Mert összesen menniy kellhet hozzá? Egy tonna?
:DDD
Mert összesen menniy kellhet hozzá? Egy tonna?
:DDD
Indiában az esküvői szezon is segítheti az arany szárnyalását!
Behozza a lemaradását az arannyal szemben. Ráadásul Kína csökkentette 72%-al a nemesfém-kivitelét.
Morning Adviser Americas 9/7/2010 11:12:00 AM
EU Bond Spreads Widen
By Manuel Oliveri
Renewed worries about the European banking sector kept risk sentiment muted in European hours. Among other factors, an article in the WSJ weighed on sentiment, as it pointed to flaws in the design of the European bank stress tests, and it was claimed that the sovereign debt holdings of some banks may have been understated as a result. Ireland vs. Germany and Portugal vs. Germany bond yield spreads reached new record wides.
Most European stock market indices are trading in the red; the Eurostoxx50 down by 1.2%. EURUSD traded 1.2737-1.2877 and USDJPY 83.73-84.27.
Research Spotlight "Low Country Blues" UBS G10 FX Strategy
Belgian and Dutch bonds have underperformed over the past few sessions; while improved risk appetite has pushed yields up globally, the jumps recorded in the Low Countries do not appear commensurate with their risk preferences. Politics are to blame, with coalition talks in both countries collapsing recently. With political discord particularly unwelcome at a time when governments want to lower borrowing costs, investors will increasingly need to watch political risks in the Eurozone. Please see the "Low Country Blues" Talking Points on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR, CHF Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500
At -2.25 (cons. 0.5%, prev. 3.2%) German industrial orders for July came in well below expectations. In particular falling foreign demand drove industrial activity lower. According to the German Economy Ministry in particular below average volume of big orders dampened the overall result.
EU Commission President Barroso said, that the recovery in the European Union is gathering pace, and that growth in 2010 will be higher than initially forecasted. He also added that the next twelve months must be used in order to accelerate structural and other reforms. EU Commissioner Rehn highlighted that the Eurozone is not out of the woods yet. Yesterday, ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that the ECB will wait until December before discussing how to implement the next phase of the ECB's exit strategy. Nowotny was only referring to how ECB liquidity operations could be further normalised, and was not suggesting that policy rate hikes might be on the agenda.
According to press reports, discussions are continuing between the Irish Finance Ministry and the EU Commission over how best to wind down key parts of the Irish banking system that have been nationalized. A decision is expected over the coming weeks.
On the back of renewed worries with respect to the European banking sector, government bond yield spreads continued to widen. In particular Irish-German and Portuguese-German bond yield spreads reached new record highs. Renewed worries were driven by a press report suggesting that the bank stress test was based on underestimated debt holdings. In addition Portuguese banks' borrowing from the ECB slowed in August but still edged up to a new record high.
In Switzerland, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for August came in slightly higher than expected at 3.8% (cons. 3.7%).
Altogether investors' focus seems to shift back to structural problems in the Eurozone. Under such conditions additional downside is likely.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 8500, 3m 95.00
As expected, the BoJ decided to keep monetary policy unchanged after today's policy meeting. Attention will now focus on Governor Shirakawa's post-meeting press conference later today, and in particular whether he will keep the door open to further monetary easing. Any comments suggesting his opposition to accelerated JGB purchases is beginning to wane would likely be seen as yen-negative.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa said, that he will not rule out any policy options and that a strong JPY may prompt firms to hold off capital expenditures. Importantly, he also added that monetary authorities cannot control FX rates.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.90, 3m 0.85
In line with market consensus, the RBA decided to keep monetary policy unchanged at its latest policy decision today. Our Australia economics team noted that the RBA retains its positive medium term view on Australia, and they see room for one more 25bp hike before year-end, and for the cash rate to reach 5.5% by mid-2011.
Prime Minister Gillard won a thin parliamentary majority, and now she plans to have a government in place by early next week. As a consequence and among other plans a 30% mining tax will likely get implemented, keeping sentiment and hence AUD under pressure.
NOK Targets: EURNOK 1m 7.80, 3m 7.60
At 0.1% (cons. -0.5%, prev. 3.3%) manufacturing output in July was stronger than expected. As such latest data confirms a trend of improving manufacturing activity, suggesting that growth conditions continue to strengthen.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35
At 1.0% y/y (prev. 0.5%) BRC retail sales rose in august, but retail sales growth remains well below a long run average of 2.6%. According to our economists CBI distributive tades and BoE agents score paints a more buoyant picture.
FX Technicals
EURUSD NEUTRAL Recovery held below 1.2933 thus bringing our focus back on 1.2588. Break of the level would expose next support lying at 1.2434 Fibonacci level. USDJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure eyes 83.60, move below the level would open 79.75 key support. Short-term resistance is defined at 85.91 GBPUSD BEARISH Stalled above 1.5324; break here would expose 1.5125. Near-term resistance lies at 1.5584 ahead of 1.5742 USDCHF BEARISH Momentum is negative; expect extension of bearish trend towards 0.9918 ahead of 0.9786. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0265 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH The gains are expected to move towards 0.9222 with scope for 0.9389 next. Only a move below 0.8856 would hurt the positive tone. USDCAD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral with 1.0680 and 1.0108 defining the next bull and bear trigger respectively. EURCHF BEARISH Focus is back on 1.2852 trend low with next support below the level lying at 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8532 and 0.8142 define the key near-term directional triggers EURJPY NEUTRAL While resistance is at 111.19, break of 105.44 would expose 100.00, psychological round number support level.
messziről lefelé áll a zászló!
http://www.imagebam.com/image/ac776696707847
még simán van 3-4 napja a letörésre :)
egyenlőre nincs semmilyen céláram
Pedig még benne van egy lefelé kör, csak a szívatás végett.:)
nekem még megvan a shortom 1,2876-ról, de amint csinál m15ön egy emelkedő csúcs és emelkedő völgy kombot zárom és nyitok rá longot, mivel emelkedő csatorna alja + támasz van itt, így nem látom okát a további shortra:)
jen elkaptak, rendesen
mikor a 1,3815-os legmagasabb bekerű pakkot éjjel dobta a stop 1,3075-től lefelé?
Az volt a minimum akkor. Na akkor nem vettem vissza, pedig 1 hónap múlva nyerő lett volna. És a rolloverje is plusz.
Nem nem számoltam ki. A végeredmény az minusz, de a tüskék jó része megvolt, tehát nem vészes....
Ezt most egy évre vettem....
mint általában :)
Kiszámoltad már, hogy mennyit hagytál ebbe a genyóban?
elvileg. De chfnél minden megtörténhet, meg annak az ellenkezője is...
lett 90-en eurchf longom. Majd pár nap múlva megmondom, hogy örülök neki vagy sem...
EURUSD az ékből letört, persze hajnalban, az ék elsődleges célára teljesült /csatorna építés/ most is ott szenved
