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EUR: ECB policy decision due The ECB announces their latest policy decision today. Our European economists expect no change to the refi rate, but the focus will lie squarely on the post-announcement ECB press conference. ECB president Trichet can be expected to field questions ranging from the progress of the ECB's government bond purchasing facility, to developments in Greece, to whether the covered bond purchasing facility will be closed as planned at the end of June. Questions are also likely on how the ECB plans to manage liquidity issues surrounding the expiry on July 1 of the ECB's first 12 month tender. In June 2009, this tender saw EUR 442 bn injected into the banking system. Both Portugal's and Germany's bond auctions passed without incident. Nevertheless, the cost of borrowing for at-risk countries in the Eurozone continues to rise. Today, Spain is due to issue up to EUR 4bn of notes maturing in Oct-2013. We remain bearish on the euro and forecast EURUSD at 1.15 in 3 months. We remain long a 6-month EURUSD put spread as a trade recommendation from May 19 with strikes at 1.1000 and 1.0000.