varhato volt, ha kint euforia van az ezzel jar.
sztem 200 as megfogja 1,3220 korul
viszont kabelt adjak szerencsemre
font/chf es eu/chf shortjaim meg tartjak magukat font/jen-t is tartom 1enlore
varhato volt, ha kint euforia van az ezzel jar.
sztem 200 as megfogja 1,3220 korul
viszont kabelt adjak szerencsemre
font/chf es eu/chf shortjaim meg tartjak magukat font/jen-t is tartom 1enlore
Szerintem lassan kifullad az euró emelkedés. Csak azt nem tudom, hogy azok szerint is, akik veszik.
Szia! Bocs,hogy ide írok! Gratulálok a második helyhez. Pedig már azt hittem lecsúszol a dobogóról.
Bocs az off-ért!
Morning Adviser Europe 9/21/2010 5:55:00 AM
Markets Look To FOMC
By Gareth Berry
It was a relatively quiet Asia trading session as market participants remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting later today. EURUSD traded 1.3051-1.3098, USDJPY 85.49-85.80. Gold remains firm but failed to make yet another record high, and is currently trading at $1278.34/oz. Although the prospect of further quantitative easing has been highlighted for this meeting, our US economists do not believe that the medium-term outlook has deteriorated enough to warrant such a change. They also expect little material change to the statement language describing the current conditions or the outlook. On the growth outlook, however, our US economists note that Fed officials may alter the phrase that near-term growth will be "more modest...than had been anticipated" in order to avoid implying a further downgrade in their assessment. If no further quantitative easing is announced, the US dollar should be supported as it has been dampened by expectations of further quantitative easing in recent weeks.
Key Events
21 September 2010 Source: UBS Global Economics Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual Switzerland 06:15 Trade Balance (Aug) CHF bn n/a 2.89 n/a Switzerland 07:00 SNB Publishes Monthly Bulletins Canada 11:00 CPI (Aug) y-o-y 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% Canada 11:00 Bank Canada CPI Core (Aug) m-o-m n/a -0.10% 0.10% Canada 11:00 Bank Canada CPI Core (Aug) y-o-y 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% United States 12:30 Housing Starts (Aug) m-o-m 0.00% 1.70% 0.70% United States 12:30 Building Permits (Aug) m-o-m n/a -4.10% 0.20% United States 18:15 FOMC Rate Decision % 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
Research Spotlight "Australia's Appreciation Edge" UBS Global Investment Strategy Not all countries are trying to depreciate their way to growth. The RBA has noted more than once in the past week that the next phase of Australia's mining boom will leave the economy with little spare capacity over the coming year. A rising Australian dollar will tighten monetary conditions, reduce AUD returns of Australian miners and increase the purchasing power of typically more leveraged consumers in non-resource-rich states, while also placing some downward pressure on inflation. Please see the "Australia's Appreciation Edge" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15 Sovereign bond yields of Eurozone peripherals rose throughout the European session. With an Irish auction due today and one from Portugal tomorrow, some cheapening would have been expected. However, the recent moves have been exacerbated by political uncertainty in Ireland and fears that Portugal may miss its fiscal consolidation targets. In an attempt to calm the market, Irish Prime Minister Cowen and Finance Minister Lenihan held a press conference in which Cowen said that he had the full support of his colleagues and Lenihan said bond markets are not influenced by minor political disputes. The ECB announced that ?323 mn (prev. ?237 mn) in sovereign bond purchases settled last week. ECB activity in the sovereign bond space is clearly trending higher and yet bond spreads of Portugal and Ireland continue to rise steadily.
AUD Targets : AUDUSD 1m 0.90, 3m 0.85 The minutes of the RBA's September 7 meeting echoed the hawkish sentiments expressed yesterday by RBA Governor Stevens. Our Australian economics team notes that the key phrase "&higher interest rates would be required, at some point, to ensure that inflation remained consistent with the medium-term target" represents a clear escalation of hawkishness relative to the August meeting minutes. Our economists expect another 25bp hike either at the October or the November meetings, with a greater probability of a move in October.
CAD Targets : USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.02 Canada's August CPI reading is due. July CPI showed a jump in the headline due to provincial tax changes. The August reading is expected to be more subdued and the focus will be on the core CPI read relative to the BoC's forecast. Our economists expect core CPI to tick up +0.1% m/m, leaving the year-on-year rate unchanged at +1.6%. We remain long USDCAD at 1.0260 as a trade recommendation, targeting a rise to 1.0650 with a stop at 1.0050.
GBP Targets : GBPUSD 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35 M4 money supply fell by 0.2% m/m, leaving the annual rate at a record low of 1.8%. Mortgage-backed approvals in August fell roughly in line with consensus at 45k, an indication that the recent housing market recovery may have been exhausted.
FX Technicals
AUDUSD resistance at 0.9500 EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2919 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY NEUTRAL Momentum is slowing; while resistance is at 85.93, support comes in at 85.20 ahead of 84.05 retracement level. GBPUSD BULLISH While support at 1.5297 holds, expect gains to target 1.5999 with scope for 1.6258 next. USDCHF BEARISH Move below 0.9933/18 would open up the way towards 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0183 ahead of 1.0392 AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential held below 0.9500 ahead of 0.9850. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196. USDCAD NEUTRAL Momentum is slowing; while support holds at 1.0216, resistance comes in at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery found resistance at 1.3391 ahead of 1.3482 retracement level. Near-term support comes in at 1.2991 EURGBP NEUTRAL Trading within 0.8532 and 0.8142 which have now become the key directional triggers. EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive tone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
en adtam egy mini shortot 1282 -n stop 1302 / ritikos de meglatjuk
holnap ha bejelentik a jatekpenz nyomast, v vmi hasonlot ,akkor chf shortjaimnak reszeltek
mondjuk us/cad shortom meg jo lehet,
sztem en addigra a ketes pozikat zarom
Halálra izgulni nem fogod ma sem magad. A holnapi FOMC ülés remélhetőleg visszahozza az életet a devizapiacra.
eddig ugy nez ki chf - t jol elkaptam
Morning Adviser Europe 9/20/2010 5:57:00 AM
RBA Sees Inflation Basing
By Gareth Berry
FX markets were relatively quiet during the Asia session with Japan on holiday. Equities were broadly flat, after a similar finish in New York on Friday. Gold approached but could not breach last week's record high, and is trading at $1280.60/oz at the time of writing. The dollar made no further progress against the euro despite the re-emergence of European sovereign risk concerns on Friday. EURUSD traded 1.3035-1.3084, and USDJPY 85.64-85.83. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 66.6 in early September (cons 70.0) from 68.9 in August. Our US economists note that the entire decline in the index reflected weaker sentiment among respondents with income greater than $75,000. By contrast, sentiment among individuals with income below $75,000 improved. The decline in sentiment among "upper" income respondents likely reflects concern that their taxes could be rising in 2011. Headline CPI was in line with expectations but core prices were slightly softer than expected at 0.0% m/m (cons. +0.1%, prev. +0.1%). Our US economics team expects core CPI inflation to hold at about a +1% y/y pace through to the end of this year, rising to +1.3% y/y by end-2011. The FOMC's latest policy decision is due on Tuesday, and our US economists believe the economic outlook has not deteriorated enough to warrant any additional monetary easing at the meeting.
EUR
Targets : EURUSD 1m 1.28, 3m 1.15 Sovereign bond yields of Ireland and Portugal rose sharply on Friday, after a headline in an Irish newspaper warned that Ireland was "perilously close" to calling in the IMF. The government described the article as "a local misinterpretation of a research report", and the IMF said it does not foresee its assistance being needed in Ireland. Both ECB Governing Council Members Nowotny and Mersch opined on the future of the ECB's liquidity tenders, a topic that has proven to be a significant driver of the euro in recent weeks. Nowotny noted that some parts of the Eurozone banking system are "addicted" to ECB liquidity, and that the problem should be solved primarily by governments. Mersch said he saw "no need to hold onto full allotment", noting that "short term rates can be very easily controlled via competitive tenders". Reuters, citing a German newspaper, reported that German banks will need to raise ?50 bn in fresh capital to comply with the new Basel III capital proposals due to come into force by 2019.
JPY
Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95 With Japan on holiday, USDJPY was relatively quiet and range bound on Monday, suggesting the BoJ has not been active in FX markets since Wednesday. Speculation is mounting that a bill aimed at incorporating an explicit inflation target into BoJ Law could soon be presented to Japan's Diet. We are sceptical of claims that a change to the Law is imminent on two counts: first, parliamentary time in the immediate future is likely to focus on agreeing the terms of the budget for the coming fiscal year; second, a change to BoJ Law would require the approval of both the upper and lower houses of parliament. With no party holding a majority in the upper house, at the very least this would likely complicate and delay the passage of any such bill. The next parliamentary session is expected to begin in early October.
SEK
Targets : EURSEK 1m 9.35, 3m 9.30 Sweden held a general election over the weekend, with media sources indicating that the ruling coalition has maintained its lead over the opposition but has fallen short of an absolute majority.
AUD
Targets : AUDUSD 1m 0.90, 3m 0.85 RBA Governor Stevens offered a relatively hawkish assessment, noting that. "the fall in inflation over the past two years won't go much further." However, he did acknowledge that the global growth outlook was uncertain and that although global growth will be "reasonable" next year, it would not be as strong as the current year. Stevens also identified three key risks to Australia: a deeper than expected slowdown in China, a US double-dip, and the return of market turmoil.
CAD
Targets : USDCAD 1m 1.02, 3m 1.02 Finance Minister Flaherty said Canada's fiscal stimulus measures would expire as planned in March 2011. We issued a trade recommendation on Friday to buy USDCAD at 1.0260, targeting a rise to 1.0650 with a stop at 1.0050. We expect a return of risk aversion in the short term and note that uncertainty over global growth prospects will likely keep the BoC in a wait-and-see mode for the time being.
FX Technicals
USDJPY 86.70 resistance EURUSD NEUTRAL Need a break above 1.3334 to trigger bullish trend. Support holds at 1.2919 USDJPY NEUTRAL Following the recovery through 85.93, model has turned neutral. Next resistance is at 86.70 ahead of 88.12. Near-term support lies at 85.20. GBPUSD BULLISH Pressure on 1.5731; next resistance lies at 1.5999. Near-term support comes in at 1.5449 ahead of 1.5297 USDCHF BEARISH Clearance of 0.9933/18 would expose 0.9786 next. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential capped at 0.9850. Near-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196. USDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0509 and 1.0108 mark the key near-term directional triggers EURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery clears 1.3345 thus exposing 1.3482 Fibonacci level next but snapback to support at 1.3163 breakout high keeps tone neutral. EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8532 and 0.8142 mark the key directional triggers. EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive tone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 key low *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
ja-ja én sem tudok! de ha visszanézed az €$ mindig ezt csinálja, töri a trendet és még egy kanóccal visszanéz bele!
hát szépen kiszedtek, ezt a 90%os gyakoriságot még nem figyeltem meg, de megpróbálom akkor a stopot 20ma is fölé rakni
persze ilyenkor már rossz visszaszálni mentálisan:S
Ma shortosoké a főszerep. Na majd mindjárt nyitok egy nagy longot 0,01lottal eurchf-be.Mondjuk 1,3150-ről :D
chf mar megkezdte az iranyt vagy csak robotok alltak egy iranyba
Erről beszéltem.....
Ha helyes az elképzelésem ez a hét shortgyilkolászás és halálra szopatás volt, jövő héten jön a pince.
font/chf em vastagszik
es eur/chf et is de jo hogy nem zartam le
