Azt látom a 2750-es shortom már szépen termel, de a GBP shortok is.
Azt látom a 2750-es shortom már szépen termel, de a GBP shortok is.
EURUSD-t a mai opciós zárások vonzani fogják 1,26 közelébe, mint a mágnes.
Jó, az hozzátartozik, hogy mindig a bojt felőli végén kell állni annak a bizonyosnak :D
A ráncigálás jó dolog. Többet lehet skalpolni, mint egy komplett sziú törzs :)
Morning Adviser Europe 9/9/2010 6:01:00 AM
Soveriegn Worries Ease
By Gareth Berry
Dollar performance was quite mixed during the Asia session. Although gains were made against the euro, the dollar lost ground to the yen. AUDUSD also pushed higher after another solid employment report from Australia. Both Asian and US equities finished modestly positive. Earlier, investors had taken some comfort from better auction results in Europe and the removal of some uncertainty from an Irish banking bail-out. EURUSD traded 1.2689-1.2759, USDJPY 83.60-84.03. There were few US data releases and the Fed's latest Beige Book reflected a slightly softer tone on the economy as officials noted "widespread signs of a deceleration." But they did note that there were signs of continuing growth. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, a non-voter this year but a voter in 2011, expects the "modest" recovery to continue but said monetary policy cannot fix labor market mismatch problems. Kocherlakota said the Fed decided to re-invest MBS proceeds partly to prevent potential deflation and said monetary policy is probably as accommodating as it can be at this point. He also downplayed comparisons between the US and the Japan and cited more flexible US markets as a reason. President Obama announced new policy proposals that the White House had been slowly rolling out this month but continues to face opposition leading up to the mid-term elections. The trade balance and initial jobless claims are due.
Research Spotlight "Ireland Needs Growth, ECB" UBS Global Economics, Fixed Income Strategy Ireland is in focus once again: sovereign spreads have widened and CDS have come under pressure as market attention has returned to the Irish banking sector and public finances. Ireland enjoyed a major credit boom until 2007, and the aftermath wil likely be long and painful. The government has responded decisively to the crisis, but in order to avoid debt-deflation, Ireland, more than any other country, requires a global economic recovery - and continued support from the ECB. Please see the "Ireland Needs Growth, ECB" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.
EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500 Investors got a brief reprieve from sovereign worries as the latest Portuguese debt auction went well and the Irish government sought some finality on its bailout of a nationalized bank. Portugal sold EUR 661mm of 3y bonds at an average yield of 4.086% (prev. 3.597%) and a bid/cover ratio of 1.9. For the 11y bond issue an average yield of 5.973% (prev. 5.312%) was reported with a b/c ratio of 2.6. As such the auction was slightly better than expected. Ireland's government changed its plans for the bank, announcing it would be split into a "good" bank and an asset recovery bank. The "good" bank will retain lender deposits while the recovery bank will run down its loans gradually. The arrangement has been sent for European Commission approval and new capital requirements are expected to be announced in October. This helped the euro as it removed some uncertainty on possible write downs and deposit withdrawals even though more capital is likely needed. But the final cost will not be known until the requirement for additional capital is announced. German exports in July unexpectedly dropped for the first time since April at -1.5% m/m and imports fell at -2.2%. The trade balance showed a surplus of ?12.7bn. German July industrial output disappointed at 0.1% m/m and Greek Q2 provisional GDP was also below estimates at -1.8% q/q. ECB Governing Council member Weber said Basel III negotiations will be concluded this weekend and talks are on track. He expects moderate growth with price stability and said steps taken by the Eurozone periphery are big enough in order to end discussions of state insolvency and that worries about deflation are unfounded. Nevertheless he also said that they must resist the temptation to declare that the crisis is over. We remain skeptical of rallies in EURUSD and look for more euro downside, in particular versus USD and CHF.
JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00 Finance Minister Noda said that simulated interventions are being conducted, implying that preparations are underway to test Japan's readiness for FX intervention. He also referred to data showing that China is buying Japanese T-bills, saying he felt it was "unnatural" that Japan could not buy Chinese bonds in return. This could be the first indication of official concern over China's apparent decision to invest in Japanese government securities. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said that the BoJ will guide policy with an eye on the yen's rise, and on stock market volatility. He said that the recent extension to the BoJ's liquidity operations was not aimed at dealing with FX matters.
AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1m 0.9000, 3m 0.8500 The employment report was stronger than expected overnight, with the economy adding another +30.9k jobs (cons. +25.0k, prev. +25.0k) in August. The mix between full-time and part-time employment was also very healthy, pointing to a robust economic recovery. Full-time jobs increased by +53.1k, faster than at any time since July 2008, and part-time jobs fell by -22.1k. Our economists have penciled in a hike in November.
GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.50, 3m 1.35 Halifax house prices in August rose more than expected at 0.2% m/m and industrial output was slightly below expectations at 0.3% m/m. Recent data has been soft, and our economist agrees with the MPC that there is only a negligible chance of a material inflation overshoot in the medium-term. The overall recovery is still not a done deal and as such we do not expect any changes. Should that occur, the BoE is unlikely to release an explanatory statement.
SEK Targets: EURSEK 1m 9.35, 3m 9.30 The Riksbank is scheduled to meet next on October 26, and today's CPI print will be a key contributor to the policy decision although, granted, developments overseas in the interim will also play a significant part. Consensus today is for a slight dip in the y/y reading for the headline rate.
CAD Targets: USDCAD 1m 1.0200, 3m 1.0200 The BoC raised the policy rate by 25bp, which surprised investors and boosted the Canadian dollar as consensus was split with only 13 out of 20 economists surveyed calling for a hike. The language again sounded somewhat cautious, though perhaps less so than many had feared. Officials were cautious both on domestic economic activity and on external growth. The statement noted that further reductions will have to be "carefully considered in light of the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook."
FX Technicals
AUDUSD clears 0.9222 EURUSD BEARISH Recovery held below 1.2933 thus bringing our focus back on 1.2588. Break of the level would expose next support lying at 1.2434 Fibonacci level. USDJPY BEARISH With the clearance of 83.60 bearish trend remains intact. Next support is at 79.75 key level. Short-term resistance is defined at 85.23 GBPUSD BEARISH Currently holds support at 1.5297; a break here would expose 1.5125/15 ahead of 1.4906. Near-term resistance lies at 1.5565 ahead of 1.5731 USDCHF BEARISH Still has room to go for 0.9918 ahead of 0.9786. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0239 ahead of 1.0466 AUDUSD BULLISH Climb through 0.9222 has opened up the way towards 0.9389 and 0.9850 next. Near-term support defined at 0.9055 ahead of 0.8771 key low USDCAD BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect a bullish run towards 1.0673 and 1.0853 next. Support holds at 1.0340 ahead of 1.0108 EURCHF BEARISH Next support at 1.2501 ahead of 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163 EURGBP BEARISH Clearance of 0.8249 has exposed 0.8142 and 0.8068 next. Near-term resistance is defined at 0.8390 ahead of 0.8532 EURJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure eyes 105.44, scope for next support at 100 psychological level. Resistance is at 111.19 *NOTE: The trend for each currency pair as defined in the table is determined by our proprietary model and is independent of our discretionary interpretation of price action
jenemet visszarántották hajnalban. mindegy azért pluszban stoppolódtam.
Nekem mindíg a legrégebben nyitottat zárja, nem tudok választani adott páron belüli több pozinál, mindegy melyikre teszek védőstoppot.
Briteknél adathalmaz, plusz BoE. Lesz ráncigálás.
8:30 Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn JUL -?7500 -?7401
8:30 Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn JUL -?4300 -?4262
8:30 Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) JUL -?3300 -?3260
11:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target SEP 200B 200B
11:00 BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 9-Sep 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Decision 9-Sep
mondjuk 2-300 pip már kiváló, sokkal kevesebbet feltételeztem
Oanda, és hamarosan újra FxPro
Igen, valahogy így csinálom. A pozijaim felét hagyom 2-300 pip nyerőig, a többivel ugrálok és próbálok 50 pipeket fogni.
Köszi a tanácsokat, tapasztaltabbtól mindig szívesen fogadja az ember.
Azt megkérdezhetném, te melyik cégnél kereskedsz?
igen, én is sokáig így csináltam: a bukókat kiülöd, aztán ha kis (amire azt mondod, elfogadható) nyerőbe kerülnek, zárod. A többit (gondolom, értelemszerűen a bukókat) hagyod dolgozni, vagyis megvárod, míg azok is nyerőbe kerülnek
Hány év? Sajnos benne voltam a Soros féle mókában is :( azóta vagyok nagyon óvatos. Mondjuk nekem nincs követő stoppom. Ha több tőkém lesz átmegyek egy céghez, ahol van. Az én manuális követőm úgy néz ki, hogy a sávosan nyitott pozikból mindig zárom azt, amin már elfogadható haszon van. A többi meg hadd dolgozzon...
Én is ismerem Kosztolány 4G szabályát, csak alkalmazni nehéz....
nekem nem. Erre használok követőt. És ha muszáj, elteszem a nyereséget. De nem cél a nyereség gyors leszüretelése, és ez óriási különbség. De évek múlva te is másképp fogod gondolni.
Mindenkinek más válik be, ez a szép benne :) Jön egy drawdown és oda az addigi összes nyereség.
btw nem ismerem, iforex nagy hatrany hogy nincs trailling stop, spreadek, nagyobbol elfogathatoak
Nekem most 2500 USD. A másik dolog. Tűzz ki egy célt magad elé, mennyi nyereséggel elégednél meg. Nálam ez most 1,5 % naponta. Ha mohó vagy nagyon hamar buksz... Mindig találsz jó belépőt. A GBPUSD-t pl. már harmadszor shortolom erről a szintről. Nagyon jó ez a hullámvasút :)
BTW, iforexről van valakinek tapasztalata? Milyen spreadet lehet kérni 3000 USD tőkére?
