Megindulhatna végre erővel 115 fölé első körben.
US GDP Preview: unchanged pace
Mads Koefoed, Market Strategist, Saxo Bank
Tomorrow's GDP report is expected to show that the economy grew 2.6% QoQ annualized in the second quarter; driven by consumer spending and changes to inventories.
No beléptem, stop 0-ban, lássuk mire vagyunk képesek:))
:))
US GDP Preview: unchanged pace
Tomorrow’s US GDP report will show that the economy grew 2.6% quarter-on-quarter annualized aided
by consumption growth of 2.6%. But while the numbers are not too shabby relative to the historical
trend, given the amount of stimuli and with the economy about the shift down in gears it is certainly not
impressive either.
Consumer spending will be the main driver of economic growth in the second quarter as was the case in
the first where it contributed 2.1%-points. While shopping bags have certainly not been filled to the brim
in the second quarter, it is still an improvement over the first quarter. Government consumption,
however, is expected to subtract from overall GDP growth. State and locals are in the midst of a serious
funding crisis and it was not until recently that tax receipts started to increase. However, tax revenues
are still much below spending and hence the belt needs to be tightened even more. This cost-cutting is
spilling over into the labour market where we expect employment at the state and local level to
continue to contract.
Inventory changes have been the most important driver of GDP growth since the trough a year ago. In
fact, if you subtract the contribution from inventories final sales have only grown 1.4% during the last
year. Looking ahead we expect changes to inventories to be less influential as sales have not picked up
enough to allow for large-scale restocking. Most of the recent manufacturing data certainly points to a
slowdown, which will in turn affect inventories. However, when viewing the second quarter separately,
we expect another sizeable contribution from changes to inventories. Investment is also expected to pick
up steam. While yesterday’s durable goods orders report was poor on the face of it, what matters for
GDP is non-defense capital goods shipments. And these were not poor; following annualized growth of
3.2% in 1Q, they increased by 12.5% in 2Q, which should provide a welcome boost to non-residential
investment.
The trade balance is beginning to look more and more like its former self as it continues downward. The
deficit is now -$42bn. The global recovery has led to a surge in foreign trade and both imports and
exports have risen markedly in the US since mid-2009. Imports have outgrown exports, which explain the
increasing trade deficit. This will impact GDP negatively.
We expect the GDP report to show that the economy in the second quarter performed very similarly to
the first quarter and we forecast a growth rate of 2.6% on an annual basis. We are more concerned about
the second half of 2010 where we expect much lower growth in the US.
US GDP (QoQ, annualized) Saxo Bank
Low Median High
Gros s Domes tic Product (GDP) 2.6% 1.0% 2.5% 4.0%
Personal Consumption Expendi tures (PCE) 2.6% 2.0% 2.4% 3.2%
GDP Price Index 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5%
PCE Core Price Index 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.4%
Consensus
Macro Research
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Csak óvatosan nyitok, mert még a végén bakot lövök, azt meg nem szereted:))
Én már longban vagyok tegnap óta, de öl az ideg a likviditás hiány miatt. "Fillerekkel" rakják ide-oda.
Az EurJpy mintha nagy dobásra készülne, jó lesz résen lenni long oldalon, ha nem fals a sávból kitörés, komoly potenciál mutatkozik. Mindenesetre részemről figyelem:))
Nem. Certiben van. A kiütési ár 14.00. A tőke 1 %-a van benne.
Nem 1160 körül van egy támasza neki? 1175 környékén meg ellenállás.
sikerult donteni? :)
csak azert kerdezem mert engem is piszkal az ezust, trendvonal alljan van, innen pattanhatna. masfelol viszont arany szepen lepisilt a tamasza ala...
Ma vagy holnap döntenem kell. Nem leszek, certiben meg nincs stop.
Mindig ez a kishitűség, ha jól látom akkor most azért legalább 1 ft nyerő van:))
Határon táncolunk, meglátjuk merre megy 17.2 vagy 18:))
alakul:)
Bakiba szolgálati közlemény!!!
Ma 14:47-kor vettem ezust longot (certiben előre beiírtam, fogalmam se volt, csak saccperkábé) az alapinstumentum szintjéről.
Automatán megvette.
Szóval innen ezüstben full tőke short, mert még 1 ft-os se nyertem vele soha...
Ez valahol 1750 és 1735 között lehetett....
Nem,nem, opciós nap van, holnap meglátjuk, de esélyes:))
