nah ez most nagyon beindult:)
brutál erős lett az eur:)
nah ez most nagyon beindult:)
brutál erős lett az eur:)
Aha, így már értem. Biztos nem olvastam el a 100 euróson ezt a feliratot.
Biztos lenni én hülye, de nem értem, hogy erre a xar.brit adatra miért indult fel az euró?
UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) AUG out at -0.4% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.9% prior.
FedEx earnings report today's joker in the market
Mads Koefoed, Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank
The rally in equities is fading and it seems that the fuel sparked by the Bank Of Japan intervention is already waning. It is a bit soon giving the very strong signal that Bank of Japan sent and with the expectation that FED will engage in a similar action before year-end. This warns us that risk is not going to be spurred that much by central bank intervention (unlike our initial assumption).
You should not, however, engage in a battle with central banks because you, for sure, are going to lose. Central banks are intent on securing is a flat yield curve with the long end of the curve trending down. In order to secure a decent return investors will need to add risk and this means keeping their exposure to equities and therefore this level of interest rates and expected development will keep a floor under equities. We still see equities range trade towards year end.
Nem mindig értem, hogy ha Yen short-ról beszélsz, akkor az valóban például USDJPY long, vagy esetleg nem erre gondolsz, hanem Yen párok shortjairól. Köszi!
ahhh nekem sincs semmi otlet
usd/cad, eur/aud shortok, aud/usd longojaim tartogatom
ubs vszeg ma teved a chf kamat emelesel kapcsolatban, sztem se emelnek ma
De ahhoz sincs lövésem, hogy az EU és dollár párok milyen irányt vesznek.
Legalábbis nekem most gőzöm nincs, hogy milyen irányba álljak az EU devizák, valamint a jen esetében.
Ha másra nem, arra jó volt a japcsik intervenciója, hogy még nagyobb bizonytalanság legyen a pénzpiacokon.
Morning Adviser Europe 9/16/2010 6:00:00 AM
Yen Comes To Rest
By Gareth Berry
USDJPY was quiet during the Asia session in the aftermath of yesterday's intervention by the BoJ. USDJPY traded 85.23-85.77 and EURUSD traded 1.2976-1.3023. Prime Minister Kan suggested that further episodes of intervention could follow, repeating his pledge that the government will take decisive steps to counter the yen's rise when needed, and that rapid yen moves would not be allowed. Both Finance Minister Noda and Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Tamaki declined to comment on the intervention. Earlier, the MoF confirmed that they were also intervening in overseas markets, which helped to explain price action during the US session. Nikkei news reported that JPY intervention exceeded JPY2 trn for the day. The Fed and US Treasury declined to comment on Japan's currency intervention However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that unilateral currency intervention was not the appropriate way to deal with global imbalances. Although the BoJ's actions yesterday should put a short-term floor under USDJPY, we expect the pair to remain heavy over the medium term as the market continues to worry about the possibility of further QE by the Fed. US Treasury Secretary Geithner is due to testify before the Ways and Means Committee of the US House later today. Although China's exchange rate policy is intended to be the focus, questions on Japan's currency are also likely to arise given the timing of yesterday's intervention, and the fact that Committee Chairman Levin has already described the BoJ's actions as "deeply disturbing". Initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Index are also due.
Research Spotlight "Japan Intervenes In FX" UBS G10 FX Strategy USDJPY straightlined two figures higher after again breaking down through 83.00, and Finance Minister Noda confirmed that Japan had intervened in the market, its first such move since Q1 2004. Noda said that the intervention was a solo effort. Nikkei news has reported that Japan will be leaving the intervention unsterilised, but there has been no official confirmation yet. If the authorities really want to put a floor under USDJPY at 80-85, this will need to last weeks, not days. Please see the " Japan Intervenes In FX " note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR, CHF Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 Eurozone CPI came in at 1.0% y/y, slightly higher than expected, while Eurozone employment was largely flat on the quarter, as expected. The SNB's latest policy decision is due and our Swiss economist expects a 25bp hike to the 3m CHF Libor target, taking it to 50bp. The Swiss government has just raised its 2010 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 1.8% and lowered its 2011 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.6%.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95 BoJ Governor Shirakawa spoke, but offered no clarity on whether the injection of yen liquidity brought about by yesterday's intervention would be sterilized. Instead, he again repeated his misgivings about quantitative easing, saying it only had a limited effect on prices, and a limited effect in stimulating the economy. Without citing sources, Nikkei news reported that the intervention would in fact be unsterilized and that yesterday's intervention was the largest single-day yen selling intervention on record.
NZD Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70 The RBNZ kept its policy rate on hold and had a dovish policy announcement. The earthquake is seen to disrupt economic activity ahead, and household spending is soft. The RBNZ noted that the pace of expansion in the global economy "has slowed in recent months with forward looking growth indicators of US growth, in particular, deteriorating noticeably." The RBNZ also said that inflation spikes due to the GST or the aftermath of price rises due to the earthquake will be looked through. The NZD weakened post the rate announcement. Our New Zealand economist consequently sees fewer rate hikes ahead. He had pencilled in a 25bp move at the December MPS but considers it more likely that the OCR will remain unchanged at 3.0% for the rest of this year. Nonetheless, this still means a path for policy rates that will involve a mixture of hikes and pauses, with the timing sensitive to the state of the global and domestic outlook. He sees the OCR reaching 4.0% by the end of 2011 (25bp per quarter, with each MPS) and likely taking until mid-2012 to be in the 'neutral' range of 4.5-5.0%.
FX Technicals
EURJPY resistance at 114.74 EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2588 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery held below 85.91 ahead of 86.70 Fibonacci resistance. Near-term resistance lies at 84.01 retracement level. GBPUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.5297, expect gains towards 1.5731 with scope for 1.5999 USDCHF BEARISH Focus on 0.9918 with next support at 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure held at 0.9458 with next resistance at 0.9563. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196. USDCAD BEARISH Following the break of 1.0248, model has turned bearish. Next support at 1.0108 with resistance at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3924 found support at 1.2766; break of the level would expose 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8532 and 0.8142 mark the key directional triggers EURJPY NEUTRAL Climb through 111.19 exposes 114.74. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
Azzal még nem lenne baj, hogy ott vannak, de azzal már baj van, hogy saját érdekeik érvényesítésére adnak ki "elemzéseket, előrejelzéseket". És azzal is baj van, hogy a piaci szereplők nagy része hisz nekik még mindig.
Nagyobb mozgásra számitottam északára de nem baj, igy is jo.Valszeg igazad van.A japók csak égetik a pénzüket.
azert az fura, hogy GS mindig mindenhol ott van, japan. gorog, fed stb.
kivancsi lennek menny jen short pozi vettek fel kedden...........pffffffffff
Morning Adviser Asia 9/15/2010 10:16:00 PM
Japan Intervention Continues
By Amelia Bourdeau
The market was pre-occupied with USDJPY, which continued to rise amid wire reports of continued but intermittent intervention in the London and NY trading sessions. The MoF confirmed that they were also intervening in overseas markets, suggesting that they are prepared for the long slog. Nikkei news reported that JPY intervention totalled more than JPY 2 trillion for the day. The Fed and the US Treasury declined to comment on Japan's currency intervention. However, Eurogroup chair Junker said that unilateral currency intervention was not the appropriate way to deal with global imbalances.
Although the most recent intervention should put a short term floor under USDJPY, we expect the pair to remain heavy over the medium term as the market continues to worry about the possibility of further QE by the Fed. We do not think the Fed will announce anything imminently as some Fed officials are pointing to fiscal stimulus as a better policy response and further weakening in US economic data will likely also be needed to trigger further quantitative easing.
Data releases in the US today were largely second tier and not market moving. The Empire manufacturing index came in below expectations at 4.1 vs. the previous read of 7.1. Ahead tomorrow is US Treasury Secretary Geithner's testimony on China's exchange rate policy with the US House Ways and Means Committee. Questions on Japan's currency are also likely to come up given the recent intervention. Initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Index will also be released.
Research Spotlight "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" UBS G10 FX Strategy Recent gains in the yuan have raised eyebrows, not least due to Beijing's acquiescence in a stronger currency. More often than not moves in USDCNY are considered gestural. With event risk rising rapidly, Washington and Beijing are probably trying hard to prevent growing acrimony in economic relations. However, if such efforts go awry, markets will not respond positively; selling of USDJPY and a general risk unwind are the likeliest reaction. We outline the key events over the next six weeks. Please see the "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR: Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 Eurogroup chair Juncker has already expressed his displeasure over Japan's actions, warning that unilateral action is not the appropriate way to deal with global imbalance on currency markets.
Eurozone CPI came in at 1.0%y/y, slightly higher than expected, while Eurozone employment was largely flat on the quarter, as expected. Investors are also interested in what courses of action the SNB may take on EURCHF now that more OECD nations look into moving unilaterally.
JPY: Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95 On September 15, Japan intervened unilaterally in the FX market for the first time since Q1 2004. An unnamed senior MoF source indicated that this could be an extended campaign of intervention, depending on how the market responds. Finance Minister Noda did not indicate a particular level in USDJPY at which further interventions might be conducted, but Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku said it was his understanding that USDJPY 82.00 was the line of defense. So far, there has been no official comment on whether the intervention is sterilised, but local newswires reported that the BoJ would leave the intervention unsterilized. . Nikkei news reported that JPY intervention totalled more than JPY 2 trillion for the day - the largest single-day Yen selling intervention on record.
If today's FX action is part of a campaign of intervention, this could put a floor under USDJPY in the 80-85 area. We still think USDJPY should stay heavy as fears of further Fed QE persist. Japanese PM Kan said intervention was necessary because the JPY had reached a level where action was needed.
NZD: Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70 The RBNZ kept its policy rate on hold and had a dovish policy announcement. The earthquake is seen to disrupt economic activity ahead, and household spending is soft. The RBNZ noted that the pace of expansion in the global economy "has slowed in recent months with forward looking growth indicators of US growth, in particular, deteriorating noticeably." The RBNZ also said that inflation spikes due to the GST or the aftermath of price rises due to the earthquake will be looked through. NZD weakened post the rate announcement.
GBP: Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500 The claimant count rate released overnight was steady at 4.5% but claims unexpectedly rose by 2.3k, while weekly earnings (ex-Bonus) were higher than expected at 1.8% 3m/y/y. The ILO unemployment rate was steady at 7.8%. BoE Governor King's comments in a speech to the trades Union Congress were not market moving but he warned that banks' balance sheets were still not robust and stuck to a generally dovish tone.