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SanguisFOMC - any new twists in rhetoric on tap?
We have no idea what the FOMC, if anything, has up its sleeve for today’s monetary policy statement. Considering that the Fed has no idea how the market will survive its pulling away from the massive mortgage buying operations over the next few months, it will likely offer no hints on its plan for the trajectory of rates. A Reuters headline sums it up nicely “Fed will nod, but not bow, to signs of recovery.” And really, the signs of the recovery are still rather tepid, especially in the light of the unprecedented stimulus and monetary flooding of the economy over the last 15 months. The Fed is unlikely to alter language significantly and is likely to keep the phrase indicating that “[various conditions] are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Whatever the FOMC comes up with today, it feels like it is an “either/or” kind of day for the greenback after we approached very critical resistance levels for the USD across the board yesterday. Either the market powers through today or takes a significant step back to think things through.