Re: EURUSD

Cable Overstretched

Our Trend-Cycle model remains bearish cable, and we remain short from 1.5632.

Wave patterns, however, point to a potential low forming soon. Yesterday's selloff tested the 1.5196 measured target (1.5576 minus 1.6458-1.6078), but the wave 5 decline from the Feb. 23 high of 1.5576 needed one more run lower. We're getting that now.

Wave ((v)) of 5 from 1.5317 (overnight high) has room to run toward 1.5136, where it will equal the distance traveled in wave ((i)) (1.5576-1.5395). While there's little below that until the 1.4855 (0.618 of 1.3503-1.7043) to 1.4718 (1.6878 minus 1.618 of 1.7043-1.5708) cluster, the wave ((v)) of 5 of (C) position means that the meat of this decline is behind us.

Another warning to bears: the one-week cycle is due to bottom today, and the broad 20-week cycle is entering its base phase next week. In the short term, watch resistance at 1.5317; a move above there would be the first actual warning that a bottom is forming.

Please see the attachment for technical charts.

UBS trade