Re: nincs cím

UBS

CHF: Danthine makes a splash Swiss trade figures were weaker than expected at CHF1.29bln (cons. 2.2bln) as imports jumped. However industrial production was stronger at 6.4%. SNB Policy Board Member Danthine made his first ever speech in his capacity as an SNB member today and the impact was immediate. He noted that Swiss consumers need to prepare now for a return to higher rates and market-set FX-rates. This was yet another indication that the SNB is now ready to loosen its grip on intervention. However, later he backtracked and said that the SNB will maintain an expansionary monetary policy and counter excessive FX gains. EURCHF has declined precipitously in recent weeks as the market priced in shift in the SNB's strategy. At present the SNB is willing to tolerate the decline in the cross and this suggests that it is accepting the market's interpretation of tighter policy up ahead. We have lowered our EURCHF forecasts to 1.45 in the short-term and further downside is possible if the EUR's own problems persist while the SNB gradually moves forward with its own exit. We now expect the Swiss economy to expand by 2.5% in 2011 vs. 2.0% previously, reflecting strong growth despite headwinds from surrounding economies.