövid távon. Bár ezen a piacon a daytrade a biztos.
szerintetek gbpusd nem érett meg a shortra?
De ebben az eszméletlen volá-ban eltelik egy óra is mire 10 pipet mozdul...
Ha valakit érdekel. UBS.
Morning Adviser Europe 4/2/2010 5:52:00 AM
US Payrolls Awaited
By Gareth Berry
We previously discussed why our economists are maintaining their forecast for +135k on nonfarm payrolls despite the disappointing ADP estimate of private payrolls. In a recent UBS FX Strategy Comment, we take a look at what reactions we might see from the FX market from the upcoming payroll release. Our economists expect payrolls to show a rise of +135K in March, the first positive print since December 2007. Temporary hiring for the Census is expected to add 45K, while +40K will be due to some payback for blizzard-related layoffs in February. Private payrolls are expected to rise +90K (+40K of which is payback for the bad February weather) and the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 9.6% from 9.7%. The median forecast for March payrolls from the Bloomberg consensus is +184K but the majority of survey forecasters were surveyed prior to the ADP employment release. Therefore, it is possible that the consensus expectation for the March payroll release could be a bit lower than what is currently listed on Bloomberg. Even though consensus estimate may be a bit lower than the +184K listed on Bloomberg due to the ADP disappointment, the consensus estimate is still likely above +100K. As a result, it is possible that in order to get a strong positive reaction in the USD, March payrolls would have to have a large upward surprise. We think that the risk could be tilted toward a slightly disappointing number relative to market participants' somewhat high expectations and, as a result, we have closed our long USDJPY recommendation. We remain long EURJPY from 125.22, however, as this cross is likely to be less affected than USDJPY by a weaker than expected US Payroll result. For those market participants who think a large upward surprise in March US payrolls is likely, our EM FX strategy team is short EURMXN as a recovery in the US benefits Mexico. The same would be true for Canada as well and thus would be CAD positive against a non-USD cross.
G10 FX
USD: Awaiting payrolls The dollar was steady during the Asia session despite slightly stronger equities. EURUSD traded 1.3562-1.3591 and USDJPY 93.68-93.95. St. Louis Fed President Bullard said he did not want to get boxed in about the timing of future Fed actions though he did say he was contemplating moving the discount rate spread above the Fed Funds target back to 100bp. Bullard also said that any change in the Fed's extended period language would not necessarily signal a shift in policy, like other officials have already noted. New York Fed President Dudley said that the Fed may do some large reverse repo tests before removing the 'for an extended period' language. It was not immediately clear whether he meant such larger tests could be tried using the existing primary dealer network, or whether such tests would have to await the inclusion of money market funds as reverse repo counterparties. The manufacturing ISM index surged to 59.6 (UBSe: 56.5, cons: 57.0) in Mar from 56.5 in Feb. Details showed gains in four the five components. The employment index, however, slipped slightly but still indicates net headcount gains. The acceleration in manufacturing output in Q1 extends the pattern of better than expected overall economic data during Q1 and it also underscores the upside risks to our forecasts for real GDP in Q1 (est: +2.5% a.r.) and 2010 as a whole (est: 3.0% calendar average). Meanwhile, new jobless claims fell to 439k (cons & UBSe 440k). This re-establishes a downtrend that was interrupted in February and January. We closed our long USDJPY recommendation for a profit due to uncertainty surrounding the nonfarm payrolls figure and as we remain on watch for a potential revaluation from China, which would push USDJPY and USD/Asia crosses lower. But we look to re-enter the trade as we remain structurally bullish on USD versus JPY.
EUR, CHF: EURCHF spikes higher Eurozone manufacturing PMI was slightly better than the preliminary release and our economists note that most forward looking components are very solid, which means upside momentum in manufacturing activity remains intact. German manufacturing surprised positively as well and with the greatly diminished risk of a Greek default this year, investors will likely refocus on Eurozone economic growth prospects. Given the lower sovereign default risk in the Eurozone, we remain long EURJPY with a wide stop at 122.80 as a trade recommendation as an adjustment in Eurozone growth expectations to the upside is likely. This in combination with firm risk sentiment, and a rising probability for significant capital outflows from Japan will likely continue to support the euro versus the yen. Swiss PMI positively surprised at 65.5 vs consensus 59.0. But around mid-day during the US session, as EURCHF made new lifetime lows, EURCHF and USDCHF jumped to intraday highs of 1.4411 and 1.0610, respectively, before settling back to 1.4324 and 1.0542 at the time of writing. The SNB reiterated their intervention policy at the March policy meeting and all three policy board members have subsequently re-committed publicly to implementing it to prevent 'excessive' gains in the franc.
JPY: Kan still eyeing special accounts Finance Minister Kan said that there remained pockets of weakness in the economy but that things were finally looking up. He repeated he was investigating ways in which reserves held in special FX accounts could be used to fund part of this year's fiscal deficit. Also, ahead of his meeting this weekend with China Premier Wen, he added that trying to pressure China into allowing the CNY to appreciate is not necessarily a good idea.
GBP: Manufacturing activity rising At 57.2 (cons.56.8, prev. 56.6) manufacturing PMI in March grew at the fastest pace since 1994. According to our economists strength is broad based by sector and company size, suggesting that the recovery is sustainable. Overall the survey is therefore consistent with a further improvement in growth conditions. However, as long as the MPC remains in a wait and watch mode, data will unlikely have a major impact on the BoE's stance on monetary policy. For now sterling will likely remain in demand. Improving growth conditions and prospects of rising M&A activity support the currency.
Mai nap a legideálisabb egy újabb intervencióra! Mindenki zárva, kevesen kereskednek, olcsó lehetőség
http://www.quaestor.hu/index.phtml?ow_page_number=1439&hlid=13741
Már ha jól látom árupiac nincs, indexek és futik nincsennek (többség).
Akkor minden pénz a bét-en fog csoportosulni....
Érdekes nap lesz a mai. A forex fele megy, a másik fele nem...
Én most 5millával tettem a korrekcióra és a guta út meg. Elég lenne mára nekem még 20 pont lefelé, de nem....
egyetértek veled köszi szépen
a jenes dolog elég érdekes mert hmm beleférhet egy jó kis kör lefelé de mint mondtam a 127,70 lehet felfelé a megálló
És nyomják fel a jeneket továbbra is. Ezek ....... azok:)))
A mai interveni egyértelmű volt. Számomra. Bár a múltkor is az volt, így csak 100K-val léptem be. És innen még nem lesz fel szerintem. 1,4 alá fog szúrni. Legalábbis így gondolom. Onnan lesz a komoly intervenció.
ehhhh ez az snb gyertya franko volt :D
épp moziban voltunk még film elött látom h hirtelen a számlám cseppet megugrott egyenlegügyileg :D:D:D le is zártam igaz nem a tetején hanem egy 50 ponttal lejjebb de igy is bőven plusszos. :D
eur jen shortok nyitva :D
