en is olvasom rendszeresen, nem akarnak surun valtozatatni gondolom en a hitelesseg miatt,
lassan viszont az 1,28 at 1,38 ra kell valtozatni,
ha beindul a nyomda, akkor meg 1,5 szintek is elokerulhetnek
(csak azt nem ertem ez miert jo a kotveny piacuknak?)
Oráson minha zászlót épitene.Lehet letörés lesz.
Ezen nem szoktak változtatni? "Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15"
Amúgy köszönet érte,hogy mindig beteszed!
3335 ot attori, akkor irany az 1.38
mondjuk kicsit vicces, ha azt nezzuk mindenki $ erosodest var
Morning Adviser Asia 9/21/2010 11:34:00 PM
Fed Boosts Risk Seeking
By Amelia Bourdeau
The FOMC announcement boosted risk-seeking sentiment. The September FOMC statement read more dovish than the August statement. While the growth outlook was unchanged, the Fed had a downgrade to its inflation assessment. The FOMC noted that "Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability." The policy guidance sentence was changed a bit to "the Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate." The phrase "prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed" compares to the August statement language of "will employ its tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability."
With the downgraded assessment of inflation and the fact that the Fed was "prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed," the market interpreted this as the FOMC committee leaning towards further quantitative easing and commodity currencies gained in response to the announcement as did EUR and GBP against the USD. As the US 2 year yield came under pressure in reaction to the FOMC announcement, USDJPY moved lower. The S&P 500 rose initially, but ended the day down 0.3%. Gold made a new high, at the time of writing, of 1290.40. For the session, EURUSD traded 1.3135-1.3286, USDJPY 84.98-85.66, and GBPUSD 1.5502-1.5643. Risk seeking sentiment in currencies may prove temporary as market participants will likely need to have the Fed actually announce further quantitative easing for risk seeking to be more sustainable. Our US economists continue to expect recovery in activity and believe that core inflation has bottomed - an outlook which argues against further quantitative easing.
EUR
Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15
Peripheral spreads tightened, following a successful Irish auction, as limited supply and domestic demand ensured it ran smoothly. The Spanish and Greek auctions were also well received. Portuguese 10y spreads fell around 6 bps, while secondary market buying in the run up to the Irish auction also helped events. The Euro reached a 2-month high versus sterling in the run-up to this, up 0.6% on the day as real-money accounts followed consensus of a solid auction. There now appears to be an emerging pattern of successful peripheral auctions and sell-offs in between.
The ECB announced that ?323 mn (prev. ?237 mn) in sovereign bond purchases settled last week. ECB activity in the sovereign bond space is clearly trending higher and yet bond spreads of Portugal and Ireland continue to rise steadily.
NOK
Targets : EURNOK 1m 7.80, 3m 7.60
Norges Bank meets tomorrow, no change in the policy rate is expected by both UBS and the consensus.
AUD
Targets : AUDUSD 1m 0.90, 3m 0.85
The minutes of the RBA's September 7 meeting echoed the hawkish sentiments expressed yesterday by RBA Governor Stevens. Our Australian economics team notes that the key phrase "&higher interest rates would be required, at some point, to ensure that inflation remained consistent with the medium-term target" represents a clear escalation of hawkishness relative to the August meeting minutes. Our economists expect another 25bp hike either at the October or the November meetings, with a greater probability of a move in October.
CAD
Targets : USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.02
Canada's headline CPI came in lower than expected at -0.1%m/m and 1.7% year-on-year. The core CPI came in on expectations at +0.1%m/m and 1.6% year-on-year. Ahead tomorrow are Canada retail sales for July.
We remain long USDCAD at 1.0260 as a trade recommendation, targeting a rise to 1.0650 with a stop at 1.0050.
GBP
Targets : GBPUSD 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35
Public borrowing figures were released in the UK, sporting record numbers of ?15.302bn public sector net borrowing, as higher inflation increased interest payments on index-linked gilts. Even though some of the upward EURGBP movement can be attributed to this, the bond markets were fairly unmoved by the figures, as the yearly borrowing figures seem set to fall broadly in-line.
Ahead, the Bank of England minutes will be released.
CHF
Targets : USDCHF 1m 1.02, 3m 1.13
Switzerland's trade balance fell to CHF 0.57bn in August, as real exports declined by 1.4% m/m. However, the annualized figure was impressive at 8.6% y/y, despite the strong CHF. Money supply figures were also released, with M0 falling well below consensus at 17%, while M3 beat estimates, increasing by 6.6%. the result may raise questions about the scale of credit growth in Switzerland and whether the SNB is being too dovish.
Technical FX
EURGBP resistance at 0.8532
EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2919 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY NEUTRAL Pullback from 85.93 has scope for 84.05. GBPUSD BULLISH Model is bullish; while support at 1.5297 holds, expect gains to target 1.5729 ahead of 1.5999 USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9933/18; move below this range would expose 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0183 ahead of 1.0392 AUDUSD BULLISH Clearance of 0.9500 exposes 0.0.9563 and then 0.9850. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196. USDCAD NEUTRAL Momentum is slowing; while support holds at 1.0216, resistance comes in at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery found resistance at 1.3391 ahead of 1.3482 retracement level. Near-term support comes in at 1.2991 EURGBP NEUTRAL Sustained break of 0.8532 would trigger positive trend. 0.8311 marks the near-term support ahead of 0.8142 EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive tone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action.
én megyek lassan,reggel aratni akarok :)jó éjt,jó munkát:)hali
igen ilyenkor nyugi van..utánanézek pár dolognak.. amik a munkámhoz a terveimhez kellenek..inkább reggel alszom..
? nem tudom..én inkább longos.. de a helyzet hozza..
arany sztem túlértékelt..
no mi vagyunk éjjeli baglyok..holnap kis öntést várnék
Jó pár éve olvasgatom beirásaidat nagy shortos voltál a forumon.
