Re: nincs cím

UBS

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00 We think USDJPY will fall to the lower end of its recent 85-95 range and doubt the Ministry of Finance will authorise any direct intervention in the FX market. What may arrest the decline of USDJPY, however, is the Bank of Japan announcing new market measures, as it did in Q4 2009, when it held 3m tenders of yen liquidity. However, there is little sign of that happening in the near term, except for the introduction of a new lending scheme which has been well signaled in advance and is due to become operational later this month.

USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 88.12 holds, expect the negative momentum to move towards 84.83 ahead of 81.85.

GBPUSD BULLISH Break of 1.5816 has opened up the way for further gains towards 1.6069. Near-term support comes in at 1.5552 ahead of 1.5125

Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500 UK PMI surprised to the upside at 57.3 (cons. 57.0), while the June figure was also revised higher. These results may alleviate growth concerns in the near term, but with housing activity showing a slowdown is in the works amid weak credit growth, we expect policymakers to remain dovish. Banking sector earnings will be released throughout the week and strong results may encourage further asset reallocation flows in light of disappointing stress-test results in the Eurozone. We remain short GBPCHF via a put spread with strikes at 1.6300 and 1.5425.