Ázsia még szép, hogy ilyenkor már alszik :)
Viszont ha a chatokat megnézed, mostanában nagyobb elmozdulás csak az ő nyitva tartásuk alatt van, kivéve mikor nem :)
Ázsia még szép, hogy ilyenkor már alszik :)
Viszont ha a chatokat megnézed, mostanában nagyobb elmozdulás csak az ő nyitva tartásuk alatt van, kivéve mikor nem :)
hat nem tudom de ennel sztem meg nyaron is nagyobb likvid volt
alszik itt, city, frankfurt azsia mindki
Meddig alszanak még vajon a City-ben? Dög unalom továbbra is.
shortolom 2825 rol kis lot 100 pip stop 2925, nem tudok mas szintet tenni ami ne szedenek ki
us/jen rol mit gondolsz? en meg levarom mindig, mondjuk most megalt az eses
nem vagy hulye es en sem de ezeknel latod nem lehet tudni......
aud/usd longom miatt aggodom, igaz mar eleg szep, de a rest maga mogott hagyta, felek eszebe jut hogy be kellene tolteni......hm..
Lehet, hogy én vagyok a hülye, de nem látom okát, hogy emelkedjen.
en meg varok 10 ig a shortal hatha addig megindul vmerre, ha nem akkor short, csak messze van a stop /1.2922
nekem longom van benne. Stop 3 pip pluszban.
Akkor én is a hülyék közé tartozom... (előre bevitt pár napos order...) :D
Én is arra válaszoltam. Csak mellékesen jegyeztem a likviditás hiányát.
Most nem egyre gondoltunk. Én a Baseli irányelvekre vs banki mérlegszépítési technikákra.
Te meg valszeg a pénzpiacra.
Kiváncsi lennék pl az opt eredményére az új irányelvek bevezetése után... :DD
Morning Adviser Europe 9/13/2010 6:13:00 AM
Basel Buoys Sentiment
By Gareth Berry
Risk appetite steadily improved during the Asia session after the Basel III negotiations concluded over the weekend, and produced a set of proposals that appear to be slightly less strict than media speculation had suggested. The timeline for full implementation has also been extended slightly. Better economic data out of China gave sentiment a lift as well. EURUSD traded 1.2673-1.2808, and USDJPY 84.07-84.43. As expected, minimum capital requirements have been raised, with the core Tier-1 capital ratio effectively lifted to 7%. Banks will be permitted to allow levels to fall to 4.5%, but doing so will trigger operational restrictions. The new rules will be phased in from January 2013 to January 2019. ECB President Trichet described the agreement as "a fundamental strengthening of global capital standards" while US regulators said it was a "significant step forward" in reducing the incidence and severity of future financial crises. China economic data for August was broadly stronger than consensus expectations, although the key CPI print was in line at +3.5% y/y (prev. +3.3% y/y). New yuan loans rose by RMB545.2 bn, more than the RMB500 bn consensus forecast. Industrial activity and retail sales were slightly stronger, at +13.9% y/y (cons. +13.0%, prev. +13.4%) and +18.4% y/y (cons. +18.0%, prev. +17.9%) respectively. Our China economist believes that the possibility of a rate hike before year-end should not be ruled out. The monthly budget statement is the only significant US data release scheduled for today.
Research Spotlight "Dim Growth Discounted" UBS Global Investment Strategy Lower assumptions for trend growth imply lower relative returns for risk assets such as equities and commodities. But quantifying the impact of lower growth estimates and bond yields on equity valuations via a discounted cash flow framework, we find that current equity valuations already discount a dim view of longer-term growth. This suggests that there is no significant disconnect between current stock and bond market pricing. We keep our cautious tactical asset allocations. Please see the "Dim Growth Discounted" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 Greece's Prime Minister Papandreou said the government is not even discussing the possibility of debt restructuring, given that any such move would be "catastrophic" for the economy and could lead to the collapse of the domestic banking system. ECB Executive Board Member Bini Smaghi said Greece's debt problem is also Greece's biggest incentive to remain within the Eurozone. He described as "absurd" the idea that Greece could exit the euro noting that, were it to happen, "partial default or restructuring would in that case be unavoidable". The IMF announced it would immediately disburse another ?2.57 bn in bailout loans to Greece on the grounds that, by the end of June, "all quantitative performance criteria" were met and "major structural reforms are ahead of schedule". On Tuesday, Greece is scheduled to auction ?0.9 bn in 6m T-bills. This will be the third time Greece has returned to the market since the EU/IMF bailout was activated. In July, 3m and 6m T-bills were auctioned with some success. However, Tuesday's effort is to be the first auction of Greece's new monthly T-bill issuance program, which should see Greece returning to the market more frequently in future. Elsewhere, today, Italy is aiming to sell up to ?5.5 bn in 2015 and 2040 bonds. Portugal's finance minister Teixeira said he was confident that the fiscal deficit would be cut to 7.3% of GDP this year, and would fall to 2.8% by 2012.
NZD Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70 The NZ Treasury forecast that the Sept 4 earthquake in Christchurch and subsequent tremors would likely shave 0.4% q/q off Q3 GDP. The report predicted that the cost of the recovery effort could reach NZ$4 bn. However, the report also forecast that the rebuilding effort will provide an economic boost in 2011 and 2012. No details have yet been released about whether the earthquake relief fund will be forced to sell some or all of its overseas equities holdings to pay for compensation claims. Overseas holdings were worth approximately NZ$1 bn in June 2009, and their sale could give rise to significant NZD inflows.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.0200, 3m 1.0200 Bank of Canada Governor Carney said that renewed weakness in the US economy could have "important implications for the Canadian outlook", and that the BoC would have to chart a careful course for monetary policy. Jobs data was fairly mixed. Although the economy added 35.8k (cons. 30k, prev. -9.3k) new jobs in August, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 8.1% (cons. 8.0%, prev. 8.0%). An oil pipeline that transports approximately 30% of Canada's oil exports to the US remains closed at the time of writing due to the discovery of a leak late last week. Depending on how long it takes to restart the flow, this has the potential to become a CAD-negative event.
FX Technicals
AUDUSD eyes 0.9389 EURUSD BEARISH Move below 1.2588 is required for the confirmation of bearish trend. Resistance holds at 1.2933 USDJPY BEARISH Trend is bearish; there is little support till 79.75 key level. Short-term resistance is defined at 85.23 GBPUSD BEARISH Currently holds support at 1.5297; a break here would expose 1.5125/15 ahead of 1.4906. Near-term resistance lies at 1.5565 ahead of 1.5731 USDCHF BEARISH Recovery cleared 1.0239 thus exposing 1.0466. Broader focus is still on the downside with initial support lying at 1.0061 ahead of 0.9918 AUDUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure eyes 0.9389; break of the level would favour another run towards 0.9850. Near-term support is at 0.9171 ahead of 0.9055 USDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0673 and 1.0108 define the next bull and bear triggers respectively. EURCHF BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3924 found support at 1.2766; break of the level would expose 1.2626 ahead of 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 0.8390 and 0.8142 mark key near-term directional triggers. 0.8068 defines a key support level. EURJPY BEARISH Focus is maintained on 105.44, next support at 100 psychological level. Resistance is at 111.19 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
