Linda the bank teller case

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman are famous for their work on a large number of cognitive fallacies that we all tend to commit over and over again. One is what they call the conjunction fallacy. The most famous illustration of this fallacy is Linda the Bank Teller case. Tversky and Kahneman (1983) asked participants to solve the following problem.

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable?

1. Linda is a bank teller.
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

More than 80 percent of participants chose option 2, regardless of whether they were novice, intermediate or expert statisticians. However, the probability of two events occurring in conjunction is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. Compare the Linda case to the following case: what is more likely: that (1) you will have a flat tire tomorrow morning or that (2) you will have a flat tire tomorrow and that a man in a black car will stop to help you out. In this case, it should be evident that (2) is not the most likely outcome.

--
Érdekes. Nem gondolnám h 80% így válaszol.