Szurkolok neked.
De törte a korábbi támaszát. Könnyen a következőnél találhatja magát.
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6465/272s.png
Inkább GBPUSD shortot kellett volna nyitnom. :(
Szurkolok neked.
De törte a korábbi támaszát. Könnyen a következőnél találhatja magát.
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/6465/272s.png
Inkább GBPUSD shortot kellett volna nyitnom. :(
én meg longot gbpjpy-ben. cél az előző lokális csúcs....
És még mindig nem vagyok képes azt trédelni,amit ide írok. :(
hát igen. Tegnap bevittem az ordert h4 psar metszésre és ma hajnalban s3 közelében zártam....
reggelre érdekes gbp/usdot fogunk látni
a brit adat írtózatosan rossz
Tue
Aug 10 1:01 GBP
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
0.5% 1.2%
1:01 GBP
RICS House Price Balance
-8% 5% 9%
Azt csak dühből írtam,épp shortoltam GBP/USD-t.Abban viszont veled értek egyet,hogy a funda írja a TA-t.Beszállókat TA alapján nézem én is ,de ha a funda nem támogatja akkor mit sem ér!
Mindkettőtök mondandójában van igazság. :-)
hamm....magyaros beszólás sangi...te szoktad pont ezt űldözni....:)...vicc
ne harapd le a fejemet...
nem olvastam vissza semeddig mikor rákérdeztem..
pusztán belenéztem a topikba és inkább kíváncsiságból kérdeztem meg :)))
nem szívügyem a forex..de az árfolyamokat nyilván követem..és persze néha olvaslak titeket is.. :)))
Okos. Ha visszaolvasol Kratya TA-s. Chart alapján dönt. És tőle kérdezel, vársz fundamentális megoldást.
Véleményetek szerint az usd/chf most fordulni kívánkozik és lesz egy kis fel korrekció az eddigi esésből vagy csak játszik itt egy kicsit mielőtt esne tovább?
valami rosszra számítasz a fed kapcsán? vagy inkább túl nagy lesz a vola?
A forgalom hiánya még viheti fel.
UBS
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500
Given that the BoE chose not to adjust monetary policy at last week's meeting, we do not expect to find any major surprises in this week's inflation report. We remain short GBPCHF via a put spread with strikes at 1.6300 and 1.5425.
Morning Adviser Americas 8/9/2010 2:30:00 PM
German Exports Surge
By Gareth Berry
The US dollar was tightly rangebound during quiet European and Asian sessions, after extensive dollar losses were sustained on Friday following weaker-than-expected payrolls data. EURUSD has traded 1.3270-1.3308 and USDJPY 85.27-85.74. Germany's July trade balance came in comfortably ahead of expectations, at EUR14.1 bn (cons. EUR12 bn, prev. EUR9.8 bn), illustrating the degree to which a weaker euro has boosted German exports.
This week, Tuesday's FOMC decision is eagerly anticipated. Although markets have gradually started to price in either a significant alteration to the Fed's policy guidance or additional asset purchases, our US economists see little justification for either, noting that July's economic data was broadly in line with June's. A steady Fed would likely provide some short-term support for the dollar. We remain constructive on the dollar's prospects given that growth differentials between the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK are likely to widen to the dollar's advantage into year-end.
Research Spotlight "Investors Dump The Dollar" UBS G10 FX Strategy
CME positioning data released on Friday showed that investors continue to sell the dollar, while trimming short positions (or adding to longs) in all other currencies we track. We have not seen such a pronounced positional shift away from the USD in a single week since July 2008, a time when consensus opinion felt the worst of the crisis had passed. Commodity currencies remain in demand with long positions in the AUD, CAD and NZD each setting new 12 week highs. Please see the "Investors Dump The Dollar" strategy comment on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500
ECB councillor Orphanides said that the ECB remains sensitive to banks' liquidity needs and will continue to provide funds as needed. He did not say whether this would be delivered via fully-allotted tenders, or whether the ECB would soon return to the pre-crisis system of auctioning a fixed amount of liquidity. However, Orphanides did observe that the risk of the Eurozone banking system becoming dependent on ECB liquidity has reduced somewhat given the improvement in money market conditions. ECB councillor Paramo said that the Spanish regional banking system must recapitalize if it is to improve lending to the real economy.
Germany's trade balance for July came in comfortably ahead of expectations at ?14.1bn (cons. ?12bn, prev. ?9.8 bn), illustrating the degree to which a weaker euro has boosted German exports. GDP figures for Germany and the Eurozone, due on Friday, are expected to show robust consensus-beating Q2 growth. Nevertheless, our European economists remain cautious on the outlook for H2. Fiscal consolidation is expected to take its toll, especially on Greece, Portugal and Spain, and the euro's recent rebound means that the exchange-rate boost which helped export-oriented Eurozone economies in recent months will gradually peter out.
We keep our 6m EURUSD 1.10/1.00 put spread trade recommendation.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00
The BoJ's two-day policy meeting is underway with a decision due at approximately 03:00GMT on Tuesday. The meeting is attracting more attention than usual given the yen's recent advance against the dollar, and the fact that the FOMC is due to announce its own policy decision later the same day. Further easing from the BoJ remains a possibility. An existing 3m liquidity facility is now fully subscribed, and either raising the ceiling on the facility above ?20trn, or extending the maturity beyond 3m could be considered. If the BoJ eases again, this would likely provide some support to USDJPY, although the Fed's actions, if any, are likely to be the dominant influence. Finally, we expect to hear final details on a new lending scheme, due to become operational at the end of August, which has been designed to encourage commercial banks to lend to growth industries.
Ex-BoJ Policy Board Member Hirano said that now is not the time for the BoJ to take additional easing measures, adding that Tokyo is unlikely to get consent from other nations if the MoF wishes to carry out actual FX intervention.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500
Given that the BoE chose not to adjust monetary policy at last week's meeting, we do not expect to find any major surprises in this week's inflation report. We remain short GBPCHF via a put spread with strikes at 1.6300 and 1.5425.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.9000, 3m 0.8500
June home loans fell -3.9% (cons. -2.0%, prev. +3.0%). Our Australia economists note that lending has effectively stabilised, in the wake of the RBA's +150bp of hikes to May. With the RBA now on hold - and unlikely to move before November - lending should drift higher over the rest of the year.
ANZ job ads rose +1.3% m/m, and suggests we should see further solid employment growth, with the next monthly employment report due on Thursday.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.0200, 3m 1.0200
The jobs report was very weak on Friday, showing a loss of -9.3k jobs in total in July. The decline of -139k in full time jobs will be a particular cause for concern. The 129.7k gain in part time jobs has cushioned the blow somewhat, and rising hourly wages suggest that income growth is still firm. Despite the weak numbers, we see room for further USDCAD downside as the BoC maintains its tightening bias at a time when the Fed shows no inclination towards hiking the Fed Funds Target. This week's data releases will be mostly second tier, although the market expects July housing starts, due on Wednesday, to fall to 188k (prev. 192.8k)
CHF Targets: EURCHF 1m 1.3700, 3m 1.3500
Attention this week will likely focus on consumer confidence, due on Tuesday, and PPI scheduled for release on Friday. After last week's weak CPI print, and given the SNB's next policy decision is fast approaching, upstream price pressure will likely attract even greater attention than usual.
FX Technicals
EURUSD BULLISH The gains are expected to target 1.3511 with next resistance lying at 1.3692. Near-term support comes in at 1.3119. USDJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 84.83; break of this level would expose next support at 81.85 ahead of 79.95 key support level. Near-term resistance holds at 86.66 ahead of 88.12 GBPUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.5969 Fibonacci level has opened up the way for further gains towards 1.6069 and 1.6458 next. Near-term support is at 1.5820. USDCHF BEARISH Overall focus is on 1.0131; break of the level would expose 0.9918. Near-term resistance at 1.0555 ahead of 1.0676. AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential is expected to target 0.9389 with scope for 0.9850 next. Near-term support comes in at 0.9033 ahead of 0.8896 USDCAD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.0587 and 0.9931 mark the key directional triggers. 1.0853 defines a key resistance level. EURCHF BULLISH Focus is on 1.4041; a break here is required to confirm the bullish trend. Initial support lies at 1.3730 ahead of 1.3511 EURGBP BEARISH Outlook is bearish; pressure on 0.8245 Fibonacci support break of which would expose 0.8068. Near-term resistance lies at 0.8416 ahead of 0.8532 EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross is trading within 115.19 and 110.02, which have now become the near-term directional triggers. 107.32 defines a key support level.
De ha visszajönnek a szabiról....
És az összes nagybank, nagybüfi dollár erősödésre fog játszani, mert különben elértéktelenedek a befektetéseik. Ez ilyen egyszerű. Csak ha még tovább húzzák a kisbüfik felfelé, akkor Niagara szerű "visszateszt" lesz, amit nehéz lesz megállítani.
1,596 környékén volt egy beszálló,csak lemaradtam. Naposon még tart a shortos rsi,de h4-en vissza pattanhat az 50-es szintről. Viszont van egy divergencia H4-en!
Szerintem ma volt a forduló,csak nem volt mögötte lendület. A holnapi FED miatt.De ezt majd ők úgy is eldöntik. :)
jaja, még reggel, de tarttom továbra is hogy csak konszolidálodik.
egyébként mindent zártam fed miatt, (maradék ami volt reggel beirtam) szinteket hadd ne irjak be de összeségében a maradék pozik -220 euro olt (huf aud, maradék dax.....) viszont a reggeli zárásokkal együtt 700 euro plusz :-)
