Nem állítom, hogy igazam van, de ha picit eltávolodsz /telek őszi munka:)/ és összerakod a mozaikokat, teljesen más kép jön elő, mint amit hablatyolnak. Én csak figyelemfelhívásként hangosan gondolkodtam, meglátjuk mi sül ki belőle.:))
Nem állítom, hogy igazam van, de ha picit eltávolodsz /telek őszi munka:)/ és összerakod a mozaikokat, teljesen más kép jön elő, mint amit hablatyolnak. Én csak figyelemfelhívásként hangosan gondolkodtam, meglátjuk mi sül ki belőle.:))
jok ezek a bemasolasaid: "USDJPY BEARISH" he-he
GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500 nem vicces
mondjuk en tenyleg hagyom kicsit lenyugodni a piacot
usd/cad short
aud/usd long
eur/aud short -> tartva
jenek stoppolodtak
aud/jen 0 ba zartam
Morning Adviser Americas 9/15/2010 11:26:00 AM
Intervention Abroad, Too
By Geoffrey Yu
The dollar rose sharply against the yen throughout the Asia and European sessions, shortly after hitting a new low as the USDCNY midpoint fixed lower for a fifth successive day. Finance Minister Noda soon confirmed that Japan had intervened in the FX market, its first such move since Q1 2004. USDJPY rapidly jumped a big figure and has continued to rise amid wire reports of continued but intermittent intervention.
Noda said that he could not overlook the yen's recent rise, and had asked the BoJ to intervene at 0130 GMT. He added that the intervention was a solo effort by Japan and was not internationally coordinated, but said he was communicating with overseas authorities. The Fed and the US Treasury declined to comment. The MoF also confirmed that they were also intervening in overseas markets, suggesting that they are prepared for the long slog. Estimates of total action across markets vary but it is possible that the amount down overnight is already approaching the total amount done in Q1 2003, which was over $20 bn. Although the overnight intervention should put a short term floor under USDJPY, we expect the pair to remain heavy over the medium term as the market continues to worry about the possibility of further QE by the Fed. These fears resurfaced yesterday, leading to broad dollar weakness, despite slightly stronger US retail sales data.
We do not think the Fed will announce anything imminently as the data has not been weak enough to argue for further easing and some officials are pointing to fiscal stimulus as a better policy response. Despite the stronger retail sales, there were still some signs of a hesitant consumer as larger ticket items were softer. Even so, real consumer spending (including services) appears to be accelerating and our economists estimate that it is rising at a 2.2% annual rate so far in Q3, up from the 1.9% pace in H1. Upcoming US data releases include industrial production and capacity utilization.
Research Spotlight "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" UBS G10 FX Strategy Recent gains in the yuan have raised eyebrows, not least due to Beijing's acquiescence in a stronger currency. More often than not moves in USDCNY are considered gestural. With event risk rising rapidly, Washington and Beijing are probably trying hard to prevent growing acrimony in economic relations. However, if such efforts go awry, markets will not respond positively; selling of USDJPY and a general risk unwind are the likeliest reaction. We outline the key events over the next six weeks. Please see the "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 Eurogroup chair Juncker has already expressed his displeasure over Japan's actions, warning that unilateral action is not the appropriate way to deal with global imbalance on currency markets. ? Eurozone CPI came in at 1.0%y/y, slightly higher than expected, while Eurozone employment was largely flat on the quarter, as expected. Investors are also interested in what courses of action the SNB may take on EURCHF now that more OECD nations look into moving unilaterally.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95
Japan has intervened unilaterally in the FX market for the first time since Q1 2004. Wires reports quoted unnamed market sources estimating that between ?200 bn and ?300 bn had been sold. An unnamed senior MoF source indicated that this could be an extended campaign of intervention, depending on how the market responds. Finance Minister Noda did not indicate a particular level in USDJPY at which further interventions might be conducted, but Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku said it was his understanding that USDJPY 82.00 was the line of defense. So far, there has been no official comment on whether the intervention is sterilised, but local newswires reported that the BoJ would leave the intervention unsterilized. The BoJ said that it is hoped some funding will be made available in the form of additional liquidity, but the balance sheet of the BoJ would also remain unchanged. It is hard to reconcile these two aspects but the mention of intervention proceeds ending up in a special account points to technicalities of the matter. Money supply is expected to rise in Japan in due course. If today's FX action is part of a campaign of intervention, this could put a floor under USDJPY in the 80-85 area. We still think USDJPY should stay heavy as fears of further Fed QE persist. Japanese PM Kan said intervention was necessary because the JPY had reached a level where action was needed.
NZD Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70 We do not expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR, particularly as the recent earthquake will likely dampen near-term growth prospects. The forecasts in the MPS will be examined for the extent of downward revisions to near-term growth and inflation, especially following the recent comments by the Treasury on the impact to growth. The policy assessment will also be scrutinised for the bank's views on the impact of recent troubles in the domestic banking system.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500 Sterling weakened on the accelerating decline in UK house prices according to the RICS house balance for August before rebounding in the broader dollar sell-off. The RICS data was -32% versus consensus -12%.In other data, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.1%y.y, but monthly sequential inflation was again higher than expected at 0.5%. Martin Weale, in his testimony, brushed off any suggestion that there was scope for changing in the inflation target, but implicitly acknowledged that inflationary pressures were somewhat stronger than expected, calling the OBR's 4% output gap estimate "plausible". The claimant count rate released overnight was steady at 4.5% but claims unexpectedly rose by 2.3k, while weekly earnings (ex-Bonus) were higher than expected at 1.8% 3m/y/y. The ILO unemployment rate was steady at 7.8%. Mervyn King's comments were not market moving but he warned that banks' balance sheets were still not robust and stuck to a generally dovish tone.
FX Technicals EURGBP 0.8532 resistance EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2588 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY BEARISH Sudden recovery through 84.43 exposes 85.91 and 86.70. Model is still bearish with support at 82.88 intraday low. GBPUSD NEUTRAL 1.5731 and 1.5297 mark the near-term directional triggers. USDCHF BEARISH Focus on 0.9918 with next support at 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH Expect the gains to extend towards 0.9563. Near-term support is at 0.9309. USDCAD BEARISH Following the break of 1.0248, model has bearish. Next support at 1.0108 with resistance at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3924 found support at 1.2766; break of the level would expose 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP NEUTRAL Clearance of 0.8390 exposes 0.8532 next. Move below 0.8252 and 0.8142 next required to reinstate the bearish tone. EURJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 111.19 holds, recovery is seen as a correction. Support at 107.73 ahead of 105.44
És még politika is lehet mögötte. Mondjuk a BoJ nem örül Kan győzelmének, és ezzel "hiteltelenítette". Mert ugye Kan türelemre intő volt az intervencióval kapcsolatban. Noda pedig eddig érdekes módon nem tudott zöld ágra vergődni jen ügyben. Szóval furcsa.
És az eurót legkésőbb azon a szinten, amit reggel írtam 1,306 körül pofán verik. És a jen követni fogja szerintem lefelé, 86 környékéről, ha nem hamarabb mindkettő esetében.
Lehet nem lenne hülyeség. Aranyból,frankból kiszállnának a longosok átvándorolna a részvényekbe a pénz,mert az most úgy is olcsó. A dollárt elkezdenék felverni az olaj ára lemenne 60alá az olcsó üzemanyag megtenné hatását és mindenki örülhet.
Jól van na,már keresem a gyógyszerem!
Államilag az. A Goldman keze lehet még benne, lásd a tegnapi cikket is. ECB nem partner az euró erősítésében, ez kizárt. SNB lehet ludas a BoJ-al, mint már napok óta írom, de ketten kevesek az ECB és a FED nélkül, és ne felejtsük Kínát, ha tovább folytatja a japán kötvényvásárlást, nem az intervenció oldalán "dolgozik".
az jo lesz SNB is belep, akkor mindenkie olcso lesz! usa, ch, jp, kie lesz draga, hat persze megint az eu sziv
kinti forumokon is eleg nagy a tanacstalansag
raadasul en v.hol azt olvastam hogy a legtobb nagy export ceg 85-86 korulig levan fedezve
akkor ennek jo sok ertelme volt
de azert a japok sem hulyek , biztos atszamoltak es attgondoltak 1000-szer mit miert csinalnak
ezek mind shortok voltak. A többi is az, de azok más pozi méretek...
azért gbpjpy be visszaálltam 132,78-ra. Hátha valaki mellé üt és újbol lehet egy kis shört...
...és még egy! Eme eszmefuttatásom egyetlen és érdekes vesztese az eur lesz, vagyis eurusd short! :)
szerk....nem lesz hanem lehet! :)
Bezártam mindet 85,03-on végül is 3pipet hagytam benne. Pedig közben kinéztem a 84,70-es megállót. De most hanyagolom egy kicsit. Van egy árva usdchf longom 1 alatt,hátha itt is közbelépnek.
Szerintem meg nem véletlen az intervenció mai-tegnapi kezdete. Ha holnap a svájci jegybank kamatot emel, akkor feltételezhetően az is erősödni fog tlkp mindennel szemben. Usdx is egy kis dollár erősödést jelez, vagyis a jen gyengítéséhez a napokban kevesebb intervencio kell.
Szerk...holnap érdekes lehet egy chfjpy cross :)
lehet, hogy valamelyik japcsi jegybanktagot rajtakapták valami szado-mazo gruppen bulin, és most politikai nyomásra interveniálni kezdenek :D
egyéb ötlet, hogy az eddigi anti-jengyengítő politikát most miért adták fel hirtelen így a semmi közepén?
milyen pozik es merre long v short?
remelem csak penzegetes lesz nekik
de akkor szemelyesen hivom fel a boj -t es kirohogom
Én 85.35-ös shortom most zártam....estére longolni fogom aszem.