Re: nincs cím

[NY FED ON DOUBLE-DIP ODDS] Their recession-risk model shows near zero odds of a recession risk over next 12 months. Their model uses the spread between 10-yr note and 3-mth T-bill rates. April data shows only odds of just 0.04% of a recession. The spread averaged 3.69 in April and so far in May is averaging about 3.31 points. Note the NY Fed's model posted over 40% odds of a recession back in in Nov 2007. Meanwhile, some leading gauges as ECRI point to a slowing pace ahead for the recovery but not stalling out, with its annualized growth rate down to a 10-mth low of 9% and well off last Oct's peak of nearly 29%.

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