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Morning Adviser Americas 9/14/2010 11:11:00 AM

Kan Win Boosts Yen

By Geoffrey Yu

USDJPY remains heavy after the DPJ leadership election resulted in victory for Prime Minister Kan. His current cabinet has not ruled out intervention, but there appears to be reluctance to do so given the lack of international support. We don't expect a buoyant USDJPY anytime soon, especially with the Fed having commenced Treasury purchases anew. That will cap US-Japan spreads. A -4.3 result in the economic sentiment component of Germany's Sept. Ifo survey has dulled the euro.

The currency union looks set to survive Q3 without much difficult but with growth still a problem and the banking sector still under scrutiny, upcoming quarters will provide sterner challenges. We continue to favour downside in EURUSD but there will be a lack of structural catalysts in the very short term.

EURUSD traded 1.2830-1.2910 and USDJPY 83.07-83.76. Eurozone equities are largely in negative territory but not significantly so.

Research Spotlight "What's Killing The Canaries" UBS Global Economics

We recently flagged a sharp drop in Korean exports as the 'canary in the coal mine' for global trade. With more weakness emerging in Asian export data, the critical question is, what exactly is killing these canaries? While the instinctive response is to blame the US consumer, the data does not back this up. As exporters don't sell directly to consumers, the slowdown indicates a drop-off in inventory growth, and looks likely to extend beyond Asia with the peaking of the inventory cycle. Please see the "What's Killing The Canaries" note on www.ubs.com/fx for details.

EUR Targets: EURUSD 1m 1.2800, 3m 1.1500

The ZEW survey surprised sharply to the downside with the sentiment survey registering a surprise negative print of -4.3. The current situation survey however was much stronger than expected at 59.9. Our economists note that the ZEW is not a very reliable leading indicator, but the figures are consistent with the view that Q3 will remain strong, but activity will falter afterwards.

ECB President Trichet said what was decided on Basel III would not hamper the global recovery and said he saw no deflation risk in advanced economies for now. Trichet did not offer any comments on monetary policy.

JPY Targets: USDJPY 1m 85.00, 3m 95.00

Prime Minister Kan won the DPJ leadership vote overnight. The reaction in currency markets was limited as his victory was already being priced in over the past few sessions. JGBs also benefited as Kan's fiscal ambitions were weaker, but the JPY remains a pressing issue. Overnight Finance Minister Noda said a rapid, prolonged JPY rise would be bad for the economy and again refused to rule out intervention, but action still appears to be remote. Industrial Production came in at -0.2%m/m.

NZD Targets: NZDUSD 1m 0.74, 3m 0.70

The NZ dollar was hurt by the publication of retail sales for July that showed an unexpected contraction of -0.4% m/m (cons. 0.0%, prev. 1.0%).

Australia's business confidence survey improved to 11 in August from 2 previously. The business conditions component was unchanged.

We do not expect any change in the OCR at this week's RBNZ meeting..

GBP Targets: GBPUSD 1m 1.5000, 3m 1.3500

The decline in UK house prices is accelerating according to the RICS house balance for August. The reading came in at -32% (cons. -12%, prev. -8%).

Investors have been concerned about elevated inflation readings but BoE MPC members believe the data should start to come back down. We should see a slight easing in the y/y figures for both CPI and RPI, which could temper investor expectations for the BoE at this stage in the recovery.

In figures released overnight, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.1%y.y, but monthly sequential inflation was again higher than expected at 0.5%. Martin Weale, in his testimony, brushed off any suggestion that there was scope for changing in the inflation target, but implicitly acknowledged that inflationary pressures were somewhat stronger than expected, calling the OBR's 4% output gap estimate "plausible".