Az eurót megint percesen nyüstölik.
mindenki jol jar, usa, japan, csak europa sziv,
Kicsit körbenéztem és bezártam. Egyrészt az a biztos! Meg amúgy is több,mint 2dollár emelkedés 1nap alatt,ilyen ritkán van. Ha neki indul 95-nek,akkor lesz még beszálló. Eurjpy is szép!
Szóval egy kis visszacsorgást várok 84 aljáig. Aztán elválik,hogy mi lesz.
Szerintem Goldmanék keze is benne volt a dologban. Az euró "rally-val" készítették elő a dolgot. Vasárnap USA kezdte el kitépni az eurót.
Ej,milyen szép reggel lett! usdjpy meglepett egy kicsit! Na,de most zárni kéne vagy itt a fordulat?
Szijjasztok!
Holnap a chf crossokat kell figyelni....ha kamatot emelnek megint erősödni fog.
Morning Adviser Europe 9/15/2010 6:02:00 AM
Japan Intervenes Unilaterally
By Gareth Berry
The dollar rose sharply against the yen this morning, shortly after hitting a new low as the USDCNY midpoint fixed lower for a fifth successive day. Finance Minister Noda soon confirmed that Japan had intervened in the FX market, its first such move since Q1 2004. USDJPY rapidly jumped a big figure and has continued to rise amid wire reports of continued but intermittent intervention. Noda said that he could not overlook the yen's recent rise, and had asked the BoJ to intervene at 0130 GMT. He added that the intervention was a solo effort by Japan and was not internationally coordinated, but said he was communicating with overseas authorities. The Fed and the US Treasury declined to comment. EURUSD traded 1.2955-1.3028, USDJPY 82.88-85.14. Although the overnight intervention should put a short term floor under USDJPY, we expect the pair to remain heavy over the medium term as the market continues to worry about the possibility of further QE by the Fed. These fears resurfaced yesterday, leading to broad dollar weakness, despite slightly stronger US retail sales data. We do not think the Fed will announce anything imminently as the data has not been weak enough to argue for further easing and some officials are pointing to fiscal stimulus as a better policy response. Despite the stronger retail sales, there were still some signs of a hesitant consumer as larger ticket items were softer. Even so, real consumer spending (including services) appears to be accelerating and our economists estimate that it is rising at a 2.2% annual rate so far in Q3, up from the 1.9% pace in H1. Upcoming US data releases include industrial production and capacity utilization.
Key Events 15 September 2010 Source: UBS Global Economics Country GMT Release/Event Frequency UBS Prev/Revised Consensus Actual UK 08:30 ILO Unemployment Rate (July) 3mths 7.80% 7.80% 7.80% Euro Area 09:00 Euro-Zone CPI - Core (Aug) y-o-y 0.93% 1.00% 0.90% Switzerland 09:00 ZEW Survey (Expectations) (Sep) index n/a 9.1 n/a UK 10:30 BoE's Mervyn King Speaks United States 13:15 Industrial Production (Aug) m-o-m 0.00% 1.00% 0.20% United States 13:15 Capacity Utilization (Aug) m-o-m 74.90% 74.80% 75.00% New Zealand 21:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate % 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Research Spotlight "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" UBS G10 FX Strategy Recent gains in the yuan have raised eyebrows, not least due to Beijing's acquiescence in a stronger currency. More often than not moves in USDCNY are considered gestural. With event risk rising rapidly, Washington and Beijing are probably trying hard to prevent growing acrimony in economic relations. However, if such efforts go awry, markets will not respond positively; selling of USDJPY and a general risk unwind are the likeliest reaction. We outline the key events over the next six weeks. Please see the "USDCNY Event Risk Rising" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 The German ZEW survey surprised sharply to the downside with the sentiment survey registering a negative print of -4.3. The current situation survey however was much stronger than expected at 59.9. Our economists note that the ZEW is not a very reliable leading indicator, but the figures are consistent with the view that Q3 will remain strong, but activity will falter afterwards. Eurozone industrial production was a little softer at 7.1% y/y. Up next is Eurozone CPI, with no change expected in the y/y reading.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85, 3m 95 Japan has intervened unilaterally in the FX market for the first time since Q1 2004. Wires reports quoted unnamed market sources estimating that between ?200 bn and ?300 bn had been sold. An unnamed senior MoF source indicated that this could be an extended campaign of intervention, depending on how the market responds. Finance Minister Noda did not indicate a particular level in USDJPY at which further interventions might be conducted, but Chief Cabinet Secretary Sengoku said it was his understanding that USDJPY 82.00 was the line of defense. So far, there has been no official comment on whether the intervention is sterilised, but local newswires reported that the BoJ would leave the intervention unsterilized. If today's FX action is part of a campaign of intervention, this could put a floor under USDJPY in the 80-85 area. We still think USDJPY should stay heavy as fears of further Fed QE persist.
NZD Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70 We do not expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR, particularly as the recent earthquake will likely dampen near-term growth prospects. The forecasts in the MPS will be examined for the extent of downward revisions to near-term growth and inflation, especially following the recent comments by the Treasury on the impact to growth. The policy assessment will also be scrutinised for the bank's views on the impact of recent troubles in the domestic banking system.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500 Sterling weakened on the accelerating decline in UK house prices according to the RICS house balance for August before rebounding in the broader dollar sell-off. The RICS data was -32% versus consensus -12%.In other data, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.1%y.y, but monthly sequential inflation was again higher than expected at 0.5%. Martin Weale, in his testimony, brushed off any suggestion that there was scope for changing in the inflation target, but implicitly acknowledged that inflationary pressures were somewhat stronger than expected, calling the OBR's 4% output gap estimate "plausible". Labour data is due and BoE Governor King addresses the Trades Union Congress. This marks the second occasion where a BoE governor speaks at the annual Trades Union Congress and following BoE policymaker Weale's comments, King's speech and Q&A should be in focus.
FX Technicals
USDJPY resistance at 85.91 EURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2588 mark the key near-term directional triggers. USDJPY BEARISH Sudden recovery through 84.43 exposes 85.91 and 86.70. Overall outlook is bearish with support at 82.88 intraday low. GBPUSD NEUTRAL 1.5731 and 1.5297 mark the near-term directional triggers. USDCHF BEARISH Focus on 0.9918 with next support at 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH Expect the gains to extend towards 0.9563. Near-term support is at 0.9309. USDCAD BEARISH Following the break of 1.0248, model has bearish. Next support at 1.0108 with resistance at 1.0395 ahead of 1.0673 EURCHF BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3924 found support at 1.2766; break of the level would expose 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP NEUTRAL Pressure on 0.8390; a break would expose 0.8532. Move below 0.8252 and 0.8142 next required to reinstate the bearish tone. EURJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 111.19 holds, recovery is seen as a correction. Support at 107.73 ahead of 105.44 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
varjuk meg az estet,
meg konnyen eroskodnek, ures piacon, mad 10 utan meg du meglatjuk
önzőek:), viszont nekem ilyen napom is régen volt, shortjaim és a longjaim is jó irányba mentek:)
Nekem csak az a problémám vele, hogy kimaradtam belőle, valamint az, hogy egyoldalúan csinálták, egyeztetés nélkül (USA, EU), ezért kétséges a folyamat hathatóssága. Szóval most nem tudom, hogy bírják e egyedül tovább vinni, vagy az EU, és USA rájuk önti újra a dollárt és eurót.
ez egy kitervelt dolog volt. Az első nagy gyertya előtt még lenyúlt a stoppokért és ennyi (15p) ha én beszálltam volna tuti kistoppolódtam volna. Tudták jól, hogy mindenki venni akar, de nem sokaknak adták meg ezt az örömöt. Talán te írtad, de lehet, hogy vki más, hogy hajnalban fogják csinálni, amikor európa alszik. És tessék.
Pedig az EURUSD t jol meg lépted, mivan az opcioddal kifutott?
remelem a piac gyoz,
meg jo hogy eur/usd meg kabel karpotolt
kerdes mi lesz a chf el, es mit lepnek a hedge fundok, meg az alapok
volt par likvidalas hajnalban gondolom (meg tegnap du is)
Tegnap egész este viszketett a kezem a longra, amikor 83 alatt volt, de nem léptem meg. Hinnem kellett volna az ösztönömnek, már nem először.
Alvás közben pénzt keresni a legjobb dolog ,és a legnyugodtab.
Ha egyoldalú volt, akkor még leküldik békába. A Bloomberg szerint az volt. Egyébként krva. trükkösek voltak. Kan elhitette, ha győz, akkor toleránsabb lesz a beavatkozás kérdésében. Tényleg az volt, egy nagy cumi erejéig.:DD
osszes jenem ugrott nemi bukoval
ez szivas