szép, köszi!
200h vissza teszt és mehet a long vétel :)
szép, köszi!
200h vissza teszt és mehet a long vétel :)
Amit már n+1-szer megjósoltak, legutóbb épp a Hindenburg index-szel. Mindig akkor jön a beszakadás, amikor mindenki happy. Ez kitűnő lenne hozzá, bár már én se hiszek benne, de megszokásból megjátszom....
milyen armageddon lesz holnap?
figyeljétek a gbpchf-et mert lehet következő órában ad egy long jelet, ha a csúcs fölé tud zárni
rendes lelkiismeret furdalásom van, hogy tegnap zárattam az aranyadat. Már ha short volt...
A HUF is kapott egy rövidnadrágot a dollár ellenében. Ha holnap jön az Armageddon elég jó lesz, ha nem, lefelé bővítek, októberre beérik.
gab/cad -ot zartam en is 14,28 kor 1,6046 -> 1,5910! nem volt rosz
de nem mertem adat utanig hagyni, mult penteken mar 1* megszivtam
jo par, figyelo lista tovabbra is
elotte fontchf hozott hasonlo jokat
Csak magamat tudom ismételni: GBPCAD, ma is megvolt rajta a 2%. A többiben pedig épp Obi Wan teszi tiszteletét. Egyszer csak észhez térnek....
:)))))
sztem mara ennyit a dev.piacrol
olyanok a képernyőn a chartok mintha elment volna az internet kapcsolat,
Trading
09 September 2010
FX Update: Commodity currencies go ballistic on risk rally
John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank
Positive US trade balance data doesn’t come to the greenback’s aid as the focus on the risk rally continues to press the commodity currencies ever higher. But what will drive the risk rally from these levels?
Norway buys the PIGS
In search of superior yield, it appeared the risk-takers at Norway's enormous pension fund have come up with the idea of investing in Greek and other PIGS sovereign debt in the belief that these countries (or German taxpayers?) will not default on their obligations. It is certainly a brave call and will garner superior yields if the bet pays off, but it also serves as a risk for NOK and ties that currency more closely together with the Euro sovereign debt issue if the bet turns sour (though as a percentage of GDP, etc., the bets are likely not a massive investment). It is interesting that PIGS yields are essentially unchanged from their lofty levels of yesterday despite this news. NOK is a bit firmer against the Euro with a key support a bit lower at 7.85. The Euro has reached a new low relative to an evenly weighted basket of the rest of the G-10.
Australia - Don't worry, buy Aussie....
The don't worry, buy Aussie theme we discussed yesterday remains in high gear with an almost absurdly strong employment report from down under overnight. More than 50k full time jobs were added to the economy, according the report, which would be like 500k or more on a per capita basis for the US. Part time jobs were a -22k draw on the overall +31k reading for the month. The unemployment rate dropped to match the post-crisis low from June, aided by a falling participation rate. Much of the strength in the Australian economy is in the mining sector, and considering evidence that the services and construction sectors of the Australian economy are showing signs of dipping back into recession, it would appear that Australia risks a worsening case of Dutch Disease with its very strong currency and booming mining sector now generating high inflation in wages. A drop off in Chinese demand actually might do the country more good than harm for the longer term. In the mean time, the market is telling us, don't worry, buy Aussie...
Chart: AUDUSD
Will AUDUSD fade in the 0.9200-0.9400 area as it has been doing for almost a year here or will it power through as the market starts to talk up the idea of parity? The recent spate of risk appetite and strong data from Down Under have seen the market price back in +40 bps at the short end of the yield curve (looking for small chance of hike in coming year rather than cut) in support of the recent move higher in Aussie, which is approaching its all time high again vs. a basket of the rest of the G-10 currencies. Certainly, if we move to 1200+ in the US S&P500 and China avoids any hiccups in the coming month or so, it is a real possibility that the pair has a go at breaking through this zone, though our structural, longer term belief that the risk rally is unsustainable...
GBP and Bank of England
The BoE left rates and the asset purchase target unchanged as universally expected today and we have little further news to go on, though there seems to be speculation in the analyst community that the minutes will show that renewed asset purchases are on the table considering the slowdown in some of the recent data and the inevitable slowdown in the pipeline a public spending is sharply curtailed by the government's new austerity plan. The pound was sharply weaker today after a rather odd rally yesterday for which it was tough to find a catalyst. The pound was punished in today's trading by an extraordinarily ugly trade deficit number which came in at a modern low. Let's see if the coming austerity does anything to reverse the worrying trend.
North American data
The data out of the US and Canada today w as rather interesting, with the US trade deficit shrinking sharply again after the much bigger than expected deficit in July. A continuation of the consumption slump, a weaker currency and stronger economies elsewhere should help to work wonders on the US terms of trade in coming months, though there is still the question of the Chinese currency. Risk decided to celebrate that number as well as the lower than expected US weekly initial jobless claims number. Just as we expressed caution at reading too much into the very high 500k claims number a few weeks ago, we also think it is too soon to reach any conclusions about today's relatively low 451k reading because of the seasonality of the jobless numbers. Let's see what the next four weeks of claims brings to get a better picture. In the meantime, the more worrying development was the ISM non-manufacturing employment index dipping back under 50 in August.
Canada's trade number, on the other hand, fell to a new record low rather than improving. The strong Canadian currency is obviously having an effect on trade levels and could quickly get the central bank's attention. Also worthy of attention in Canada were the August housing starts numbers, which are beginning to show a distinct deceleration now rather than just a topping out. The downside risks to the Canadian economy are gathering, hawkish central bank or not. Eventually, the strong currency becomes a self-limiting development as should be the case in an open economy. CAD traders should watch out for the Canadian employment report for August set for release tomorrow.
Obama speech..zzzzzz....
Obama spoke yesterday in Cleveland, outlining his "vision and agenda for the economy". The speech only rehashed the programs and initiatives he has already called for, including the $50 billion in infrastructure spending and a plan to allow businesses to write off all investments through 2011. (An interesting article yesterday discussed how this plan could cause distortions from arbitraging of the rule. When will the government tire of this kind of time-constrained efforts that have gotten the economy nowhere at all to date. ). It is hard to fathom why the president's team was only able to come up with this initiative if they really are interested in making a difference ahead of the November 2 election. If the administration wanted to light a fire under the economy immediately, it should have done something to stimulate end demand rather than investment. A rather apt quote from a small business owner in NPR article sums it up nicely: "At the end of the day, we don't need more equipment right now - we need more customers."
Looking ahead
The US equity market is pounding on the 200-day moving average again ahead of the open today. We thought the rally might have something to do with expectations surrounding a new initiative from the Obama administration that might serve to stimulate the economy, but the infrastructure and small business tax incentives are of insufficient caliber to justify a risk rally of the magnitude we have seen thus far. We'll have to dig deeper in coming days to understand what it is the market thinks it has to celebrate or anticipate at this juncture if this rally continues.
Annyira illikvid, hogy 1-2 fecske is nyarat csinálhat.
itt bármit el lehet képzelni. Talán a minuszos usa nyitást nem:):). A gapből majd kigondolok vmi bölcset, aztán úgyse az lesz:)
Majdnem én is így jártam az usajennel, de beraktam azt a stoppot amit te javasoltál nekem. Ez megmentet. Egész éjjel nyitva volt a pozi, de hajnalban beszakadt, aztán lett amennyi lett. Igazából csak a kamatra lettem volna kíváncsi azért szálltam be. De 1 órával előbb kistoppolt.
de itt vmi nekem is budos...........
jo hogy mindent zartam, rosszat ereztem, minden parban ellenem ment volna piac
most eurusd shortot tervezgetek, es eur/jen, fontjen short vissza
Nálam már eljátszották a szívatást. Kétszer is zárhattam volna nyerőben az EURUSD shortom, most itt ülök benne mínuszban.