EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDHUF, EURUSD mindegyik majd kiverte a monitor tetejét.....
EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDHUF, EURUSD mindegyik majd kiverte a monitor tetejét.....
AUDUSD?
mert az szép momentumot csinált, még, jó hogy nem shortoltam be
Mi a fene volt ez a felszúrás??????
Illetve indítanak egy Magyar-Román forex rangadót 2010. október 4-15. között.
ha bejelentenek vmi eszkozvasarlast rv-t, kotveny barmit, az kicsit hiteltelen lesz sztem
hisz mar vege a recessionak tavaly nyaron..............
Ugyan ott van csak "Aranyláznak" hívják és csak arannyal lehet kereskedni majd.
Szerintem a FED nem fog semmit letenni ma az asztalra, csak megint homályosan célozgat majd a jövőbeni esetleges lépésekre. Szóval nem lesz pénzpumpa. Valószínű, hogy a dollár ezután el kezd erősödni, és a jen is, de nagyon, ezért várható lesz megint egy BoJ intervenció.
The Euro stormed back higher again today after an auction of Irish bonds went off without any apparent hitches. Some of the Euro weakness in recent session seemed centered on rumors and facts surrounding Ireland's attempts to shore up its finances. These auctions are not at all an expression of the free market since the primary dealers in these auctions know that they can swoop in and buy the debt with the implicit backing of the ECB, which is an active backer of all sovereign debt in the EuroZone, so it's a bit surprising that the market is not seeing through this charade. The far less robust bid to cover ratio for the longer term 8-year bonds, however, does suggest that banks are a bit cautious about projecting the ECB's willingness to back debt too far into the future.
Az mi? Link van?
Kistoppolódtam 0-ban...bizonytalan vagyok még a short helyességében...és a longéban is! :)
Morning Adviser Americas 9/21/2010 11:29:00 AM
Eire Auction Aids Euro
By Geoffrey Yu
A successful Irish bond auction sparked a broad euro rally in the Europe Tuesday. Activity elsewhere was muted ahead of the FOMC meeting. EURUSD traded 1.3150-1.3059, USDJPY 85.77-85.28 and EURGBP 84.68-83.90. Gold remained firm, consolidating recent gains in a $1274.78-1282.45 range, with sentiment buoyed by speculation of further quantitative easing from the Fed later today. Our US economists do not expect Fed QE2 to set sail at this juncture, as the medium-term outlook has deteriorated enough to warrant such a change. They also expect little material change to the statement language describing the current conditions or the outlook. On the growth outlook, however, our US economists note that Fed officials may alter the phrase that near-term growth will be "more modest...than had been anticipated" in order to avoid implying a further downgrade in their assessment. If no further quantitative easing is announced, the US dollar should be supported as it has been dampened by expectations of further quantitative easing in recent weeks.
Research Spotlight "Australia's Appreciation Edge" UBS Global Investment Strategy
Not all countries are trying to depreciate their way to growth. The RBA has noted more than once in the past week that the next phase of Australia's mining boom will leave the economy with little spare capacity over the coming year. A rising Australian dollar will tighten monetary conditions, reduce AUD returns of Australian miners and increase the purchasing power of typically more leveraged consumers in non-resource-rich states, while also placing some downward pressure on inflation. Please see the "Australia's Appreciation Edge" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15
Peripheral spreads tightened, following a successful Irish auction, as limited supply and domestic demand ensured it ran smoothly. The Spanish and Greek auctions were also well received. Portuguese 10y spreads fell around 6 bps, while secondary market buying in the run up to the Irish auction also helped events. The Euro reached a 2-month high versus sterling in the run-up to this, up 0.6% on the day as real-money accounts followed consensus of a solid auction. There now appears to be an emerging pattern of successful peripheral auctions and sell-offs in between.
In an attempt to calm the market pre-auction, Irish Prime Minister Cowen and Finance Minister Lenihan yesterday held a press conference in which Cowen said that he had the full support of his colleagues and Lenihan said bond markets are not influenced by minor political disputes.
The ECB announced that ?323 mn (prev. ?237 mn) in sovereign bond purchases settled last week. ECB activity in the sovereign bond space is clearly trending higher and yet bond spreads of Portugal and Ireland continue to rise steadily.
AUD Targets : AUDUSD 1m 0.90, 3m 0.85
The minutes of the RBA's Sept. 7 meeting echoed the hawkish sentiments expressed yesterday by RBA Governor Stevens. Our Australian economics team notes that the key phrase "&higher interest rates would be required, at some point, to ensure that inflation remained consistent with the medium-term target" represents a clear escalation of hawkishness relative to the August meeting minutes. Our economists expect another 25bp hike either at the October or the November meetings, with a greater probability of a move in October.
CAD Targets : USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.02
Canada's August CPI reading is due. July CPI showed a jump in the headline due to provincial tax changes. The August reading is expected to be more subdued and the focus will be on the core CPI read relative to the BoC's forecast. Our economists expect core CPI to tick up +0.1% m/m, leaving the year-on-year rate unchanged at +1.6%.
We remain long USDCAD at 1.0260 as a trade recommendation, targeting a rise to 1.0650 with a stop at 1.0050.
GBP Targets : GBPUSD 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35
Public borrowing figures were released in the UK, sporting record numbers of ?15.302bn public sector net borrowing, as higher inflation increased interest payments on index-linked gilts. Even though some of the upward EURGBP movement can be attributed to this, the bond markets were fairly unmoved by the figures, as the yearly borrowing figures seem set to fall broadly in-line.
CHF Targets : USDCHF 1m 1.02, 3m 1.13
Switzerland's trade balance fell to CHF0.57 bn in August, as real exports declined by 1.4% m/m. However, the annualized figure was impressive at 8.6% y/y, despite the strong CHF. Money supply figures were also released, with M0 falling well below consensus at 17%, while M3 beat estimates, increasing by 6.6%. The result may raise questions about the scale of credit growth in Switzerland and whether the SNB is being too dovish.
FX Technicals
EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2919 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY NEUTRAL Pullback from 85.93 eyes 85.20 support with scope for 84.05 next. GBPUSD BULLISH Model is bullish; while support at 1.5297 holds, expect gains to target 1.5729 ahead of 1.5999 USDCHF BEARISH Move below 0.9933/18 would open up the way towards 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0183 ahead of 1.0392 AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential held below 0.9500 ahead of 0.9850. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196. USDCAD NEUTRAL Momentum is slowing; while support holds at 1.0216, resistance comes in at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery found resistance at 1.3391 ahead of 1.3482 retracement level. Near-term support comes in at 1.2991 EURGBP NEUTRAL Sustained break of 0.8532 would trigger positive trend. 0.8311 marks the near-term support ahead of 0.8142 EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive tone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
en euro shorton gondolkozok, csak egy a baj jonnek az adatok
es azok menetrend szerint "jok"! lesznek
csak tudnam mar mikor lesz vege ennek piti adat kozmetikazasnak?
unalmas, es idegesito
A gold-on is indulsz?
Az eurusd neki futhat a 33-nak még egyszer,de 35-ről várnám a fordulót. A 200napos körül ólálkodik. Holnapra vissza eshetne egy kicsit,de lehet,hogy már a napvégén megteszi. A short szerintem is jó választás,de talán csak rövidtávra.
Mindjárt jönnek a kanadai makrók, utána USA.
11:00 Consumer Price Index MoM AUG - - 0.50%
11:00 Consumer Price Index YoY AUG - - 1.80%
11:00 Bank Canada CPI Core MoM AUG - - -0.10%
11:00 Bank Canada CPI Core YoY AUG - - 1.60%
12:30 Housing Starts AUG 550K 546K
12:30 Housing Starts MOM% AUG 0.70% 1.70%
12:30 Building Permits AUG 560K 565K
12:30 Building Permits MOM% AUG 0.20% -3.10%
13:00 Fed's Open Market Committee Meets on Interest Rates, Economy 21-Sep
18:15 FOMC Rate Decision 21-Sep 0.25% 0.25%
20:30 API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 17-Sep - - 3333K
20:30 API U.S. Gasoline Inventories 17-Sep - - -963K
20:30 API U.S. Distillate Inventory 17-Sep - - -1524K
20:30 API Cushing Crude OK Inventory 17-Sep - - -76K
21:00 ABC Consumer Confidence 19-Sep - - -43
Ireland Sells 1.5 Billion Euros in Debt as Borrowing Costs Rise
Hali! Szasztok!
Thx! A harmadik hely a Tiéd! GRAT! :)
Én beshortoltam eurusd-t 1.3147-en, de nem hiszek benne, így szűk a stop...
